Novak Djokovic’s results against Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz – a small part of a big problem

Virtually 20 years after the final time it occurred, Novak Djokovic finds himself occupying an area in males’s tennis with which he’s all too acquainted. He’s, by a distance, the third-best participant on the planet.

In the summertime of 2007, quickly after he turned 20, Djokovic made the semifinals of the French Open and Wimbledon, earlier than reaching the ultimate on the U.S. Open. He was No. 3 on the planet for all of that July, dropped to No. 4 for every week within the August, after which stayed at No. 3 till… Might. Of 2009.

In his approach had been Rafael Nadal, who beat him in these French Open and Wimbledon semis, and Roger Federer, who noticed him off in straight units in New York. Except for his 2008 Australian Open title, losses to Nadal and Federer outlined Djokovic’s profession from that summer time till 2011. Each defeated him a pair extra instances every within the closing phases of majors between 2008 and 2010, with Djokovic posting two wins of his personal in opposition to them at these occasions.

Now, because the 2024 season attracts to an in depth, Djokovic has Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in entrance of him.

On Sunday, Sinner beat Djokovic in straight units within the closing of the Shanghai Masters — a event Djokovic has gained 4 instances, greater than some other participant, and the place he has a 39-6 document. Sinner has now crushed him twice this yr, thrice in a row, and in 4 of their previous 5 ATP conferences; in that point, Djokovic has additionally misplaced consecutive Wimbledon finals to Alcaraz. It makes Sinner solely the sixth participant to win three ATP-level matches in a row in opposition to Djokovic, in response to Opta:

Djokovic did beat Alcaraz 7-6(3), 7-6(2) to win Olympic gold in August, however in his 5 matches in opposition to the highest two this yr, he has gained simply three units. Two of these had been in that Olympic closing, the opposite got here in his in any other case easy four-set loss to Sinner on the Australian Open.

Sinner and Alcaraz have additionally shared this yr’s 4 Grand Slams between them, leaving him with no main in a calendar yr for less than the second time since 2010.

Djokovic reiterated on Sunday that Grand Slam titles are what inspire him to maintain going at age 37, having gained the whole lot there’s to win within the sport. “Proper now, it’s actually about Slams and about nonetheless seeing how far I can push the bar for myself,” he stated in a information convention.

The Serbian wants yet another main to maneuver away from Margaret Courtroom’s document of 24 — 9 of which she gained earlier than tennis turned skilled — which he equalled by profitable the U.S. Open final yr. For the remainder of 2024, and into 2025, he should stability sustaining his stage and health for these 4 majors with the information that, with out rating factors accrued in different occasions, his conferences with Sinner and Alcaraz at these majors will occur in earlier and earlier rounds.

Djokovic and Alcaraz have performed two definitive Wimbledon finals in two years (Charlotte Wilson / Offside through Getty Photos)

Djokovic’s semifinal loss to Sinner was his first defeat on the Australian Open — the place he’s a 10-time champion — in six years. For less than the second time in his Grand Slam profession, Djokovic didn’t earn a break level and his 17.2 % of factors gained on first-serve return was his third-worst tally of 2024.

In Shanghai on Sunday, maybe the best returner within the historical past of the game had related struggles, this time profitable simply 34.6 per cent of second-serve return factors — once more his third-worst displaying of 2024. And whereas most opponents yield to Djokovic’s larger solidity within the essential moments, Sinner didn’t. It was Djokovic, not Sinner, who coughed up a decisive error within the essential first-set tiebreak.

In opposition to Alcaraz at Wimbledon, an admittedly not-fully-fit Djokovic once more returned poorly. He gained 16.1 % of first-serve return factors, his second-lowest whole of the yr, and stated after the match that he had by no means seen the younger Spaniard serve so nicely.

Djokovic additionally had a dreadful day serving. He gained 40 % of factors behind his second serve, his second-lowest determine of 2024 and approach down on his common for the yr of 55.9 %. The 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 (4) scoreline that day arguably flattered the crushed finalist, with Alcaraz obliterating Djokovic’s serve at 4-4 within the third set after largely coasting by the 4 earlier service video games performed. To beat Alcaraz within the Olympic closing, Djokovic performed his finest match of the yr within the event that mattered most to him, elevating his stage within the two tiebreaks, particularly the second. Alcaraz, who transformed zero of eight break factors within the match, dipped in each tiebreaks and on these break factors.

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Tennis normally passes the torch. Carlos Alcaraz is working away with it

An issue for Djokovic is that Sinner and Alcaraz are acting at such a stage that there’s little he can do in the best way of making ready for them with match observe that doesn’t contain taking part in significant matches in opposition to them. His comparatively sparse schedule has allowed him to keep up his health whereas reliably easing into majors by the primary week, getting himself match-ready by profitable within the early rounds. He did it at this yr’s French Open, falling solely to the medial meniscus tear from which he recovered to succeed in the Wimbledon closing. He did it on the U.S. Open, too, earlier than assembly an impressed Alexei Popyrin and failing to carry his stage to fulfill that problem.

