The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs maintain successful video games no workforce ought to win so incessantly, leaving opposing followers pointing to every part from dumb luck to favorable officiating to clarify the maddening inevitability.
Mathematically, the Chiefs’ 15-game successful streak in video games determined by one rating or much less ought to occur as soon as in 406 probabilities.
With a 19-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers on a last-second discipline purpose that bounced off the left upright earlier than clearing the crossbar Sunday, the Chiefs grew to become the twenty sixth workforce in league historical past to start a season with a 12-1 document.
GO DEEPER
How Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs pulled off one other magic act, full with a doink
But, they’re considered one of one.
The Chiefs’ level differential by 13 video games (plus-56) is by far the smallest for any 12-1 workforce.
The victory over the Chargers was Kansas Metropolis’s fourth of the season by one or two factors, a complete exceeded simply as soon as over a full season within the 105-year historical past of the NFL. The 1989 Inexperienced Bay Packers did it 5 occasions and completed 10-6, per Professional Soccer Reference.
How do the Chiefs maintain doing this? What’s their secret? This particular Kansas Metropolis workforce seems configured to play many shut video games and win the next proportion of them, even when the present 15-game win streak in one-score video games stays a mathematical outlier, as we’ll reveal subsequent.
What is going to it imply within the playoffs? There are indicators to think about there as effectively.
The chances behind the streak
The Chiefs have an 18-1 document since Week 17 of 2023, counting their four-game run to a second successive Tremendous Bowl victory. That interval contains the 15-game victory streak in video games determined by eight or fewer factors. The Chiefs have additionally gained by 19, 13 and 10 throughout that span, whereas struggling their solely defeat, 30-21, at Buffalo on Nov. 17.
To calculate how possible a workforce can be to win 15 consecutive video games of any sort, we take the workforce’s anticipated win price in these video games to the ability of the streak length. Counting playoffs, the Chiefs had a 42-21 (.667) document in one-score video games from 2018-23 with Patrick Mahomes as their beginning quarterback. I used this price to plot Kansas Metropolis’s anticipated wins throughout 15 such video games.
The desk beneath exhibits the probability of a workforce successful between one and 15 video games consecutively with projected win charges of 67 p.c (Mahomes’ win price in one-score video games from 2018 to 2023) and 78 p.c (his win price in 2023-24).
Win streak chance by anticipated win %
| Video games in Streak | 67% Win Fee | 78% Win Fee |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
66.7% |
78.3% |
|
2 |
44.5% |
61.3% |
|
3 |
29.7% |
48.0% |
|
4 |
19.8% |
37.6% |
|
5 |
13.2% |
29.4% |
|
6 |
8.8% |
23.0% |
|
7 |
5.9% |
18.0% |
|
8 |
3.9% |
14.1% |
|
9 |
2.6% |
11.1% |
|
10 |
1.7% |
8.7% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
6.8% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
5.3% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
4.2% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
3.3% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
2.5% |
The microscopic 0.246 p.c probability of a 15-game streak within the left column works out to a 1-in-406 likelihood.
It’s historic. Is it unfathomable?
There are methods to demystify the achievement.
The 67 p.c win price creates an expectation that the Chiefs would win 10 of those 15 video games. In that case, nobody can be shocked in the event that they gained a pair fewer or a pair extra. Let’s say they occurred to win 12. Throw in some one-off occurrences, reminiscent of Kansas Metropolis blocking a last-second discipline purpose in opposition to Denver in Week 10, and the remaining three victories is likely to be defined. An unlikely scramble right here, a lucky penalty there.
However there’s extra to it than that.
Perceptions of Chiefs heighten our disbelief
The Chiefs win so incessantly and at such a excessive stage, together with prior to now two Tremendous Bowls, that even the betting markets appear stunned when they don’t dominate on the scoreboard.
Level spreads may be instructive right here.
The Chiefs are 6-1 over their previous seven video games with out masking the unfold even as soon as, per TruMedia.
Since 2000, 21 different groups have gone precisely seven consecutive video games with out masking. They mixed for an 18-129 (.122) document throughout these streaks. That’s 6-1 for the Chiefs, 18-129 for everybody else.
It’s one other technique to really feel as if the Chiefs are underperforming even once they win, which invitations questions on their legitimacy, despite the fact that they aren’t those setting the expectations.
Profitable with out impressing is likely to be a Kansas Metropolis phenomenon.
The 2020 Chiefs went 5-0 over a five-game stretch with out masking the unfold, the one workforce to perform that feat since 2000. The 2018 Chiefs personal the second-best document since 2000 (3-3) amongst groups that didn’t cowl for six straight video games.
Nothing appears to return simply for these 2024 Chiefs.
Their price of explosive performs — outlined as rushes gaining 12-plus yards and passes gaining greater than 15 — has plummeted to eight.5 p.c this season. That ranks thirtieth, forward of solely the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants, who’ve 2-11 information. The speed is down from 10.5 p.c final season, which ranked sixteenth, and barely half what it was in 2018 (15.7 p.c, which ranked second).
