With the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) endeavor a base revision train and enlargement of its information indicators, the important thing financial datasets — GDP, IIP and CPI — will see a brand new base from subsequent yr onwards, MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg mentioned. In an interview with Aanchal Journal, Garg additionally mentioned that the weights and gadgets for the brand new retail inflation basket will now be linked with Family Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24 as a substitute of the sooner choice to derive it from HCES 2022-23. Edited excerpts:
At what stage is the statistics ministry on revision of base years for GDP, IIP and CPI? By when can we anticipate the bottom revision?
The bottom yr revision train of Gross Home Product (GDP), Index of Industrial Manufacturing (IIP) and Shopper Worth Index (CPI) is at the moment underway. For GDP, the brand new sequence is scheduled to be launched on February 27, 2026 with monetary yr 2022-23 as base yr. For IIP, 2022 -23 has been tentatively recognized because the revised base. IIP on revised base can be launched from 2026-27. For CPI, 2024 has been recognized because the revised base yr because the merchandise basket and the weightage of the gadgets can be determined based mostly on the NSO’s Family Shopper Expenditure Survey (HCES) performed in 2023-24. The brand new CPI sequence is anticipated to be printed from the primary quarter of 2026.
You talked about that the merchandise basket and the gadgets’ weightage for inflation can be determined based mostly on HCES 2023-24. Among the earlier statements from the Ministry had identified that the merchandise basket can be based mostly on HCES 2022-23. So, is it 2022-23 or 2023-24?
Initially, the Ministry determined to make use of 2022-23 HCES information for deriving weights and merchandise basket for CPI base updation. Now since information for HCES 2023-24 is launched and out there to be used, the Ministry has determined to make use of the most recent information that’s HCES 2023-24 information for deriving weights and merchandise basket for the brand new sequence.
How are the shares of segments within the CPI basket going to alter? There have been indications earlier that the housing section will transcend the federal government lodging to seize the true image of leases and housing costs. What are the opposite gadgets that will probably be included afresh or see a tweak within the present inflation basket?
For the brand new CPI sequence with base yr 2024, the merchandise basket will probably be based mostly on information from HCES 2023–24. The finalisation of each the merchandise basket and the weighting diagram is at the moment in progress.
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Within the new sequence, dwellings offered by the federal government or employers won’t be coated. To raised seize the true image of rental and housing costs, rental information from rural areas is being explored.
In December 2024, MoSPI had floated a dialogue paper on the right way to put Public Distribution System (PDS) gadgets, free social transfers, within the new retail inflation index. How has been the response? How has the Ministry determined to incorporate the PDS gadgets within the new inflation index?
The methodology for incorporating free PDS gadgets in CPI is underneath dialogue within the Ministry. MOSPI will launch a white paper on the methodology within the public area after its finalisation.
As a part of its enlargement of statistical indicators, what are the brand new databases being tapped by the MoSPI? What are the collaborations being finished with different departments and ministries to enhance the statistical indicators of MoSPI?
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In GDP calculation, along with the usage of information from Controller Basic of Accounts, MCA-21, the Reserve Financial institution of India (RBI), and so on. as was finished within the earlier base revision train, use of GST information, E-Vahan portal, UPI transaction information from NPCI, and so on. (will probably be finished) by NSO. MoSPI has tapped the GSTN database for conducting Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises (ASSSE), which is new within the NSS ecosystem.
For the brand new CPI sequence, MoSPI is increasing its strategy by exploring different information sources, corresponding to on-line platforms for airfare, rail fare, OTT platforms and administrative data for value information of petrol, diesel and LPG. Discussions are ongoing with IRCTC, the Ministry of Railways, and the Petroleum Planning and Evaluation Cell (PPAC) underneath the Ministry of Petroleum and Pure Fuel for direct switch of information for integration in CPI.
The Ministry is exploring the usage of scanner information and net scraping to reinforce the accuracy, effectivity and comprehensiveness of value information assortment. The opportunity of accumulating value information from e-commerce web sites can be being thought-about.
When is the following Financial Census going to be launched? What would be the modifications within the statistical design for it?
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Approval for the conduct of the following Financial Census is awaited. Preparatory actions for a similar are underway. The EC will start as quickly because the approval course of is accomplished.
This time, the Ministry intends to make EC tech-driven by making use of end-to-end digital options having modules for information assortment by means of cell units, information supervision & monitoring, information processing & report era and dissemination dashboard.
The Ministry additionally introduced out the forward-looking non-public capex survey final month. For the reason that response fee was low at 58.3%, a caveat was given to see the findings as indicative and consultant of primarily bigger enterprises. How will the survey outcomes be expanded and refined going forward?
To enhance the response fee and improve the standard and representativeness of the Ahead-Trying Non-public Company CAPEX Survey, the Ministry plans a number of strategic interventions:
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Information Consumer Convention on CAPEX survey has been organised on Could 27, 2025 in Hyderabad to sensitise researchers on the findings of the primary survey.
The Regional Places of work of the Discipline Operations Division will conduct focused consciousness and outreach campaigns to enhance visibility and participation amongst enterprises throughout areas.
Collaborations with key business our bodies and enterprise chambers will probably be undertaken to construct belief, handle issues, and spotlight the significance of collaborating within the survey. The pattern measurement will probably be expanded to offset non-response bias, guaranteeing a extra strong and statistically dependable dataset that higher represents the broader non-public company sector.
Discipline officers will probably be deployed to help enterprises in filling out the survey accurately, guaranteeing higher information high quality and enhancing the general response fee. Internet portal will embrace user-friendly navigation, built-in chatbot help, FAQs, and clearer directions to facilitate smoother self-compilation by respondents.
