The race to topple the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs is about to get underway.
Although because the AFC’s prime seed, the reigning two-time Tremendous Bowl champs get to relaxation throughout Wild-Card weekend. The 12 groups enjoying have extra speedy priorities than the Chiefs, however the finish objective stays: carry the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans.
It was the 12 months of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Payments, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and the Detroit Lions’ dominance over an all-time nice NFC North. Different contenders, such because the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings, seem able to deal with the massive stage. But, by all of it, the Chiefs remained a quiet fixed, storming by the schedule with a 15-2 report regardless of quite a few shut calls. The opposite 13 playoff groups, together with the NFC’s top-seeded Lions, must consider the Chiefs are as susceptible as they’ve been throughout their dynastic period, however that’s straightforward to say earlier than lining up towards the NFL’s modern-day juggernauts.
Patrick Mahomes is 15-3 within the playoffs, his three losses coming towards Tom Brady (as soon as with New England, as soon as with the Bucs) and Joe Burrow. Brady is retired and Burrow’s Bengals missed the playoffs, so if the Chiefs’ three-peat quest goes to be derailed, an opposing QB goes to must do one thing he’s by no means performed earlier than.
The playoffs open with six video games this weekend; The Athletic polled eight coaches and personnel executives to get their ideas and predictions on the matchups. (Observe: Those that have been polled weren’t allowed to vote on their very own staff’s sport.)
Prepare for the NFL playoffs
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Knowledgeable picks: Chargers 6, Texans 2
Quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Texans appeared poised to affix the elite ranks after a 5-1 begin to the season, however they’ve misplaced six of their final 11 video games whereas coping with key accidents and an offensive line that hasn’t held up. Stroud, consequently, was worse in each main statistical class relative to his rookie season.
The Chargers are heading in a distinct path. They gained eight of 11, together with three in a row, to leap into the coveted No. 5 seed and the fitting to play towards the reeling AFC South champions.
“(The Chargers are) enjoying actually good ball as of late,” an assistant coach mentioned. “They are going to be balanced sufficient with the run and move to throw off the Texans’ move rush.”
If the Texans are going to have an opportunity, they’ll want edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson (11) to have large video games. That tandem racked up practically half of the protection’s 49 sacks. Although the Texans’ power is likely to be neutralized by Chargers tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. L.A. allowed 44 sacks in the course of the common season, 14th-most within the NFL, however quarterback Justin Herbert has solely been sacked 3 times within the final three video games, albeit towards lighter competitors. Nevertheless, it’s a marked enchancment over a brutal, 10-game midseason stretch when he was taken down 32 occasions, together with no less than three sacks in eight of these video games.
“The (Chargers’) physicality, working the ball, that quarterback finds a manner,” an govt mentioned. “I can’t purchase in proper now to the Texans’ offensive entrance and the strain C.J. is getting. The way in which the Chargers are defending now with these two tackles, I believe they’ll deal with these rushers.”
There’s playoff historical past for each organizations that shouldn’t be ignored. The Texans, who’re enjoying within the wild-card Saturday afternoon time slot for a league-high seventh time because the 2012 postseason, have handled the diminished highlight all through their historical past. However of their earlier seven playoff appearances, Houston has gone one-and-done simply twice. In the meantime, the Chargers have two playoff wins during the last 15 years. They blew a 27-0 result in the Jacksonville Jaguars two years in the past of their final postseason look. It could possibly be why one assistant coach proclaimed the Texans will “positively” win the sport.
Additionally of be aware, this matchup options groups that struggled towards opponents that made the postseason — the Chargers have been 2-5, each wins towards the Denver Broncos, whereas the Texans have been 1-5, the victory coming in Week 5 towards the Payments. These groups have by no means met within the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson will sq. off for the third time this season. The Steelers and Ravens cut up the season sequence. (Justin Ok. Aller / Getty Pictures)
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Saturday
Knowledgeable picks: Ravens 8, Steelers 0
It is likely to be rivalry week for 2 hated AFC North groups, however the remainder of the league doesn’t anticipate a detailed sport. This matchup was the one unanimous vote of the wild-card spherical.
