Nvidia-backed AI cloud firm CoreWeave (CRWV) inventory has soared over 100% since its IPO in March as buyers’ hopes for the AI increase outweigh considerations over what some analysts say is a dangerous enterprise mannequin.
Over the identical time-frame, the S&P 500 gained a way more modest 7%. CoreWeave is without doubt one of the largest holders of Nvidia’s graphics processing models (GPUs) and rents its knowledge middle capability to Massive Tech companies akin to Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) as they scramble to energy their AI ambitions.
Nvidia (NVDA) holds a 7% stake in CoreWeave, in keeping with the AI chipmaker’s submitting to the SEC Thursday. Along with backing the corporate, Nvidia each sells chips to and buys knowledge middle capability from CoreWeave.
CoreWeave reported its first quarterly earnings outcomes as a public firm this week, that includes hovering income for the three months ending March 31 and a bullish income outlook for the 12 months, far forward of Wall Avenue’s expectations, on a $4 billion cope with ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Nonetheless, the inventory dropped after the earnings name, dragged down by a higher-than-anticipated outlook for capital expenditures.
Wall Avenue analysts maintained their optimism for CoreWeave inventory following its earnings. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill, who holds a Purchase ranking on the inventory, raised his worth goal on shares to $80 from $51 Thursday, citing “insatiable demand.”
Macquarie analyst Paul Golding raised his worth outlook to $65 from $56. He mentioned in a observe that CoreWeave’s outlook “highlights the ever-accelerating nature of AI demand, together with CoreWeave’s agility in responding to this.”
In the meantime, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss, who has an Equal-weight ranking on the inventory, mentioned in a observe that “accruing massive contracts from probably the most demanding GenAI customers gives sturdy validation of CoreWeave’s sturdy positioning.” He raised his worth goal to $58 from $46.
Different analysts stay skeptical.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria downgraded CoreWeave to an Underperform on Thursday, citing its $23 billion capital expenditure forecast for 2025, simply because it tasks a lot much less (round $5 billion) in income.
Luria advised Yahoo Finance in an interview this week that CoreWeave’s capital construction is “very dangerous,” as the corporate makes use of debt financing, borrowed in opposition to its depreciating retailer of prior-generation Nvidia Hopper AI chips, to buy extra of the most recent Nvidia chips to remain aggressive within the AI knowledge middle market. CoreWeave has a major quantity of debt — roughly $12 billion price of debt commitments with very excessive rates of interest, in keeping with Luria. Its curiosity bills are solely getting larger, leaping roughly 550% to $264 million within the first quarter from the prior 12 months.
A CoreWeave spokesperson advised Yahoo Finance: “CoreWeave’s capex and debt constructions are strategically aligned with long-term, dedicated buyer contracts – clear proof of the highly effective demand indicators it’s receiving from shoppers, and supply the corporate with sturdy income visibility and enticing unit economics.”
Michael Intrator, founder and CEO of CoreWeave, an Nvidia-backed cloud companies supplier, reacts throughout the firm’s IPO on the Nasdaq Market in New York Metropolis on March 28. (Reuters/Brendan McDermid) ·REUTERS / Reuters
CoreWeave can also be closely reliant on only some prospects. In a submitting on Thursday, it mentioned that 72% of its income got here from Microsoft within the first quarter of 2025.
Hedgeye Threat Administration analyst Felix Wang, who holds a brief place on the inventory and mentioned he has taken a monetary beating due to that guess, mentioned “the catch right here is that if the hyperscalers do sooner or later resolve to do their very own factor — whether or not it is Microsoft constructing their very own personal knowledge facilities, AWS [Amazon (AMZN) Web Services] constructing their very own knowledge facilities — or the hyperscalers resolve to make use of extra ASIC merchandise and never use GPUs per se from Nvidia anymore.”
ASIC merchandise are customized AI chips made by firms akin to Broadcom (AVGO), distinct from Nvidia’s extra general-purpose graphics processing models.
Wang mentioned CoreWeave’s growing reliance on OpenAI can also be troubling. OpenAI’s dedication of a further $4 billion to CoreWeave in Might got here on prime of its beforehand introduced $11.9 billion cope with the corporate in March, in keeping with CoreWeave’s regulatory submitting to the Securities and Change Fee on Thursday.
OpenAI is shedding cash and counting on persevering with to lift capital it doesn’t should fund each its $16 billion dedication to CoreWeave and $19 billion dedication to the so-called Stargate AI knowledge middle undertaking, which is reportedly struggling to get off the bottom. Wang additionally expressed considerations that OpenAI’s largest backer, SoftBank, has a major quantity of debt.
Solely in an surroundings the place AI continues to soar at “exponential” charges can CoreWeave succeed, Luria mentioned. That is a threat as a result of Massive Tech remains to be determining the way to monetize the know-how and will finally pull again spending on AI knowledge middle capability. And if Massive Tech pulls again on that capability, firms will doubtless cease renting further capability from CoreWeave on prime of working their very own knowledge facilities.
StockStory goals to assist particular person buyers beat the market.
Laura Bratton is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Observe her on Bluesky @laurabratton.bsky.social. Electronic mail her at laura.bratton@yahooinc.com.
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