Regardless of a dramatic common season punctuated by an investigation over alleged sign-stealing, No. 1 Michigan rolled to a 13-0 file heading into the School Soccer Playoff matchup within the Rose Bowl towards No. 4 Alabama. However school soccer coaches The Athletic spoke to for this scouting report are satisfied Michigan hasn’t been the identical workforce because the NCAA’s investigation turned public.
“They’re totally different now,” stated one Huge Ten head coach. “It makes an enormous distinction to know when blitzes are coming, so once you decide it up, you’ll be able to actually assault it. After that (investigation and resignation of staffer Connor Stalions), they weren’t at all times on the proper place on the proper time.”
The Athletic interviewed 10 Huge Ten coaches, scouts and analysts to interrupt down Michigan and the way it matches up with a late-blooming Alabama workforce. They had been granted anonymity to offer candid observations concerning the Wolverines.
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Scouting QB J.J. McCarthy: Nonetheless the man?
Coaches mused on whether or not the decline in J.J. McCarthy’s manufacturing because the NCAA investigation turned public was because of the signal stealing (or lack thereof), harm or Michigan’s backloaded schedule — or a mix of the entire above, the latter being most vital.
McCarthy threw 14 touchdowns within the first seven video games and averaged 10.6 yards per try; within the final six, he threw 5 touchdowns and averaged 7.7 yards per try. Within the Wolverines’ last 5 video games, McCarthy solely threw one landing cross.
“It does make you marvel,” stated one defensive analyst whose workforce confronted Michigan within the final month of the season. “Going into our sport, I assumed he was among the many finest within the nation. Afterward, I didn’t assume the identical. As soon as all that stuff occurred, he simply doesn’t look the identical. I don’t know if he’s damage. I assumed he was a Heisman candidate. Heisman quarterbacks don’t throw solely eight passes in a sport. I believe earlier than, he was prepared for it and he was assured.”
“I don’t know what’s inflicting him to be hesitant and never as decisive as he was earlier,” stated a Huge Ten head coach who performed Michigan. “He appears out of sync these days.”
One of many head coaches was adamant that the Wolverines had a big benefit with signal-stealing intel, however he additionally identified that Michigan’s schedule was backloaded. The Wolverines confronted the nation’s prime three defenses (by yards allowed per sport) of their final 4 video games — and their different opponent was Maryland, which ranked No. 20 within the nation in yards per play allowed. Coaches additionally purchase that McCarthy has been bothered by a leg harm.
“I’ve heard he’s been banged up because the Penn State sport,” stated a Huge Ten head coach. “He should make performs together with his ft if Michigan’s gonna have an opportunity towards Alabama. You ain’t gonna large boy Alabama (by simply relying in your working backs). I believe Alabama is far more gifted. Michigan’s offense will not be dynamic sufficient on the ability positions. Alabama’s gonna get heavy-handed with them. If Alabama can cease the run, Michigan has no likelihood. None.”
McCarthy has had some large performances in powerful spots. The Wolverines had been depleted final yr at Ohio State, and he led them to a 45-23 comeback win when he threw three landing passes and ran for a fourth.
“I do assume J.J. could be very gifted,” stated one of many head coaches. “If he’s wholesome, they’re gonna should let him run extra. When you’ll be able to run like that, it places a lot stress in your protection.”
“That’s the largest factor he provides — it’s the unscripted scrambles,” a Huge Ten defensive coordinator stated. “If all the pieces’s lined, he can get the primary down and transfer the chains for them.”
The vast majority of the coaches interviewed stated they imagine McCarthy should play his finest sport of the season — and doubtless his life — for Michigan to beat Alabama.
The Wolverines have an explosive weapon in Donovan Edwards (proper) however will miss Zak Zinter, who broke his leg in November. (Rick Osentoski / USA At present)
Scouting the O-line: The perfect within the Huge Ten
Within the earlier two seasons, Michigan led the Huge Ten in speeding behind an offensive line that received the Joe Moore Award. This yr, Michigan ranks sixth within the league in speeding, averaging 162 yards per sport — a decline of 77 per sport from 2022.
“That O-line appears fairly. They’re like three deep of fairly guys, however you watch the movie and Indiana stuffed them,” one of many defensive analysts stated. “They’re not shifting you off the ball such as you’d assume.”
What figures to be extra problematic for Michigan is shedding standout proper guard Zak Zinter, who broke his leg through the Ohio State sport. Proper sort out Karsen Barnhart shifted inside to exchange Zinter, and Trente Jones, who had performed lots this season as a jumbo tight finish in 13 personnel units, has turn into the best sort out.