The Ravens’ 34-17 dwelling victory in Week 16 towards the reeling Steelers apparently left a mark.
“Baltimore merely can rating greater than the Steelers,” a coach mentioned. “Pittsburgh has leveled off at a foul time.”
The Steelers have misplaced 4 in a row, together with non-competitive defeats to the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. The Packers, with back-to-back losses, are the one different playoff staff with a multi-game dropping streak. Moreover, coach Mike Tomlin is 2-5 in highway playoff video games.
The Steelers received a jolt after they put in Russell Wilson as their beginning quarterback, however they’ve fallen off recently. Pittsburgh averaged 30.3 factors in Wilson’s first three begins however simply 20.6 in his final eight — a quantity significantly inflated by a 44-38 win over the Bengals — together with six video games with fewer than 20 factors.
Nevertheless, Jackson is simply 2-4 within the playoffs, finishing 57.4 p.c of his passes for a median of 220.7 yards per outing with six touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He additionally has averaged 86.8 speeding yards with three postseason speeding touchdowns. Traditionally, the Steelers have performed a robust job stifling Jackson, going 6-2 towards the two-time MVP. Jackson, although, threw for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception of their final assembly; his 115.4 passer ranking was the primary time he’s exceeded a ranking of 81 towards Pittsburgh.
Even with previous MVP {hardware}, Jackson has taken his sport to a different stage this season, with profession bests of 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He’s additionally tacked on 915 speeding yards — a complete output of 5,087 yards — and 4 scores.
“I believe Lamar makes a run this 12 months,” an govt mentioned. “Derrick Henry within the playoffs is such an excellent complement.”
The Ravens performed a league-high 10 video games towards opponents that made the playoffs, and their seven wins in these video games matched the Chiefs for essentially the most within the NFL. They have been 1-1 towards the Steelers.
Pittsburgh, in the meantime, went 4-3 towards playoff groups, although they’ve misplaced three in a row towards opponents from this 12 months’s postseason discipline, all since Week 15.
The Steelers are 3-1 towards the Ravens within the playoffs, however Baltimore gained the final assembly, 10 years in the past. That is the groups’ first postseason matchup in Baltimore.
No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at No. 2 Buffalo Payments (13-4)
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Knowledgeable picks: Payments 7, Broncos 1
It’s been all Josh Allen this season, and he is likely to be on the verge of his first MVP award. He’ll want to keep up this stage to ship Buffalo a long-coveted Lombardi Trophy.
“A lot is placed on the quarterback,” an govt mentioned. “(Allen) has to play nicely for them to advance. If he has a stinker, they’ll be in hassle. I believe they’ll play decently on protection, they usually’re at their place so I believe they might win.”
The Payments have been simply 2-3 towards opponents who made the playoffs this season, however their victories got here towards the Chiefs and Lions. They’re the one staff in NFL historical past to beat two 15-win groups in a season.
Whereas they’re able to taking down the most effective, the Payments have had some current defensive lapses, notably giving up 86 factors in back-to-back video games towards the Los Angeles Rams and Lions. Allen has the potential to play an ideal sport each time he hits the sector, however the Payments don’t need to pressure him to maintain doing it each week within the playoffs.
The Broncos have one of many worst résumés amongst groups within the postseason discipline. They have been 2-5 towards playoff opponents; that they had a formidable Week 3 blowout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, however the different victory was a takedown of the Chiefs’ backups within the regular-season finale. Denver wanted that win to get into the postseason after failed makes an attempt to clinch towards the Chargers and Bengals.
Nonetheless, this was a formidable turnaround for the Broncos in Sean Payton’s second season as head coach, particularly contemplating that they had $32 million of Russell Wilson’s useless cash on the books. Denver allowed the third-fewest factors within the league and received well timed quarterback play out of Bo Nix.
The Broncos gained the final assembly between these groups, 24-22, in 2023 on Monday Night time Soccer.
The manager who picked the Broncos was decisive along with his prediction: “The protection stifles Josh Allen in a shocker, they usually blow it up in Buffalo.”
A coach who picked the Payments thought this is able to be the most effective sport of the weekend.