Djokovic has performed 12 tournaments this yr, in comparison with 14 for Sinner and 16 for Alcaraz (counting final month’s Davis Cup qualifiers as one occasion quite than two separate ties). Djokovic will in all probability finish the yr with 14 occasions, the identical as in 2023 and two greater than a yr earlier when he missed the Australian swing due to his Covid-19 vaccination standing. Djokovic performed 13 occasions the yr earlier than that.

This very constant strategy has typically led to constantly good outcomes, however it’s his world rating and his factors accrued from constantly profitable titles which have allowed him to do that with out risking going through the most effective gamers earlier than the ultimate phases of occasions.

Sinner’s defeat of Djokovic in Melbourne proved a seminal second in 2024 (Daniel Pockett / Getty Photos)

Which may be about to alter.

Djokovic has accrued 3,910 rating factors to date in 2024, profitable only one occasion and nil ATP titles — his lowest tally since 2005. That places him at No. 6 within the ‘Race to Turin,’ the Italian metropolis the place the season-ending Tour Finals are held. He’s at present No. 4 within the ATP world rankings, behind Alexander Zverev, who’s forward of Djokovic in factors however not on-court high quality. Djokovic is defending 1,000 of these factors on the Paris Masters, which begins October 28, the place he’s the reigning champion. He’s not anticipated to play any additional occasions in 2024.

His outcomes have additionally declined. He has gained 80 % of his matches in 2024 (37-9), down from 89 % (56-7) final yr. It’s his lowest win proportion for a calendar yr since 2010, wherein he gained 77 % of matches — the ultimate season earlier than Djokovic donned his superhero cape and went stratospheric. His 2011, wherein he gained a staggering 92 % (70-6) of matches, was probably the greatest years for a person in males’s tennis historical past.

It feels unlikely that, at 37, Djokovic will need to tweak his quantity of tournaments to attempt to be extra match-tight for the majors, however with out rating factors, his rating will drop. If his rating drops, his seeding for Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments will drop. If his seedings for Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments drop, he can be assembly Alcaraz or Sinner earlier and earlier within the occasions he most desires to win.

Even a seeding of 5 to eight on the Australian Open would at present imply a doable quarterfinal in opposition to one or the opposite, and he’d solely need to drop one place from his present rating of fourth to be going through that state of affairs.

Djokovic was phlegmatic about this newest defeat to Sinner on the weekend, saying: “So long as I carry out the best way I carried out this week, and I feel I can go toe-to-toe with the large guys. So long as that’s the case, I suppose I’ll nonetheless really feel the necessity to carry on competing, and motivation to be on the market, and let’s see how lengthy that’s going to final for.”

Whereas the possibility to reel in Sinner and Alcaraz — who had been aged 5 and 4 respectively when Djokovic first turned the world No. 3 — needs to be loads of motivation, if losses to them change into persistent, that might shortly change into dispiriting. A lot has been remodeled the previous week of the retirement of Rafael Nadal and what which means for Djokovic because the final one of many sport’s Large Three standing, with Federer having hung up his racket in 2022.

After listening to the Nadal information, Djokovic stated in an on-court interview in Shanghai, “I nonetheless get pleasure from competing, however a part of me left with them, an enormous a part of me.”

Djokovic will defend 1,000 rating factors when the Paris Masters begins in late October (Zhang Lintao / Getty Photos)

It’s really the third member of the group whose expertise is likely to be extra pertinent.

Between Wimbledon in 2012 and the Australian Open in 2017, Federer didn’t win a Grand Slam title. For a lot of that interval, he discovered himself in an analogous place to the place Djokovic is now — the world’s third-best participant however with a pair of rivals a stage above. A kind of rivals was Djokovic, who beat Federer in three Grand Slam finals between Wimbledon in 2014 and the U.S. Open the next yr. Nadal, in the meantime, beat him within the 2014 Australian Open semifinal. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka had been different complicating components throughout these years.

Federer, who was in Shanghai for Sunday’s closing, may provide Djokovic some recommendation on hanging in when youthful rivals emerge — particularly as he needed to take care of the Large One changing into the Large Two after which the Large Three within the mid-to-late 2000s.

There have been no indications that Djokovic is but fascinated about the top.

“I don’t know what the longer term brings, I’ll simply attempt to drift to see how I really feel in a given second,” he stated on Sunday. “I nonetheless plan to compete and play subsequent season and, yeah, let’s see how far I am going.”

Djokovic dismantled one duopoly to kickstart his profession.

As he approaches his closing act, he should repeat the trick to lengthen it.

(Prime photograph: Clive Brunskill / Getty Photos)