New Delhi: If the variety of its elected lawmakers have been to find out a celebration’s power, the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) would at finest be a marginal participant in Andhra Pradesh, the place it drew a clean within the final Lok Sabha and state meeting elections in 2019.
But, in some ways, the BJP has been occupying the centre stage of political discourse within the state within the run-up to the 2024 elections.
The strategy of each the ruling Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Social gathering (YSRCP) within the state, and the Telugu Desam Social gathering (TDP) — the primary opposition social gathering in Andhra — counsel that these events would moderately dodge the BJP’s fusillades, than be confrontational, giving the BJP a place of perceived power regardless of its weak electoral presence.
Previously, each the YSRCP and the TDP supported contentious legislations such because the Citizenship Modification Act, and choices such because the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. Each the Andhra events additionally endorsed the NDA-backed candidates within the final presidential and vice-presidential polls.
“The issue is nobody opposes us within the state. It’s virtually as if the dearth of voices resisting us is impeding our progress,” a high central BJP chief advised ThePrint. He was talking solely half in jest.
The presence of each the YSRCP and the TDP on the inauguration of the brand new Parliament constructing by Prime Minister Narendra Modi final month, which was boycotted by 21 Opposition events, additional illustrates this level.
“The BJP is a essential participant in Andhra Pradesh regardless of its marginal presence there as a result of it holds the levers of energy on the Centre. It [previously] noticed Telangana as a extra fertile state for its progress, however the Karnataka loss [last month] seems to have dealt a blow to its ambition. Now the Congress is on the upswing in Telangana,” mentioned Okay. Srinivasulu, a retired professor of Hyderabad’s Osmania College.
There appears to be rising buzz in Andhra’s political circles over a doable political realignment within the state within the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha and Andhra meeting elections.
Social gathering insiders and political observers in Andhra advised ThePrint that the BJP appears to be taking a extra aggressive stand in opposition to the YSRCP — a celebration the BJP has been in a position to rely upon, regardless of it not being a part of the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA), particularly within the Rajya Sabha the place the NDA is in minority — whereas responding extra warmly in direction of former ally TDP.
Whereas barbs in opposition to the ruling YSCRCP in Andhra by the BJP’s state unit will not be new, political observers claimed that the nationwide social gathering’s central management had thus far avoided making a direct assault in opposition to YSRCP chief and Andhra CM Jagan Mohan Reddy.
That modified this month after Union Dwelling Minister Amit Shah met TDP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu on 4 June. The TDP had walked out of the NDA in 2018 over variations on funding for Andhra Pradesh.
Six days after the Shah-Naidu assembly, BJP president J.P. Nadda focused the YSRCP authorities in Andhra, terming it one of many “most corrupt”. Days later, on 11 June, Union Dwelling Minister Amit Shah waded into the problem, placing Reddy on the dock for not simply “corruption and scandals”, but additionally over the latter’s “failure” to stem farmer suicides.
Reddy, nonetheless, issued a restrained response to the barb, saying he was not banking on the assist of the BJP for retaining energy.
“The BJP’s rapid concern is public opinion constructing [against the perception] that the social gathering is hand in glove with the YSRCP, which is perceived [by people] to be corrupt. The non-arrest of Kadapa MP Avinash Reddy, an accused within the Vivekananda Reddy homicide case, can be emboldening that notion because the case is being dealt with by the CBI, which comes below the Centre,” mentioned an Andhra BJP chief.
Reddy, a former MP and uncle of CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, was discovered murdered in March 2019.
Whereas many political observers really feel Naidu stands to achieve extra within the occasion of an alliance with the BJP as a consequence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s standard attraction, there may be additionally a notion that the BJP-YSRCP’s current sparring could be a 2024 ballot gimmick.
Subramanyam Dogiparthi, a retired academician and political commentator primarily based in Andhra Pradesh, believes that the YSRCP and BJP have been placing up a “faux struggle”. He added {that a} pre-poll alliance with the BJP fits neither TDP, nor the YSRCP.
“It’s a hard and fast match between the 2 [the BJP and YSRCP]. By sparring publicly, the YSRCP needs to interrupt the notion that it’s an unofficial ally of the BJP, which is in flip solely serving to Jagan. The YSRCP fears {that a} perceived affinity with the BJP will make its minority vote financial institution anxious. The BJP, alternatively, is aware of it wants the YSRCP’s assist within the Rajya Sabha to get key Payments handed. Naidu additionally stands to achieve extra anti-incumbency votes if it stays out of any alliance with the BJP, which is aware of very nicely that the TDP is not any pushover,” mentioned Dogiparthi.