The Payments gained the groups’ solely postseason matchup, within the 1991 playoffs.
No. 7 Inexperienced Bay Packers (11-6) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Knowledgeable picks: Eagles 6, Packers 2
The panel labored beneath the idea quarterbacks Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Jordan Love (elbow) could be cleared to play. Hurts has missed two video games, whereas Love was injured Sunday and has sounded optimistic about his availability.
The Eagles have been as sizzling as any staff on the planet. Since beginning 2-2, Philadelphia gained 12 of 13, together with a stretch of 10 consecutive wins. The loss got here towards the Washington Commanders, 36-33, in Week 16, a sport Hurts left within the first quarter after he was concussed.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s group allowed the second-fewest factors within the league (17.8), and the offense has been rolling behind MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. The working again led the league with 2,005 speeding yards and a couple of,283 yards from scrimmage, and he scored 15 occasions.
Hurts was the purpose guard for an offense that additionally received large manufacturing out of receivers A.J. Brown (67 catches, 1,079 yards, seven touchdowns) and DeVonta Smith (68-833-8).
“Jalen is coming again,” an govt mentioned. “Saquon is working the ball nice. That protection has performed so nicely, particularly within the again finish. That’s going to harm Jordan Love.”
The Packers stumbled down the stretch, dropping three of 5, together with two in a row. However whereas they’ve regarded loaded at occasions and overwhelmed up on lesser competitors, the Packers have been 2-5 towards playoff groups. They beat the Rams in Week 5 — a sport that knocked the Rams to 1-5 — and the Texans in Week 7.
By comparability, the Eagles have been 6-2 towards this 12 months’s playoff groups, together with 4-1 since Week 11. That included beating the Packers, 34-29, within the season opener in Brazil.
Love’s numbers have been down in his second season because the starter, however he has performed a greater job of taking good care of the ball. He threw 11 interceptions, however he hasn’t been picked in seven straight video games. Nonetheless, one govt was involved about Love dropping feeling in his throwing hand after the elbow harm.
“Unsure about Love’s harm and (the Packers being) totally in a position to be winners but,” the chief mentioned.
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley had a formidable first season. Inexperienced Bay allowed the sixth-fewest factors within the NFL regardless of dropping star cornerback Jaire Alexander halfway by the season and linebacker Quay Walker down the stretch.
This sport, maybe greater than any this weekend, could possibly be determined by turnovers. Each groups are ranked within the top-six in takeaways, with their mixed 57 takeaways essentially the most amongst wild-card opponents.
“Inexperienced Bay is undisciplined and can make a essential mistake late that they’ll’t overcome,” a coach mentioned.
The Eagles are 2-1 towards the Packers within the playoffs, though that is their first assembly in 14 years.
No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5) at No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Sunday
Knowledgeable picks: Buccaneers 5, Commanders 2
The Bucs gained the vote, however a number of panelists view this as a detailed sport that would go both manner.
The Bucs have claimed 4 consecutive NFC South titles, however they wanted to win six of seven down the stretch to carry off the Atlanta Falcons. They’re battle-tested with a 4-3 report towards playoff groups, and their wins towards the Lions and Eagles point out Tampa can beat anybody.
The Commanders aren’t as confirmed, with a 1-4 report towards groups within the postseason discipline. The win got here towards the Eagles, with Hurts compelled from the sport within the first quarter.
For the Bucs, it begins with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had the most effective season of his profession for the second 12 months in a row. Mayfield accomplished 71.4 p.c of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, and he was additionally at his finest as a runner with 378 yards, three scores and 24 carries for first downs.
“Gritty staff, love the way in which Baker competes,” an govt mentioned. “(Bucs head coach Todd) Bowles dials up a very good sport plan towards rookie QBs.”
The Bucs’ best weak spot is likely to be on protection, as they’ve struggled at occasions to get off the sector. Of be aware: Dallas Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush led scoring drives on six of his first seven possessions in a shocking Sunday evening upset towards the Buccaneers in Week 16.