“They’re not so good as they had been up entrance final yr,” stated one other defensive analyst. “The middle (Olu Oluwatimi) was lots higher. This child (Drake Nugent) is strong, however not pretty much as good. Zinter is superb, however now they don’t have him. (Trevor) Keegan is hard, however we thought they had been higher at sort out final yr. Barnhart has been struggling. He’s most likely higher suited at guard.”
“I believe Alabama will give them bother with their entrance,” a Huge Ten head coach added.
Regardless of this decline, many of the coaches nonetheless considered Michigan’s offensive line as the perfect within the Huge Ten. “They’re large and really sound essentially and disciplined,” stated one of many head coaches. “They’ll test Alabama’s oil.”
Scouting the run sport: On Corum and Edwards
The largest star on offense has been working again Blake Corum, who had his 2022 season lower brief by an harm to his left knee that required surgical procedure. The 5-foot-8, 215-pound senior has run for twenty-four touchdowns this season, however his yards per carry are down from 5.9 final yr to 4.7.
“Blake doesn’t seem like he did final yr,” one of many defensive analysts stated. “He doesn’t have the juice. He’s getting chased down.”
In 2022, Corum had 15 runs of 20 yards or longer in 12 video games. This yr, he has seven in 13 video games.
“I believe Corum is absolutely good,” stated a Huge Ten head coach. “He’s simply so highly effective. I don’t assume he has the velocity that some SEC guys have, however I do assume he’s gotten higher. He makes them go.”
“(Michigan) performs to his strengths,” stated a Huge Ten defensive backs coach. “(Corum) can’t take the 30-yard run and go 60. However he’s a bull. He’s a one-cut man. Not a home-run risk, however he’s actually, actually good within the pink zone and actually good on test downs. ”
Donovan Edwards is extra of the big-play risk. In 2022, Edwards blew the Ohio State sport open by speeding for 216 yards (most of them on two lengthy runs). However the former five-star recruit hasn’t been as efficient this yr. He’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry, down considerably from 7.1 a yr in the past.
“He has elite velocity,” stated a Huge Ten head coach. “I don’t assume he has nice imaginative and prescient or nice really feel, but when he has a crease he can go. He’s simply extra of an athlete (than Corum). I don’t assume he has the persistence.”
“I used to be actually petrified of (Edwards), particularly on third down,” stated the Huge Ten defensive backs coach. “They’ve a very good bundle with him.”
Scouting the cross sport: Michigan’s greatest weak spot?
Edwards’ versatility (30 catches) offers extra punch to a passing assault that lacks big-time threats at vast receiver. In accordance with the coaches interviewed, the receiving corps is the weakest place group. Roman Wilson is the chief in yardage (662 on 41 receptions with 11 touchdowns) whereas Cornelius Johnson is tops in catches (42 for 567 yards and one TD). Sophomore tight finish Colston Loveland has 40 catches for 572 yards and 4 TDs.
Mentioned one other Huge Ten defensive backs coach: “(Wilson) is an effective participant, however we didn’t concern him. While you watch the tape, he’s working a bunch of over routes. He performs onerous. We thought (Johnson) was common. He’s tall and appears fairly on the market, however he’s stiff and never nice out and in of his breaks. (Freshman Semaj Morgan) is wiggly and much more dynamic than Wilson, however he’s not very polished.
“Loveland is a very good route runner, however he can’t block. (AJ Barner) is a whole tight finish. He can’t run like Loveland. I like him. (Backup tight finish Max Bredeson) is sweet. You understand they’re working the ball when he’s within the sport.”
“Roman Wilson is the one one we had been apprehensive about,” stated a Huge Ten head coach. “We thought we needed to double him. He’s actually good at getting out and in of his breaks. We didn’t assume we might play man on him. Barner could be very strong. He’s large and an excellent blocker. Loveland is elite. He runs like a large receiver.”
Kris Jenkins (left) might be a prime NFL Draft decide, coach Jim Harbaugh says. Jenkins’ agility is exceptional. (Steven Branscombe / Getty Photos)
Scouting the protection: There might be stress to step up
Michigan ranks No. 4 within the Huge Ten in yards per play allowed, however that’s additionally adequate to rank No. 4 within the nation. (Sure, it is perhaps an indicator of the caliber of offenses within the convention this season.) However one factor is definite: The Wolverines haven’t confronted a quarterback who can run like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. The final actually good working quarterback Michigan confronted was in final season’s CFP semifinal towards TCU when Max Duggan ran for 57 yards and two TDs in a 51-45 shootout.
