Russell Wilson enjoying for a brand new contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks among the many high quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s last weeks. There are various others of curiosity, which makes this a great time to test in on all 32 quarterback conditions.
As I normally do that time of 12 months, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets primarily based on how their groups ought to really feel about them, from “Dedicated With out Reservation” at one finish to “We’re Wanting For A Means Out” on the different.
The New York Giants’ present starter (Drew Lock) just isn’t listed, however their former one (Daniel Jones) does seem. I’ve included contract length and wage rank, together with the place every ranks in EPA per cross play among the many 40 quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 cross makes an attempt this season.
1. Dedicated With out Reservation
We’ve top-five QBs of their primes, signed to long-term contracts.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Signed via: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40
There’s been an fascinating statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in current weeks. After tossing eight landing passes with 9 interceptions within the first seven video games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in 5 subsequent video games. His sack price has additionally jumped from 5.1 p.c to 9.0 p.c, whereas his price of passes gaining greater than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these items have an effect on how the Chiefs really feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (4) and game-winning drives (six), per Professional Soccer Reference.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Payments
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40
Allen has grow to be the betting favourite for MVP honors in current weeks and is every thing the Payments hoped they have been getting after they traded as much as draft him in 2018. His sack price has fallen and his explosive cross price has risen throughout all three offensive coordinators throughout his seven seasons.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Signed via: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40
The Ravens are profitable the large wager they made on Jackson after they signed him to an extension earlier than the 2023 season. Jackson’s manufacturing, in decline earlier than he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 extra complete touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for the very best differential within the league. Jackson ranked twenty first (+13) throughout the 2021-22 seasons.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Signed via: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40
Burrow handed for 820 yards with 9 touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play however solely thirtieth on the defensive aspect. That’s the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings by means of Week 13. The opposite groups with comparable disparities embody the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Signed via: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40
Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting earlier than the 2023 and 2024 seasons regardless of slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 coming into 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking extra sacks for a staff that’s profitable on protection. It’s tough to think about coach Jim Harbaugh straying too removed from his run-heavy philosophy.
2. Dedicated And Hoping The Sky Is The Restrict
We expect our younger QBs can grow to be stars (and there’s some proof to show we’re proper).
Jordan Love, Inexperienced Bay Packers
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40
Evaluating Like to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would appear unfair if Love weren’t beginning his profession with comparable manufacturing.
Rodgers by means of 27 begins: 64 p.c completions, 7.8 yards per try, 50 landing passes, 18 interceptions
Love by means of 27 begins: 63 p.c completions, 7.4 yards per try, 51 landing passes, 23 interceptions
The principle variations: Rodgers added extra EPA on scrambles and misplaced extra EPA on sacks, whereas Love has misplaced extra on interceptions.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Signed via: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40
To what diploma does Stroud’s decline in manufacturing from his rookie season replicate a weakened offensive line and accidents at receiver?
That might be a key query heading into subsequent season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the 12 months.
3. Dedicated And Content material
We’ve veteran quarterbacks signed for the long run and are pleased with the state of affairs.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40
Goff is proving to be an ideal good-team quarterback.
Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Tremendous Bowl season with the Rams by means of 12 video games, besides he’s throwing the ball much less continuously and throwing it shorter, which implies a better completion price and fewer explosive features.
Every little thing else is about the identical: the won-lost file (11-1 each years), the passer score (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per try (9.1 then, 8.8 now).
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40
The Eagles are 31-4 by means of the primary 12 video games of the previous three seasons with Hurts within the lineup. The large distinction this season is how way more Philadelphia is leaning on its protection and floor recreation, led by Saquon Barkley.
Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has tried 304 passes through the 10-2 begin this season, down from 403 through the staff’s 10-2 begin final season. That’s a drop from 33.5 makes an attempt per recreation to 25.3 per recreation.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40
Murray appears to have matured and is now not outlined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later faraway from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.
After lacking components of the previous two seasons with a torn ACL, he has began the primary 12 video games of a season for the primary time since 2020, his second 12 months within the league.
