Week 4 is within the books — and it nonetheless feels bizarre to say that’s technically not the quarter mark of the season anymore. No matter. September soccer is over now, so, spiritually, we’re shifting into a brand new part of the NFL season.
On this installment of Fast Outs, we’ve obtained a few star AFC quarterbacks who aren’t enjoying fairly like themselves, a worthy adversary for Brian Flores, and a bit of appreciation of one of many rarest runners the game has ever seen.
Time to dive in.
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Let’s discuss it: Patrick Mahomes’ turnover points
There may be an excessive amount of Texas Tech in Patrick Mahomes’ recreation proper now.
Mahomes has thrown 5 picks to start out the season — a minimum of one in every recreation, two in a near-loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. That complete — at present the third-most within the NFL — is probably the most Mahomes has ever thrown by means of the primary 4 video games of a season.
Now, we’ve carried out this music and dance with Mahomes earlier than. I do know that. He (and the Chiefs at giant) couldn’t cease turning the ball over early within the 2021 season both. A majority of the interceptions that season felt fluky, although. Drops, tipped passes, miscommunications — the whole lot that might go improper exterior of the quarterback’s management went improper.
That’s not likely the case proper now. The funky interception Mahomes threw to Roquan Smith within the opener can go down as a fluke, however I’m keen to place the others on Kansas Metropolis’s QB.
.@bengals decide off Mahomes on the primary play of the drive!
📺: #CINvsKC on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/q9G42w9vi0— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
In opposition to the Bengals, Mahomes threw his first interception by making an attempt to squeeze a deep sit route previous a zone defender in Cowl 2. The zone linebacker had no one to cowl on his facet of the sphere and melted proper again to the center to choose off Mahomes.
Later within the recreation, Mahomes tossed up a 50-50 ball to 165-pound Xavier Worthy vs. CB Cam Taylor-Britt. Taylor-Britt made an insane one-handed catch, little question, however there’s simply no world during which throwing a contested go ball to Worthy towards a a lot larger cornerback makes any sense.
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Mahomes’ end-zone interception towards the Atlanta Falcons was a basic case of not seeing a security flying again throughout the sphere to seek out the ball. In opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers this previous weekend, Mahomes merely overthrew his man on a closely contested nook route. (I don’t knock him as harshly for that one as a result of it’s a throw I do know he’s able to making, however you continue to must hit it on the finish of the day.)
Mahomes might be going to be superb by the tip of the season. He’s the most effective quarterback within the league and a back-to-back defending Tremendous Bowl champion, so there’s no cause to doubt that that is only a blip on the radar.
The turnovers are a reliable challenge proper now, although, they usually have performed a large position in all the Chiefs’ video games being so shut.
Stat test: Trevor Lawrence’s off-target fee
One month into the season, Trevor Lawrence’s 16.4 p.c off-target fee is the third-worst within the NFL, in accordance with PFF. Solely Bryce Younger and Anthony Richardson have been worse. The previous was benched for Andy Dalton; the latter is seen because the league’s greatest scattershot, even by his most optimistic supporters.
Lawrence is an eminently irritating participant. For a lot of the previous three years, the movie has painted Lawrence in a optimistic gentle, regardless of misfortune throughout him. A pair misfires right here and there would draw out his greatest detractors, however Lawrence was by and enormous a stud on the place. The team-wide outcomes simply weren’t there.
That’s simply not the case proper now. Lawrence is much less correct than ever, plain and easy. These two or three misfires per recreation have was 5 – 6. He’s not a lot completely different or worse with regards to decision-making or creation means or aggressiveness — the throws simply aren’t connecting.
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Lawrence all the time had some bizarre misses, like I stated, however it’s by no means been this dangerous. He’s sometimes hovered round an 11 p.c off-target fee in different seasons, with a earlier excessive of 12.4 p.c. These are mediocre marks, however not debilitating by any means.
The cope angle when you’re a Jaguars fan is that Lawrence’s common depth of goal is way larger this yr, so naturally he must be lacking extra throws. That’s true. Lawrence’s 10.3-yard common depth of goal is almost two yards above his earlier profession excessive. Even with diploma of problem in thoughts, although, Lawrence is lacking far more than he ought to. Lawrence at present holds a -8.5 completion share over anticipated, in accordance with Subsequent Gen Stats; his earlier profession low was -5.3 p.c throughout that cursed rookie season below City Meyer.
I’m mildly involved that Lawrence is in want of a bit of profession rehabilitation. He’s not the identical participant we noticed peak on the finish of 2022 or battle by means of irritating circumstances in 2023. He’s additionally not damaged past restore, however there’s a stage of uncertainty and shakiness to the best way he performs now that was not there in years previous.
