For the second consecutive season, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs enter the Tremendous Bowl as an underdog. They defeated the favored Philadelphia Eagles final season and can attempt to knock off the favored San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Will it really feel like an upset if Kansas Metropolis makes it occur? The Chiefs possess the last word edge in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who’s more healthy this season than final and has performed brilliantly by means of a lot of the playoffs.
Every year at the moment, I ask a group of NFL coaches which crew they’re selecting to win the Tremendous Bowl and why. Our panel fared fairly effectively final season, with the primary coach accurately selecting the Chiefs to win by three.
4 coaches weighed in with predictions this yr. We decide up the dialog with a defensive coach’s insights into what bothers 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, and whether or not the Chiefs are well-equipped to use this particular vulnerability.
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Defensive coach
The Combating Taylor Swifts are taking part in higher protection than the Niners proper now, and that may very well be the distinction. San Francisco has to play higher on protection to win. The 49ers are nonetheless harmful and violent, however they’re giving up extra yards and performs. I believe they’ll play fairly good, however in the event you ask in my intestine, I’d nonetheless suppose Kansas Metropolis pulls it out.
Affecting Brock Purdy is among the greatest keys to this recreation. The groups that give Purdy issues are those which might be in a position to have an effect on him within the pocket. Cleveland was in a position to try this. Detroit couldn’t have an effect on him that method, however the Chiefs can. They do a very good job of getting their palms up. That’s an enormous deal towards Brock. They will do a very good job of affecting not solely the longer throws however the faster throws in any respect the completely different launch angles.
Purdy’s energy is how robust his decrease physique is. George Kittle’s quote was actually humorous when he mentioned Purdy seems like a type of little water dragons working throughout the water. That’s precisely what Purdy seems like. His legs are robust as hell. However when you’ll be able to push the pocket to his entrance foot, he struggles. It’s onerous to get there as a result of typically they throw it quick, however I believe the Chiefs have a capability to try this.
When individuals get to Purdy’s entrance foot, the ball will tail and drag or drift. Just like the one he threw into the Packer guy’s belly. He couldn’t get full twist out of his hips and it floated. It’s simpler mentioned than accomplished to have an effect on Purdy on this method. The 49ers know what they’re doing, and Purdy is actually good, and Kyle is nice at calling it, however I believe the Chiefs with 4 (rushers) can do this a few of the time.
(Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) goes to stress and likewise play his two-high mixture coverages. It’s onerous to play mixture coverages when the 49ers get all people out. They’ve positionless gamers. (Christian) McCaffrey goes to be a wideout, Deebo (Samuel) goes to be within the backfield and 44 (Kyle Juszczyk) goes to be in every single place. Whenever you play them in split-safety protection they usually can see it and get it out, the matchups will be actually good.
The Chiefs don’t all the time deal with effectively if you get them in house. Steve has accomplished such an excellent job this yr of not letting that occur. In different years, you can isolate their guys. All of Kyle’s guys are 6 ft or 6-1, 215 and might run after contact with nice palms and anger. That will be their benefit if they will discover methods to get across the D-line after which get these guys going.
I additionally suppose San Francisco will assault the sides within the run recreation, like Kyle did with Atlanta versus New England within the Tremendous Bowl. If you will get round Kansas Metropolis’s inside and pressure guys apart from (Justin) Reid to deal with, you are able to do some issues. However you gotta get round their massive guys. I believe Kyle will discover a method to try this, however I belief the Chiefs a little bit extra.
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Inside 49ers-Chiefs Tremendous Bowl matchup: What to observe when the Niners have the ball
Defensive coordinator No. 1
That is going to be a very attention-grabbing recreation as a result of Spags has that protection rolling, and I believe it’s going to create issues. They’ll be capable of get after Brock Purdy. Spags will include some good schemes to at the very least make Purdy suppose, throw his rhythm off.
The 49ers, that entire crew is constructed off a front-running mentality. After they play with a lead, they only pounce they usually’re higher, they’re extra athletic, their expertise shines. After they play from behind, it’s often completely different. Towards Detroit, they got here again. I’ll give them credit score there, however Detroit royally screwed that up. What occurred was not repeatable.
What it’s important to do with the 49ers is match them early. I might take the ball and attempt to rating. Inexperienced Bay did that. I do know it’s only 7-0 early and doesn’t matter, however in the event you rating early, you aren’t in response to them.