The Bucs allowed 22.6 factors per sport, the third-most amongst playoff groups, however the Commanders allowed essentially the most (23.0). They acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore on the commerce deadline to deal with an undermanned secondary, however he’s been restricted to 2 video games attributable to a hamstring harm. If Lattimore is on the market, the previous Saint could possibly be in retailer for an additional big-time matchup towards wideout Mike Evans.
Offensive Rookie of the 12 months favourite Jayden Daniels had an impressive season and could possibly be environment friendly sufficient to trigger enormous issues for the Bucs. Daniels accomplished 69.0 p.c of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and he added a team-high 891 speeding yards together with six scores. His favourite goal has been Terry McLaurin (82 catches, 1,096 yards, 13 touchdowns).
If it’s a back-and-forth sport, Daniels will probably be assured on the heels of game-winning drives towards the Eagles and Falcons.
Turnovers will probably be a non-negotiable key to victory for the Bucs. Whereas Mayfield has been terrific, he led the league with 16 interceptions, his most since 2019. Nevertheless, the Commanders’ 17 takeaways are tied for the least within the playoff discipline.
“Flip a coin,” one govt mentioned concerning the matchup.
Nevertheless it performs out, the Commanders’ turnaround has been probably the most spectacular tales of the season. Daniels, head coach Dan Quinn and normal supervisor Adam Peters are every of their first season in these roles in Washington, they usually delivered the franchise its finest report since 1991 and its first playoff look in 4 years. However can the Commanders win their first playoff sport because the 2005 postseason?
The Bucs are 2-1 within the playoffs towards the Commanders, together with a 31-23 win in Tampa 4 years in the past.
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET Monday
Knowledgeable picks: Vikings 5, Rams 3
This was the closest vote, and it’s straightforward to grasp why. For starters, the Rams gained a house sport towards the Vikings, 30-20, in Week 8 (it was tighter than the ultimate rating signifies). Head coaches Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell are good mates after working alongside each other with the Rams, together with throughout L.A.’s Tremendous Bowl run, they usually each oversee comparable offensive techniques.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was having a classic stretch halfway by the season earlier than a shaky end, whereas Vikings counterpart Sam Darnold has loved a profession resurgence that would internet him a life-changing contract in free company.
Each groups have robust defenses, with the Rams settling in beneath first-year coordinator Chris Shula and Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores placing quarterbacks in a blender all season. The Rams allowed 24 complete factors from Weeks 15-17 earlier than resting starters within the regular-season finale towards the Seahawks, and the Vikings allowed the fifth-fewest factors within the NFL whereas being tied for the league lead with 33 takeaways.
The 14-win Vikings ought to be lots motivated to win on the highway after dropping the NFC North to the Lions with a clunker final Sunday evening. Darnold was as erratic as he’s been all season, and the protection was once more dominated by the Lions’ balanced assault.
“I believe Minnesota bounces again,” an govt mentioned. “I don’t suppose they put back-to-back duds on the market like that.”
Counterpoint: They have already got. Minnesota fell to the Lions and Rams in Weeks 7 and eight, though each video games have been shut. The Sunday evening blowout in Detroit was uncharacteristic for a staff that was 3-3 towards playoff opponents.
The Rams have been 2-3 towards postseason foes, additionally knocking off the Payments.
“Stafford and McVay are higher than Darnold and Kevin O’Connell,” an govt mentioned. “(However) can Flores fluster their plan?”
Flores has confounded quite a few quarterbacks this season, together with Brock Purdy, Stroud, Love, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. Even when the Vikings are giving up yards, they create sufficient confusion to trigger turnovers.
One panelist believed the groups’ familiarity will favor the Rams, and it goes past McVay and O’Connell. Flores and Rams offensive staffers Nick Caley and Jerry Schuplinski all labored along with the New England Patriots.
“Flores will play the identical sport plan that he’s used previously towards McVay,” the coach mentioned. “Jerry Schuplinski and Nick Caley each know the weaknesses in Flores’ protection and can assist Sean sport plan to keep away from previous points. Darnold will wrestle coming off final week’s sport, and the Rams protection will get after them.”
These organizations have an in depth playoff historical past, with the Vikings taking 5 of seven conferences, though they haven’t met on this stage in 25 years.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photographs: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill / Getty Pictures)