Duggan ran a 4.52 40 on the 2023 NFL Mix. And Milroe is even sooner.
When Michigan made the CFP two years in the past, it featured a celebrity on protection: edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Wolverines don’t have a participant like that this yr, however coaches imagine this can be a higher unit total.
“I like that D-line lots,” stated a Huge Ten head coach. “They’re actually, actually deep. (Kris) Jenkins and (Jaylen) Harrell are superb gamers.”
Head coach Jim Harbaugh predicts Jenkins, a 307-pound senior, might be a top-10 decide within the 2024 NFL Draft. The son of the previous NFL star with the identical identify has exceptional agility, clocking a 4.33 brief shuttle and vertically leaping 34 inches.
Harrell leads the Wolverines with eight TFLs and 6.5 sacks. The opposite edge rusher, Braiden McGregor, is subsequent with 7.5 TFLs, and Mason Graham, Josiah Stewart, Rayshaun Benny and Derrick Moore all have at the very least 5 TFLs. Kenneth Grant, a freakishly athletic 340-pound sophomore, has 4 TFLs and has impressed rival coaches.
Mentioned one Huge Ten head coach: “They’ve pushed the best buttons on that dude. He’s received freaky athleticism for 340. Holy smokes!”
Linebacker Junior Colson is Michigan’s main tackler with 79. He and Michael Barrett (52 tackles) are very skilled, strong gamers. Not one of the coaches interviewed would describe both as elite, however each had been thought-about sensible and good scheme matches. The headliner of Michigan’s again finish is nickel Mike Sainristil, an undersized 5-foot-9, 180-pound transformed wideout who’s turn into the emotional chief of the protection.
NFL scouts could also be leery of Sainristil due to his dimension, however Huge Ten coaches are believers. Sainristil, the MVP of the Huge Ten Championship Recreation, leads the workforce with 5 interceptions to go along with 30 tackles, 4 TFLs, six passes damaged up and two pressured fumbles.
“He’s their most dynamic man,” stated one other Huge Ten head coach. “He’s nice with the ball in his palms. He’ll preserve proving individuals flawed. He’ll be an excellent NFL participant, I promise you.”
“I really like that child,” stated an offensive coordinator who confronted Michigan within the first half of the season. “He scares you on the market as a result of he has that knack for making the massive performs.”
Sophomore Will Johnson, a former five-star recruit, is second on the workforce with three interceptions and in addition drew reward.
“He’s a big-time expertise,” stated the OC. “We didn’t need to (mess) with him.”
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Who wins: Michigan or Alabama?
Michigan opened as a two-point favourite over Alabama, however the line is down to 1 in some locations. Alabama being the underdog didn’t appear proper to many of the coaches, and the bulk imagine Alabama will beat Michigan. A few of that is perhaps resulting from the truth that Michigan has misplaced every of its two Playoff semifinal video games, and Harbaugh’s six consecutive losses in bowl video games is obtrusive.
“What has Jim realized?” a Huge Ten head coach requested. “Are his guys gonna be contemporary and able to go or worn down?”
“I believe it’s the identical outdated factor with Michigan,” stated a Huge Ten secondary coach. “They’re extraordinarily gifted, but when somebody can maintain up up entrance with them, I believe they’re simply too one-dimensional. … They’ve received to get explosive performs on the perimeter someplace, and people are gonna be onerous to come back by as a result of Alabama can match up with them exterior and nonetheless be stern sufficient towards the run.
“Michigan goes to should play such a clear sport.”
One head coach stated he wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan received — however he’s choosing Alabama. “If Milroe performs like he has these days, I believe that’ll be an excessive amount of for Michigan. There’s no person like him within the Huge Ten. (Alabama) has discovered methods to use him, and that’s scary.”
One other head coach did level out that Michigan has the “type of stuff” that retains the Wolverines profitable — in spite of everything, Michigan is 13-0 regardless of its head coach being suspended for nearly half of the season, together with throughout its hardest stretch.
“They don’t have any superstars, however they’re robust they usually’ve received a bunch of actually good school gamers,” he stated. “They’ve a very good tradition. None of them offers a s— who will get the credit score. These guys clearly love taking part in with one another. They’ve the chemistry to win a championship.”
(High photograph: Justin Casterline / Getty)