NHL predictions 2.0: New Stanley Cup favorite, surprise Hart Trophy front-runner and more

How a lot might have modified in a month?

Ask the Edmonton Oilers. When The Athletic polled its NHL employees for 2024-25 predictions within the preseason, Connor McDavid was the prohibitive favourite for the Hart Trophy, and his group was the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.

Now? Nicely, the Oilers are the highest decide in one other class, but it surely’s not one. A brand new group takes the highest spot for who we expect will win all of it, and one other Western Convention famous person — who didn’t get any votes within the preseason — is our Hart Trophy decide.

What else has modified? This week, we polled staffers on the identical set of questions we requested within the preseason. Right here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have already advanced, with professional evaluation and critique from senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting professional Jesse Granger.

Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Goldman: The Stars are the quietly efficient, balanced group of all of our goals. It’s no shock to see them on the high right here — particularly after the Oilers have gotten off to a different iffy begin. It’s not as dramatic or dire as final yr, however they aren’t inspiring a ton of confidence but.

Granger: I personally selected the Rangers, but it surely’s arduous to argue with any of the highest three picks right here. The Stars are as full of a group as there’s within the league proper now, and the Rangers and Panthers seem like they’re in their very own tier within the East, a minimum of early.

Gentille: I not often bail on my preseason Cup picks interval, not to mention after a month, however I’m involved sufficient with Stuart Skinner to deviate from protocol. Howdy, Dallas.

Mirtle: I’ve firm with the ‘Canes now! A ten-2-0 begin, offensive explosion (greater than 4 targets per sport) and Martin Nečas arriving actually assist embiggen their case.

THIS MAN CAN’T BE STOPPED!!! pic.twitter.com/EZW21YE58t

— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 6, 2024

Who would be the runners-up?

Goldman: Apparently it’s win or bust for the Hurricanes and Panthers! I went with the Lightning right here, who look loads stronger than the final couple of seasons. With a pair of seconds and fourths within the 2025 draft, administration ought to be capable to handle their depth — so long as they don’t spend all their picks on a participant like, I don’t know, Tanner Jeannot.

Granger: It’s attention-grabbing to see how little the religion in Edmonton has wavered after the 6-7-1 begin, each on this ballot and within the betting odds. The Oilers are nonetheless the favorites to win the Cup at +700 regardless of presently sitting in fifth place within the Pacific Division standings with the third-fewest targets scored per 60 minutes.

Gentille: Yeah, I’m sticking with the Rangers right here. They’ve bought an elite goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, a Hart candidate in Artemi Panarin and sufficient five-on-five substance to maintain me on the prepare.

Mirtle: Nobody be-Leafs anymore, after a tepid eight wins in 15 video games begin. (I don’t blame them.) I went with the Jets right here, as with Connor Hellebuyck this dialed in, they might have a pleasant run.

The Sharks had the worst document within the league final season. This yr, issues are simply as bleak. (Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)

Who will end in final place?

Goldman: The Sharks, even with out Macklin Celebrini, have had some attention-grabbing video games recently … however everyone knows the place their season goes. The massive distinction between them and the Geese? Lukáš Dostál.

Granger: I believed the Sharks could be considerably higher this season, and up to now that’s confirmed to be very flawed. They clearly don’t have the expertise to compete with the perfect groups, however in addition they sit again so passively on protection, letting groups cross the puck across the outdoors virtually as in the event that they’re on an influence play for almost all of the sport.

Gentille: San Jose must name up Yaroslav Askarov (.950 save share in his first six AHL video games) to make this one attention-grabbing.

Mirtle: The Habs may make this one attention-grabbing in the event that they maintain enjoying this fashion defensively. Two wins of their final 11 video games doesn’t seem like a blip.

Who would be the greatest disappointment?

Have to be projected at 100-plus factors by Dom Luszczyszyn’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level whole in parentheses.

Granger: The highest three groups are all on this spot due to subpar goaltending. The distinction between the three is that Alexandar Georgiev and Skinner have lengthy sufficient observe information for me to imagine they’ll ultimately regress again to being league-average goalies. In the meantime, it’s wanting much less doubtless Thatcher Demko is stepping via that door to avoid wasting the Canucks, so I’m most fearful about Vancouver.

Mirtle: No love for Kevin Lankinen! He’s been glorious, and the Canucks’ underlying numbers are strong. Their backup is hurting them (.797 save share for Artūrs Šilovs), however with Demko becoming a member of the principle group at follow this week, they could possibly be tremendous?

Granger: You is likely to be proper. Perhaps I’m not giving Lankinen sufficient credit score. He was glorious towards the Kings on Thursday, and his numbers are nice. I’m nonetheless a bit skeptical that can proceed for a complete season, but when Demko returns quickly it’ll change my thoughts in a rush.

Gentille: Carolina is presently enjoying at a 137-point tempo. Whoops!

Goldman: The Oilers bounced again from worse final yr, so possibly that’s why I’m not tremendous fearful there. Perhaps the Maple Leafs must be greater. Or all of us count on them to disappoint us, so it wouldn’t be a shock if it occurred.

