New Delhi: With a 12.91 per cent vote share in Gujarat and 5 meeting seats below its belt, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Get together (AAP) has earned the tag of a state get together within the coastal state.
Gujarat is the the fourth state the place the AAP acquired this recognition after Delhi, Punjab and Goa. With this, the AAP is all set to turn out to be a nationwide get together after a proper nod from the Election Fee of India.
Elections to the 182-member Gujarat meeting have been held in two phases on 1 and 5 December.
Outcomes declared Thursday present that the get together’s efficiency has made the AAP a 3rd power in a historically bipolar state, which it’s possible to make use of as a launchpad to challenge itself as a nationwide challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP). Nonetheless, on the similar time, specialists consider the get together can be rising as “a nationwide spoiler for the Congress”.
Tripura, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Telangana, Meghalaya, Jammu & Kashmir are slated to go to polls subsequent yr.
Though the AAP doesn’t have a lot presence there, it’s possible to make use of the momentum of Gujarat to attempt to make forays into these states — particularly in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana — which is able to go to polls in November-December subsequent yr.
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Nationwide get together standing
Based on the Election Fee, a celebration is accorded nationwide standing if its candidates safe at the least six per cent of the votes polled in 4 states or extra, and if it has at the least 4 MPs within the Lok Sabha.
The AAP mentioned it’s a matter of pleasure that the get together will probably be getting the coveted tag. “This is able to be taking place for the primary time within the historical past {that a} get together has turn out to be a nationwide get together in simply 10 years,” senior AAP and Delhi Deputy CM Manish Sisodia mentioned in an announcement Wednesday.
Prof. Hari Desai, a senior political analyst, mentioned that the AAP was initially seen as a ‘vote-cutter’ in Gujarat for each the Congress and the BJP relying on the seat and its demography. “As an alternative of changing into a challenger to Modi, it’s now a spoiler for the Congress within the state. In areas like Saurashtra and in some seats in north Gujarat, it additionally ate into the BJP seats, however Kejriwal has made severe injury to the Congress vote financial institution in 48 seats,” he mentioned.
Notably, out of the whole 48 seats in Saurashtra area, whereas the AAP gained 4 seats, the BJP secured 39 seats and the Congress 4.
This yr’s election in Gujarat was a status battle for Modi and Shah as BJP’s numbers have been falling steadily in each election since 2002.
“BJP gained with a majority of 127 seats in 2002. The post-Godhra riots elections state of affairs was delicate. However since then, the numbers continued to plummet. In 2007, it was 117 for the BJP and 115 in 2012. In 2017, BJP gained 99 seats. The get together was dealing with big embarrassment,” mentioned Desai.
“Gujarat which has typically seen a fierce Congress-BJP battle and the elections gained with a really small margin by both get together, has seen a distinct image. The AAP has performed a task in spoiling the Congress’ electoral fortune,” he added.
Centre for Coverage Analysis (CPR) fellow and political analyst Rahul Verma most popular to name the AAP as “an rising get together at nationwide stage”.
“For the time being, it’s troublesome to say if the AAP is rising as a nationwide challenger to the BJP or a nationwide spoiler (for the Congress). It’s too far-fetched of an assumption, however actually it’s going to eat into Congress’ vote share in different states as nicely. I believe it’s an rising get together at nationwide stage…,” he mentioned.
“However none of that is computerized. It additionally depends upon what sort of politics they (the AAP) do and the way they conduct themselves in future.”
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Congress & BJP on AAP’s position
For Congress in Gujarat, the AAP’s problem has been actual. Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee working president Rutvik Makwana agreed that the AAP has harmed the get together’s vote financial institution of the backward teams like tribals and dalits.
“The AAP has performed its position in Gujarat which it was speculated to… there may very well be a hurt to the Congress vote financial institution however not a lot. The AAP has been working with the precept that it wished to have an effect on the Congress vote financial institution and cease it from rising to energy. I don’t assume it may be a challenger to the BJP...”
The BJP doesn’t contemplate the AAP a severe competitors, with BJP spokesperson R. P. Singh mentioned the Kejriwal-led get together wants one other 50 years to succeed in the place the BJP is.
“Their Uttarakhand CM candidate Ajay Kothiyal joined the BJP. Tomorrow, even when some individuals win, they may also ultimately come to the BJP. They’re nowhere within the south, west and within the larger states. The Congress and the AAP work hand in hand — in Himachal, the AAP gave a clear walkover to the Congress, and in Gujarat, the Congress left the battle for the AAP,” he contended.
One other BJP spokesperson Shehzad Poonawalla echoed Singh’s sentiment. “No race is run by wanting behind; race is run by wanting within the entrance… We have a look at how we will attempt to win the mandate of each Indian — in that state of affairs who’s second or third or the challenger turns into inconsequential,” he mentioned.
(Edited by Anumeha Saxena)
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