BJP nationwide secretary and co-in-charge of Andhra Pradesh Sunil Deodhar, who ThePrint spoke to on the BJP’s technique for the upcoming elections, refused to touch upon particular alliance-related questions.
In the meantime, TDP Rajya Sabha MP Okay. Ravindra Kumar advised The Print, “It will be too untimely to remark [on a possible alliance between the TDP and BJP].”
Including to the speculations on social gathering equations within the state forward of subsequent yr’s elections, YSRCP Rajya Sabha MP V. Vijayasai Reddy tweeted Thursday, “We don’t want alliances, the @YSRCParty has labored exhausting for the individuals and we’re assured that the individuals will bless us once more. Additionally, it doesn’t matter if the opposition comes collectively in AP as a result of all the time keep in mind that zero + zero equals zero!!”
We don’t want alliances, the @YSRCParty has labored exhausting for the individuals and we’re assured that the individuals will bless us once more. Additionally, it doesn’t matter if the opposition comes collectively in AP as a result of all the time keep in mind that zero + zero equals zero!!
— Vijayasai Reddy V (@VSReddy_MP) June 15, 2023
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Speaking factors
Whereas the central management’s concentrating on of Reddy is current, the state BJP unit has been severely essential of the YSRCP, notably in regards to the CM’s religion. Reddy is Christian.
In line with Deodhar the alleged difficulty of “conversion” of Hindus to Islam and Christianity is among the many areas recognized by the BJP for its ballot marketing campaign.
“We’re telling the folks that the YSR Congress is neck-deep in corruption. There’s full monetary mismanagement which is able to land the state in hassle. On high of that, spiritual conversions are rampant. Pastors are being paid by the general public exchequer. Temples are razed and perpetrators go scot-free. We’ve got additionally promised to scrap the three per cent reservation for Muslims launched by the Congress below Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy [former CM and Jagan Reddy’s father],” Deodhar mentioned.
Parallelly, whereas Naidu’s previous makes an attempt to heat as much as the BJP have been seemingly cold-shouldered by the BJP, it seems extra open to the concept now, notably after having suffered a blow in Karnataka, dropping its solely authorities within the south, mentioned political observers.
The BJP is already an ally of actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s outfit Jana Sena Social gathering (JSP), which can be prone to formalise an alliance with the TDP.
“Our job, for now, is to attract the anti-establishment votes. Any choice on alliances or seat-sharing is one thing that shall be dealt with by the central management,” mentioned a BJP chief.
Some YSRCP leaders, nonetheless, really feel that the BJP’s calculations transcend stopping a repeat of its 2019 debacle within the state, when it didn’t win a single Lok Sabha or meeting seat, and needed to settle with a vote share of 0.96 per cent and 0.84 per cent respectively.
In 2014, which was the final Lok Sabha election held in a united Andhra Pradesh, the BJP, contesting in an alliance with the TDP, had bagged three Lok Sabha and 9 meeting seats, with a vote share of seven.2 per cent and 4.13 per cent respectively.
“The BJP, it seems, has sensed a gap to copy the Maharashtra template. It needs to enter the state by utilizing TDP as a clutch, and later discard it to return by itself. The YSRCP can be dealing with headwinds, as illustrated by the outcomes of the just lately held polls to the state legislative council,” mentioned a YSRCP chief.
Within the polls for seven vacant MLA quota legislative council seats held on 23 March, the TDP pulled off a shock win, as 4 YSRCP MLAs cross-voted. The TDP additionally gained three seats in MLC polls held within the graduates constituencies on 13 March, registering its first set of electoral victories since struggling a drubbing within the 2019 Lok Sabha and meeting polls.
In the meantime, the BJP is attempting to construct its personal base within the state.
In April, the BJP inducted Kiran Kumar Reddy, the final chief minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh, into the social gathering. The social gathering lacks standard faces in its fold.
Other than Reddy votes, which is taken into account a YSRCP vote financial institution, the BJP can be eyeing backward caste votes, primarily Kapus, to develop within the state, mentioned political observers. The state BJP president Somu Veerraju is a Kapu.
TDP, alternatively, attracts its assist from the Kamma group, which suffered a significant blow economically when Jagan scrapped TDP’s plan to have Amaravati because the state capital, identified Srinivasulu, a professor of political science at Osmania College.
“The YSRCP has no cause to ally with the BJP because it want to retain the minority votes. The TDP, which additionally doesn’t stand to achieve a lot, seems determined extra as a result of it might be feeling that allying with the BJP will assist neutralise the political onslaught of the YSRCP,” he mentioned.
Srinivasulu added: “We should additionally remember the fact that if the TDP doesn’t do nicely this time, there shall be questions on its future because the social gathering doesn’t have a sturdy second-generation management. Naidu is rising outdated and his son didn’t show himself.”
(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)
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