Kansas Metropolis nonetheless ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play as a result of the Chiefs have proven nice potential to maintain lengthy drives, partly as a result of Mahomes ranks first in EPA per move play on third and fourth downs (he’s twenty fourth on early downs). The Kansas Metropolis protection, which has slipped to 18th in EPA per play this season after rating fifth in 2023, ranks twenty fifth in turnovers pressured (10) this season and twenty seventh over the previous three.
Longer, extra laborious drives by the offense, mixed with a protection that performs fairly effectively usually however doesn’t take the ball away with frequency, may clarify why video games involving the Chiefs have fewer complete possessions than video games involving another workforce however the Arizona Cardinals this season.
With fewer possessions, each turns into extra precious, which additionally may play into Kansas Metropolis’s benefits.
Why the Chiefs win so many shut video games
Reconciling the Chiefs’ 12-1 document with their plus-56 level differential can be troublesome with out accounting for the roles elite quarterbacks and coaches would possibly play.
Most groups with level differentials close to the Chiefs’ plus-56 would have information close to 8-5 by 13 video games.
The Chiefs are considered one of seven groups since 1970 with 10-plus wins by 13 video games regardless of having level differentials between plus-51 and plus-61, per Professional Soccer Reference.
Prime 13-game W-L information with +51-61 level margin
Six of the seven had Corridor of Fame-caliber quarterbacks and/or head coaches: Tom Brady and Invoice Belichick with the 2003 New England Patriots; Aaron Rodgers with the 2021 Packers; a broken-down Peyton Manning (backed by an elite protection) with the 2015 Denver Broncos; Tom Landry with the 1981 Dallas Cowboys; Andy Reid with the 2003 Eagles; and, in fact, Mahomes with Reid on these Chiefs.
Kansas Metropolis additionally has a consensus top-five defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo.
These benefits may tip recreation outcomes when the margins for successful are smallest.
Mahomes particularly is a grasp scrambler all through video games and particularly in essential moments. His scramble price jumps by about 50 p.c within the fourth quarter of one-score video games (9.8 p.c, in comparison with 6.5 p.c in all conditions).
Scrambles for positive aspects of 10 yards in opposition to the Chargers on Sunday and 33 yards in opposition to Carolina in Week 12 moved the Chiefs into field-goal vary throughout drives that ended with walk-off kicks. Final season, whereas defending a 23-20 lead in opposition to the New York Jets, Mahomes scrambled 25 yards on third-and-23 to assist the Chiefs run the ultimate 7:24 off the sport clock with a 15-play drive.
The chart beneath exhibits the EPA he has added over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, counting playoffs, on scrambles within the fourth quarter and additional time when not more than eight factors separated Kansas Metropolis from its opponents on the scoreboard. Mahomes is a lot extra prolific than others, he’s nearly off the chart.
A league-leading seven of those scrambles added at the very least 5 p.c to the Chiefs’ win chance, per Subsequent Gen Stats.
Whereas some essential officiating calls have helped the Chiefs win shut video games not too long ago, together with a pass-interference name in opposition to Cincinnati on fourth-and-16 within the last minute in Week 2, Kansas Metropolis ranks solely fifteenth in penalty EPA per recreation in fourth quarters of one-score video games over the previous two seasons. Seattle has benefited essentially the most and Cleveland the least in these conditions.
The Chiefs, regardless of having latest turnover at kicker, have made all 18 field-goal tries within the fourth quarter of one-score video games over the previous two seasons. Their common kick distance in these conditions is the sixth-shortest within the league (35.2 yards), in all probability as a result of Mahomes and the offense do such job stepping into place. Cincinnati, in contrast, averages a league-long 46.4 yards on these kicks.
The smallest issues could make the most important variations in essentially the most essential conditions.
What it means within the playoffs
Earlier than the Chiefs, the 1976 Oakland Raiders owned the excellence because the 12-1 workforce with the bottom level differential (plus-89). That Raiders workforce gained the Tremendous Bowl, however solely after overcoming a 21-10 deficit within the fourth quarter to beat New England within the first spherical of the playoffs. Oakland bought a 1-yard landing move from Ken Stabler within the last 10 seconds to win 24-21 after officers controversially flagged the Patriots for roughing the passer on a third-and-18 incompletion. Not too troublesome to think about Kansas Metropolis pulling off one thing related, is it?
We’d additionally revisit that checklist of groups that have been 10-3 or higher by 13 video games, however with level differentials just like Kansas Metropolis’s this season.
These 2003 Patriots and 2015 Broncos gained the Tremendous Bowl. The 1978 Rams and 1981 Cowboys reached the NFC title recreation. The 2021 Packers misplaced within the divisional spherical. The 2013 Eagles misplaced within the wild-card spherical.
The Chiefs’ potential to win so many shut video games is a number one cause Kansas Metropolis has a league-best 78 p.c likelihood to safe a first-round playoff bye and home-field benefit within the playoffs.
Meaning Kansas Metropolis in all probability must win solely two playoff video games to achieve one other Tremendous Bowl.
What’s a two-game successful streak for a workforce that has gained 15 one-score video games in a row?
(Picture: Perry Knotts / Getty Photos)
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