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The Ministry had earlier detailed plans to undertake Home Tourism Expenditure Survey, Nationwide Family Journey Survey and Well being Survey. What’s the standing of those surveys?
The survey on Well being Expenditure has began from January 2025 and the sphere work will probably be performed until December 2025. The outcomes are anticipated by the tip of first quarter of 2026.
The surveys on Home Tourism Expenditure Survey and Nationwide Family Journey Survey are deliberate to be launched from July 2025. These are additionally year-long surveys and fieldwork for a similar will proceed upto June 2026.
The Ministry is planning different surveys such because the service sector survey that can be tapping into the information from the GSTN. What do you propose to cowl by means of that survey? When are the outcomes anticipated?
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Service sector in India is rising quickly and its contribution to the GDP of the nation is the most important in recent times. However there isn’t any complete publicly out there database of the included service sector.
The contribution of the included service sector in GDP is captured by means of the evaluation of the information on revenue and loss accounts and stability sheets, filed by the businesses, to the MCA. NSO does this train for all of the included firms which have filed information to MCA. Nonetheless, MCA information doesn’t present any state-level info and additional the information will not be out there in public area. This lack of complete granular information at state stage for the included service sector enterprises makes it troublesome to evaluate the sector’s efficiency at state stage. Just like the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) offering information for the registered manufacturing sector, Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises (ASSSE) goals to bridge the hole for the included service sector. ASSSE plans to utilise GSTN information as a body for the survey.
A pilot examine on this survey has simply been carried out and findings of the identical have been printed within the type of Technical Report on April 30, 2025. The experiences gained throughout the pilot are being harnessed to launch a full-fledged survey on ASSSE, which is anticipated to begin from January 2026. The outcomes of the identical could also be anticipated in 2027.
MoSPI has now began with a month-to-month bulletin for labour drive indicators. What are the challenges and benefits in rising the frequency of the dataset?
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As we all know, policymakers want labour drive indicators such because the proportion of individuals within the labor market, together with those that are working and people who are searching for work (LFPR), proportion of inhabitants that’s employed (WPR) or the proportion of inhabitants that’s unemployed (UR) to trace the labour market and well timed coverage interventions.
The PLFS launched in 2017 offered quarterly estimates of the mentioned labour drive indicators for city areas solely and the general nation stage labour market estimates together with these of the agricultural areas additionally, had been out there solely on the annual foundation.
With a purpose to handle this subject, a revamped PLFS has been launched from January 2025 which is able to present month-to-month and quarterly PLFS estimates of labour drive indicators for each rural and concrete areas. This can give well timed insights into the labour market, for higher coverage choices.
The principle problem in producing the month-to-month estimates from PLFS was the change in sampling technique and enhance in pattern measurement. Within the new PLFS 2025 the variety of households to be surveyed is somewhat over 2.72 lakh, which is sort of 2.6 occasions larger than the sooner pattern measurement of 1.02 lakh households being coated as much as December 2024. This wanted extra resource-mobilisation.
How will the problems within the new PLFS sequence corresponding to comparability with earlier numbers and better commonplace error get addressed? Will there be a again sequence?
On the difficulty of comparability of the estimates it must be appreciated that the PLFS pattern design has been modified considerably although the conceptual framework masking the ideas, definitions and measurement framework for measuring employment and unemployment has remained unchanged. Therefore, the estimates of PLFS may be in contrast over time accounting for these features.
Concerning the precision of the estimates, because the pattern measurement has been enhanced considerably, it’s anticipated that the sampling error will probably be diminished.
For the reason that PLFS pattern design has modified, the change in design can’t be replicated prior to now PLFS surveys. Therefore, it won’t be attainable to generate a again sequence estimate.
The brand new PLFS has an enhanced pattern measurement. It additionally has included further questions on training, land possession and households’ hire revenue, pension and remittances. Has the information been collected? How and when do you propose to launch it?
The sector work of the revamped PLFS has began from January 2025. Some further questions to gather info from the individuals surveyed on years spent in formal training are collected with a view to generate estimates of Imply Years of Education (MYS).
As well as, provision has been made to gather info on the family stage on earnings from totally different sources like hire from land and constructing, pension, remittances and so on. by means of single shot questions. These questions are basically included to have a greater clarification of the exercise participation of the inhabitants as many a occasions individuals declaring them out of labour drive could also be discovered to be having pension, remittances and so on. to help them.
It might be famous right here that these are collected by means of single shot questions on the family stage to maintain the main target of the survey interview on employment unemployment particulars of the individuals. Questions on land possession had been beforehand collected in quinquennial employment unemployment rounds additionally.
The information will probably be launched as unit stage information together with the PLFS Annual launch. No separate tabulations on this stuff have been deliberate.
What was the intent behind introducing these further questions on training, land possession and hire, remittances and so on? What’s the further image that you just hope to get from this? And are there some information assortment challenges that you just envisage right here?
The training associated questions are launched to gather info on years spent in formal training. This can then be used to generate estimates of Imply Years of Education (MYS). The indicator MYS is a crucial indicator to evaluate the standard of the human capital and is utilized in computation of a number of international indices.
The questions on pension, hire, remittances and so on. have been launched to gather info on the family stage on incomes from totally different sources like hire from land and constructing, pension, remittances and so on. These questions are basically included to have a greater clarification of the exercise participation of the inhabitants as many occasions individuals could also be discovered to be having pension, remittances and so on. to help them.
Nonetheless, it’s worthwhile to say that these questions aren’t included to generate family stage revenue estimates as the identical require an in depth centered enquiry.
Concerning challenges, some difficulties had been confronted by the surveyors whereas accumulating info on family incomes by means of curiosity in financial savings and funding solely.
No different issue has been confronted in accumulating info with respect to the brand new further gadgets included in PLFS schedule until date.