Mahomes will make the precise performs when they should. He’s been defending the ball, which he hadn’t been doing the primary half of the season as a lot. Individuals must honor Rashee Rice now. He has developed. MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) has develop into extra constant.
The 49ers’ protection has proven all through the playoffs they’ll get the ball moved on them. They don’t have many solutions. You hit their gentle spots and don’t let their rushers get going they usually don’t get takeaways, you’re effective. The protection system isn’t elaborate. They’ve bought one good nook, one security taking part in rather well.
When you could have a man like Andy Reid over there with Patrick Mahomes, they’re going to seek out these gentle spots. Andy is OK taking 5 (yards) from Travis Kelce on a catch-and-run. It’s simply onerous to go towards Reid and Mahomes.
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Defensive coordinator No. 2
The higher crew might be San Francisco, however the Eagles have been in all probability a greater crew final yr, and it got here right down to Patrick Mahomes.
For San Francisco, a lot of it’s recreation circulation. It’s to not say that Brock Purdy can’t come from behind. I’m not making an attempt to say that. However I believe they’re a crew that has a significantly better probability of profitable once they play their recreation, whereas the Chiefs may discover a strategy to win in any sort of recreation a little bit bit higher.
That’s what occurred in 2019 when these groups performed. Kansas Metropolis was down two scores, after which abruptly, they’re up two scores within the fourth quarter. It was unbelievable.
San Francisco got here again to beat Inexperienced Bay and Detroit, however they have been drastically higher than these groups, particularly Detroit. Detroit isn’t a crew, for my part, that may dangle with San Francisco. Detroit not with the ability to put that recreation away reveals how significantly better of a crew San Francisco was.
I may see San Fran’s protection not being dominant towards the Chiefs. I don’t know if they’re a dominant protection like they have been with DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh. It doesn’t really feel like they’re all that. Deep down, I’m saying Chiefs.
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Inside 49ers-Chiefs Tremendous Bowl matchup: What to observe when KC has the ball
The 49ers’ offense is difficult to defend as a result of they’ve ability guys that may create yards after the catch they usually have a quarterback who can learn defenses very quick and put the ball in a spot precisely. Their dropback recreation may be very timing-based, whereas Kansas Metropolis isn’t that.
Mahomes’ capability to play on or off schedule may very well be the distinction. What makes Mahomes good is that he’s a terrific off-schedule quarterback who doesn’t must play off-schedule to be nice. I all the time felt that was the factor with Russell Wilson. When everybody mentioned he was nice, I felt that to be a high-level quarterback, you continue to have to have the ability to throw it on time. Mahomes can do this.
Purdy’s not dangerous off-schedule as a result of he’s bought some slipperiness to him. He simply doesn’t play as a lot off-time. Mahomes is elite off-time, and I believe that’s Kansas Metropolis’s edge.
Offensive coach
Kansas Metropolis surprisingly with (Isiah) Pacheco runs the ball fairly effectively, they usually’ve been extra prepared to run it, and I believe that does take some stress off Mahomes. It has served their protection effectively. That has in all probability made them a extra full crew.
San Francisco gave up 280 yards towards Detroit within the first half. Possibly they have been stunned by Detroit, however they nonetheless haven’t discovered learn how to decelerate the perimeter runs. Pacheco is a slasher, and in the event you bought him on the sting, I believe he could be good, regardless of being extra of an inside runner.
Detroit simply stored pinning the ends and tossing the ball, and the 49ers’ secondary was late in supporting. I’m positive San Francisco goes to make an adjustment for the crack toss performs. They simply must get somebody up in sooner help. That isn’t a serious adjustment, however they in all probability will probably be reluctant to do it due to Mahomes.
I like Kansas Metropolis. I wish to like San Francisco, however I believe in these video games, the quarterback matchup is fairly massive, and it is a massive separation between these guys.
Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, these two guys may very well be sufficient to beat that, however I don’t suppose so on this recreation.
Ultimate ideas
If the 49ers win, absolutely somebody related to their crew will declare nobody gave them an opportunity. It received’t be an enormous stretch, regardless of oddsmakers favoring the 49ers, as a result of so many individuals in and across the recreation are selecting the Chiefs. I took Kansas Metropolis by a 24-20 margin in our workers picks. It wasn’t a decide towards the 49ers as a lot because it was a concern of selecting towards Mahomes. I’ve sided with him in each week of the playoffs. Why cease now?
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(Prime images of Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy: Patrick Smith, Kevin Sabitus / Getty Photographs)