One huge distinction from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per recreation then, in comparison with a career-low 3.9 this season. Whereas he leads the league in ESPN’s Complete QBR metric, groups are blitzing Murray way more successfully than in current seasons.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40
The Cowboys have had a profitable file six occasions in seven seasons when Prescott began a minimum of half the video games and by no means had a dropping season (they have been 8-8 in 2019). However the staff fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring damage and his new contract is ready to depend $89 million in opposition to the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the long run look murkier.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40
Mayfield has discovered a house in Tampa and is offering a stable return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million funding in him. Since becoming a member of Tampa Bay final season, he ranks tenth in EPA per cross play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in landing passes (53).
The Buccaneers have a mediocre file this season (6-6) as a result of the protection ranks twenty ninth in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals by means of 12 video games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer score (101.3) and EPA per cross play (0.11). He’s finished it for an offense that ranks fifth in factors per recreation (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.
4. Dedicated And Content material, With No Ensures
We like our QBs and have them signed past this season to offers containing little or no extra assured cash. This offers us extra flexibility to contemplate our choices.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40
When Stafford sought a brand new contract final offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million absolutely assured, with solely $4 million in ensures after this season. That offers the staff better flexibility to maneuver on from Stafford if some mixture of age/damage/efficiency leads the Rams to contemplate different choices. Stafford stays the best choice now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having 4 in 2021.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40
The way in which this Seahawks season has performed out below new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the staff skewing closely towards the cross and Kenneth Walker III rating thirtieth amongst operating backs in rush yards, the main target may fall extra on the general strategy than it falls on the particular person taking snaps from heart.
Regardless of the case, Smith stays below contract for 2025 below phrases favorable to the staff, as his $24.8 million in compensation just isn’t assured. That offers the Seahawks flexibility in the event that they determine to contemplate different choices.
Smith had 30 landing passes with 11 interceptions in his first season because the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to seek out consistency thus far this season.
5. Dedicated With Issues
We signed our QB to an costly long-term extension however can’t really feel nice about it, for various causes.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Signed via: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40
The Dolphins struggled to operate when Tagovailoa was not obtainable to them, pushing again in opposition to perceptions that the quarterback was principally a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the staff’s elite weaponry.
The staff has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, in contrast with -0.32 per play with out him. That’s the distinction between being a top-five offense this season and being greater than twice as unhealthy because the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy worth for studying extra in regards to the quarterback’s worth. The concussion he suffered in opposition to Buffalo in Week 2 spurred one other spherical of questions on his long-term well being and viability as a quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed via: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40
There’s little proof Lawrence can overcome robust conditions, or that the Jaguars will help him sufficient to make sure success, however the staff nonetheless entered right into a $275 million extension with him earlier than the season, when there was no looming deadline to take action.
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Right here’s the place Lawrence ranks in EPA per cross play: twenty fifth since 2021, twentieth since 2022, twenty fifth since 2023 and twenty fourth this season. He’ll probably stay among the many high 5 in common annual wage for years to return. Can he shut the hole?
6. Dedicated Till No Longer Dedicated
Our veteran starters might be on the way in which out, for various causes.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40
The Saints’ subsequent coach will probably assist determine what course the staff follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr might be tough given the staff’s salary-cap state of affairs, however all choices would appear to be on the desk because the membership units a brand new course. Designating him a post-June 1 launch would take advantage of sense if the Saints determine to chop ties.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Signed via: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40
Cousins might be operating out of possibilities to reverse a current slide in manufacturing. How lengthy earlier than first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. turns into the best choice? It appears becoming that this profession crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota in opposition to his former staff in Week 14. Right here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up throughout pregame, a minimum of.
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Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40
Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million choice for 2025. It’s tough to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh appears applicable and Rodgers, who simply turned 41, has misplaced athleticism.
As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this is perhaps worse: The staff’s 88.2 passer score is its second-best by means of 12 video games since 2008.
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7. Dedicated, However At What Worth?
Our QB has earned an extension, however current occasions have raised questions in regards to the worth.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Signed via: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40
Purdy, with lower than $3 million in profession earnings, has a $1.1 million wage in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s greatest discount over the previous two-plus seasons and ought to be in line for an enormous elevate, however how huge?