Who’s your darkish horse Cup contender?

Have to be projected as a middle-of-the-pack group, between 85 and 100 factors by Dom’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level whole in parentheses.

Goldman: The Wild and Capitals have gotten off to better-than-expected begins, which makes them dark-horse playoff groups. However contenders? I don’t suppose anybody sees them standing within the remaining 4 within the spring. That’s what separates them from the Jets, Devils, Lightning and Golden Knights.

Granger: I’m nonetheless alone on the Senators bandwagon, however I’m nonetheless comfy regardless of the middling begin. Ottawa is scoring at tempo, and the goaltending has been higher than the numbers recommend. They’re inferior to Tampa Bay or Vegas, however I discover it arduous to contemplate them darkish horses.

Gentille: The Lightning are a little bit of a riser right here, which is sensible. They’re getting secondary manufacturing from their forwards, and that was an enormous subject for them final season.

Mirtle: Sticking with Vegas. They’re driving a taking pictures share bender, certain, however offense certain doesn’t seem like it’ll be the difficulty some thought it was this season. Pavel Dorofeyev has arrived.

Pav bought us going!!! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/G1kdbFZagh

— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 3, 2024

Who’s your shock playoff group?

Have to be projected beneath 85 factors by Dom’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level whole in parentheses.

Granger: The Flames are enjoying some enjoyable, high-event hockey, and each Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar are off to good begins in internet. Greater than something, I simply suppose the Pacific Division is the best to earn a playoff spot in.

Gentille: Ideally, we might’ve left this one clean, however I can see the Blues making a run as soon as Robert Thomas is again within the lineup.

Mirtle: Yeah, this actually seems like not one of the above at this level. Good for Columbus, although; lastly seems like they’re constructing one thing attention-grabbing there. They’ve been enjoyable to look at.

Goldman: The door must be open for Detroit right here with the Islanders, Penguins and Bruins all going via it, however … nope, the vibes are merely off there as properly.

Will Derek Lalonde be the primary coach fired this season? (Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)

Who would be the first coach fired?

Goldman: There’s a good case to make for any of the highest three names right here. Mike Sullivan could be purely for a change of route. A group with Derek Lalonde on the helm shouldn’t be this dangerous defensively. However I personally went with Jim Montgomery. The Bruins look misplaced within the early goings of the season and are seeing their playoff probabilities development down by the day at this level.

Gentille: Gotta say, I didn’t count on to see Montgomery difficult for the crown right here. I nonetheless suppose it’s Lalonde, although. If Detroit’s energy play goes chilly for a protracted period of time, issues are gonna get ugly in a rush.

Mirtle: I second Montgomery. It’s not a lot Boston’s document, which isn’t nice. They’ve been as dangerous defensively as we’ve seen in … 20 years? And even David Pastrňák seems out of kinds now.

East playoff area

We requested every voter to choose the eight East playoff groups. Right here is the share of the votes obtained by every group. 

(*-playoff group in 2023-24)

Granger: There appears to be a reasonably clear cutoff after the highest eight groups, each in these ballot outcomes and the betting odds. Boston continues to be a -135 favourite to make the playoffs regardless of the sluggish begin, whereas the next-closest group (Ottawa) is a slight +110 underdog to make it.

Gentille: Eight-for-eight to this point. Finish the season instantly.

Mirtle: One vote for Ottawa for me. They’ve regarded actually good recently and managed to nab some factors when Linus Ullmark was out of the lineup. Perhaps ease up on these Travis Hamonic minutes a bit, although, Mendes.

Goldman: The East feels considerably determined apart from that eighth seed. Boring!

West playoff area

We requested every voter to choose the eight West playoff groups. Right here is the share of the votes obtained by every group. 

(*-playoff group in 2023-24)

Granger: What a fall for Nashville, from 92.9 % to 32.3 % in solely a month of hockey. The Predators are nonetheless favorites to make the playoffs in response to the oddsmakers, although.

Gentille: I really like what the Kings are doing. They’re a top-10 five-on-five group, and that bodes properly for them snagging one of many wild playing cards, particularly given how misplaced Nashville has regarded.

Mirtle: The rise of the Wild might make the West race fairly boring. I’ve a tough time seeing any of the underside seven get in at this level. Show me flawed, Utahns!

Goldman: Time to cancel one other journey to Sphere or one thing to get Nashville again on this race. Utah had loads of momentum early on and wow, did it fade shortly.

Hart Trophy

Given to the participant judged to be probably the most invaluable to his group. Voted on by the Skilled Hockey Writers Affiliation (PHWA).

Gentille: It’s value noting that we voted whereas Connor McDavid was on the shelf, and he wound up lacking a grand whole of three video games. At 6.5 %, he got here in a bit of mild.

Mirtle: Kirill Kaprizov is a tremendous alternative, however I believe we’re chasing the shiny new toy right here a bit. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have been wonderful recently and are going to make this one attention-grabbing, I believe.

Goldman: No disagreements with Kaprizov and Kucherov main the way in which, however goalies (and Shesterkin, particularly) must be within the dialog extra usually.