Hopefully issues normalize because the season goes on. Nonetheless, it’s onerous to think about the vibes across the NFL’s solely winless group are going to get significantly better.
Can we simply admire how ridiculous Derrick Henry is?
He’s a 6-foot-4, 247-pound home-run hitter — an optical phantasm at operating again. Each different runner with something near that model of construct is a bruiser, however Henry has all the time carried out his finest work on the perimeter and with a runway.
Furthermore, it’s a marvel Henry stays that sort of participant at 30 years outdated with greater than 2,000 NFL carries below his belt, by no means thoughts the beating he took at Alabama. The dreaded operating again “cliff” ought to have come for Henry, however he simply continues to outrun Father Time and run by means of opposing defenses. He appears to be like pretty much as good as ever in Baltimore’s purple and black.
GO OFF KING
Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/fJ5A4eP6on
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024
Henry does give the Ravens the meat between the tackles they wanted within the absence of Gus Edwards, however what he provides them out in area is the true catalyst for achievement. Henry is at present second in explosive rushes (12-plus yards) this season with 9, per TruMedia. The one participant forward of Henry is Indianapolis Colts operating again Jonathan Taylor (10 explosive runs).
A few of that explosive means is tied to what Lamar Jackson affords a speeding offense when it comes to area. The identical is true of Taylor enjoying alongside Richardson, however Henry actually is uniquely gifted within the open area for an enormous man. In 2024 alone, Henry has six runs on which he’s hit a minimum of 18 MPH, per Subsequent Gen Stats. All of the gamers forward of him on that record are quarterbacks (like Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray and, in fact, Jackson). It doesn’t compute {that a} man as giant as Henry can run with these guys.
Henry has lengthy been doing this, too. Since getting into the league in 2016, Henry has hit a minimum of 18 MPH on 85 runs. No different participant who weighs a minimum of 240 kilos has greater than 35 over that span — and it’s quarterback Cam Newton at that quantity. The one different operating again with double digit 18-plus MPH runs over that span is Najee Harris (12).
There simply isn’t one other dude like Henry. He has the dimensions and violence to destroy somebody’s day with the meanest stiff arm you’ve ever seen earlier than hitting the gasoline and tearing away from each different defender on the sphere. Henry is really considered one of one, and we must always admire how insanely cool it’s that he’s enjoying subsequent to Jackson in Baltimore’s backfield.
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Scramble drill: Jordan Love vs. Brian Flores
Jordan Love threw three picks in a loss, however I swear he had the best concept for methods to assault Brian Flores’ protection.
In principle, Love is the proper quarterback to cope with Flores’ blitz-laden protection. He’s each robust and artistic within the pocket. Furthermore, he throws with unwavering confidence — the sort of confidence that will get you burned as a lot because it does you any good. That’s the sort of mindset it’s worthwhile to beat a Flores protection that can ship our bodies, forcing you to make throws down the sphere and into site visitors.
The issue for the Packers is that the volatility that model of protection invitations obtained them within the first half.
.@k_grugierhill will get his arms on the INT!
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/iJVu45ANrt
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 29, 2024
Love’s first interception was on a square-in to Christian Watson. The Vikings put ‘backers in the best A and B gaps, solely to pop each off and drop them in protection. Love tried to beat them with the throw coming in from the left facet, however linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill made an unreal decide in site visitors.
Later within the half, Love threw one other interception on one other strain. Flores put 5 defenders on the road, baiting Inexperienced Bay to play a man-style safety scheme. The defensive linemen over the left guard knifed inside whereas the sting defender took it vast, opening an enormous lane for a blitzing off-ball linebacker to pop Love as he tried throwing a high-low idea. The ball tipped off his tight finish’s arms proper to a Vikings defender.
Love did what he needed to do from then on, although. He saved throwing from tight pockets and driving the ball into contested home windows, continued to bounce in and across the pocket to purchase time when wanted, and most of all, didn’t cease ripping it into all of the downfield voids left open by Flores’ blitzes. He didn’t again down or spiral uncontrolled the best way most guys do versus Flores.
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Love completed the day 7 of 17 for 188 yards, one landing and one decide on throws of a minimum of 15 yards. The completions, makes an attempt and yards had been greater than another quarterback on the week. It wasn’t excellent, by any means, however Love did the best factor by persevering with to battle hearth with hearth, in the end bringing the Packers shut sufficient to place the sport to an onside kick.
Groups and quarterbacks across the league ought to take discover of the harm Love did by enjoying like a psychopath within the second half. If Flores goes to name an unhinged model of protection, the quarterback has to play equally unhinged to beat it.
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Prime photograph of Patrick Mahomes: Ronald Martinez / Getty Pictures)