Get your self a glass 🥛 pic.twitter.com/W0QrBuHni4

— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) November 9, 2024

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the main aim scorer on the finish of the common season.

Goldman: Who amongst us anticipated Kucherov to attain this a lot with a 40-goal scorer like Jake Guentzel on his wing?

Gentille: “Me,” I say very dishonestly. He didn’t get any votes, however I really feel it essential to level out that Tage Thompson leads the league with 9 five-on-five targets. If Buffalo’s energy play will get it collectively, he ought to have a shot.

Mirtle: The Auston Matthews skepticism additionally comes with him on the shelf for a couple of video games, however the concern is warranted. His taking pictures share is down by half, the Leafs energy play had a tough begin however is getting higher, and it feels a bit just like the off-year he had in 2022-23 up to now.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates all through the season the best all-around skill within the place. Voted on by the PHWA.

Granger: Cale Makar is scoring at an 82-game tempo of 135 factors …

Gentille: Makar has been undeniably sick, however I went with Quinn Hughes right here if solely to make a degree. His work in his personal finish has been each unimaginable and a step up from final season, when he gained Norris No. 1. His marketing campaign for a repeat deserves to start out now.

Mirtle: I picked Makar, however glad to see Brock Faber right here. If the Wild make the playoffs, he’s going to be getting votes for this, no query.

Goldman: Hughes is having such a wonderful begin that he in all probability must be getting extra hype. No shade to Makar, who rightfully leads the way in which right here. It simply feels prefer it must be a bit tighter.

GO DEEPER

16 stats: Sabres’ second-line points, Timothy Liljegren commerce, Quinn Hughes’ Norris case

Selke Trophy

Given to the ahead who demonstrates probably the most ability within the defensive part of the sport. Voted on by the PHWA.

Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is the simple reply right here and can in all probability be a perennial finalist for the remainder of his profession. However Nico Hischier’s scoring might lastly push him to the highest of the record this yr, since there’s a lot extra emphasis on two-way play in right this moment’s sport.

Gentille: That was my logic, too. Barkov missed a while and Hischier is scoring sufficient (10 targets) to bolster his case.

Mirtle: The twelfth (Sidney Crosby) and thirteenth (Anze Kopitar) oldest skaters are getting fame votes right here, but it surely’s fairly exceptional that each are nonetheless placing up higher than a degree a sport at age 37.

Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is enjoying on his personal planet and maybe his personal universe. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Pictures)

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the perfect at this place. Voted on by the overall managers of all 32 NHL golf equipment.

Granger: Shesterkin is enjoying on his personal planet — maybe his personal universe — in the meanwhile. The 11.97 targets he’s saved above anticipated this season (even after a uncommon dangerous outing on Thursday) rank second within the league. It’s virtually unfair when he’s this locked in.

Gentille: I’m Crew Shesterkin, too, however shoutout to Jake Oettinger, who’s having the kind of common season (.922 save share, fifth within the NHL in targets saved above anticipated) that loads of us anticipated in 2023-24.

Mirtle: Fairly a negotiation technique from Shesterkin proper now …

GO DEEPER

Goalie Monitoring: The highest storylines in internet from the primary month of the NHL season

Jack Adams Award

Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed probably the most to his group’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Affiliation.

Goldman: We noticed Spencer Carbery do loads with a bit of final season. With some roster additions, the Capitals are thriving. He deserves loads of credit score for it. If Washington can keep within the playoff race, he feels just like the slam-dunk decide for this award.

Gentille: I’d like to see Carbery keep within the dialogue right here. Too many Jack Adams candidates are propped up by overachieving goalies, and that hasn’t been the case in D.C. They’re across-the-board good.

Mirtle: Carbery was pegged by loads of organizations as a rising star after what he did as an assistant in Toronto, and that’s positively enjoying out proper now. Few noticed this sort of an increase from the Capitals, who all of the sudden look very legit. Nice rent by Brian MacLellan.

Granger: The Senators aren’t fairly enjoying properly sufficient for Travis Inexperienced to fly up this record, however I like what he’s doing with that younger group.

Calder Trophy

Given to the participant chosen as probably the most proficient in his first yr of competitors within the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.

Gentille: As I kind this, Matvei Michkov has been healthy-scratched. It was certain to occur in some unspecified time in the future, I suppose.

Goldman: The Sharks scored greater than anticipated with out Macklin Celebrini, so if they’ll construct on it with him again within the fold (he scored two targets on Thursday), he might emerge as the favourite.

MACKLIN’S GOT ANOTHER ONE ✌️ pic.twitter.com/zX4UW1hZlq

— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2024

Mirtle: I’m closely biased right here as a result of I’ve watched him with my hometown group for years, however people are sleeping on Logan Stankoven. His line has been nice defensively, and his point-per-game tempo isn’t percentage-driven. He’s going to have an important profession.

Granger: Stankoven was so good within the playoffs final yr and has rolled it proper into this season. The man is all over the place when he’s on the ice, an important forechecker and has loads of ability with the puck as soon as he will get it.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Pictures: Bruce Kluckhohn, Andre Ringuette / NHLI; Joel Auerbach / Getty Pictures)