Six weeks in the past, the dialog revolved round whether or not Purdy would possibly money in for $60 million per 12 months. However because the season slips away and a few of Purdy’s bodily limitations floor, may the 49ers determine to attend? May they pursue extra of a compromise deal, within the spirit of what Inexperienced Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to determine one thing.
8. Heaps to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks Forward
The veteran we signed on a budget will command an extension if this retains up.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40
The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (whereas nonetheless accumulating $37.8 million from Denver on his earlier deal) ranks as the largest discount within the league this season.
Wilson’s passing manufacturing in six begins tasks to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The ultimate 5 video games ship some tough defenses, however with the Steelers all however assured a playoff berth, Wilson has an ideal alternative to make Pittsburgh his longer-term residence.
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9. Evaluating: Lengthy Runways
Our first-round rookies are simply getting began.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Signed via: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40
This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess together with some preexisting sturdiness issues, however Washington have to be very pleased with its collection of Daniels general. His EPA per cross play ranks fifth by means of 13 begins amongst all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank larger. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth by means of eighth, respectively. That’s good firm for Daniels.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Signed via: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40
Williams has gone from rating among the many backside 10 in EPA per cross play below former coordinator Shane Waldron to rating among the many high 10 after three video games with Thomas Brown within the function. Whether or not that’s sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 decide within the 2024 draft. Who might be teaching Williams for the long run?
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Signed via: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40
Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 landing passes with one interception in eight video games, together with six Denver victories. He ranks among the many high 10 in a variety of passing classes, together with EPA per cross play, since Week 8.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Signed via: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40
Maye has much less round him than the opposite first-round rookie quarterbacks, one cause the Patriots have been reluctant to begin him straight away. He has arguably outperformed expectations provided that context, shifting the main target away from him and onto what New England should do to assist him within the coming offseason.
10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking
We haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, however there’s some urgency.
Bryce Younger, Carolina Panthers
Benched after solely two video games this season, Younger has performed properly sufficient in 5 video games since his return to resume hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive factors per recreation since Younger’s return. That they had a 2-16 file whereas averaging 11.2 factors per recreation on offense in his earlier 18 begins.
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Signed via: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Signed via: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40
The Colts have been a lot worse on offense through the two video games Joe Flacco began than they have been beforehand or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the previous three video games. Richardson stays a low-percentage passer able to the spectacular however continues to be searching for consistency. How affected person will the Colts be in creating him?
11. Evaluating: Want An Different
Our younger QB may play his means right into a future with us, but it surely’s wanting like we’ll be out there for an improve.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40
The Titans’ present teaching workers inherited Levis and will maintain him however presumably wouldn’t need to wager its future on him, given the returns thus far. Can Levis end sturdy?
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40
The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster coming into this season and most popular signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per 12 months. Can O’Connell play his means into their future plans over the remaining 5 video games? His 340-yard recreation at Kansas Metropolis was a begin.
12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Decide)
We’re grateful for our QB however dedicated to a special one.
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40
The belief right here is that Darnold has performed properly sufficient to earn a possibility better than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round decide J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgical procedure to presumably declare the beginning job.
13. Probably Headed to Free Company as a Bridge Starter/Backup
There might be a marketplace for these veterans, however not essentially because the undisputed starter.
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40
The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive factors per recreation when Winston begins after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was within the lineup earlier within the season. Their price of explosive cross performs has greater than doubled from 8.4 p.c with Watson to 17.8 p.c with Winston.
It’s attainable the Browns or one other staff will challenge Winston as a starter subsequent season. The 2 decide sixes Winston threw in opposition to Denver on Monday evening tempered a few of the current enthusiasm.
Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Signed via: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40
Jones may fill the Darnold function for the Vikings subsequent season if Darnold finds a greater alternative elsewhere. He may additionally check the market, though further time with O’Connell in Minnesota might be good for his profession long run.
14. We’re Wanting For A Means Out
Assist! Our quarterback couldn’t begin for any staff, however we owe him greater than $90 million over the subsequent two seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Signed via: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40
The worst contract in NFL historical past isn’t getting higher quickly sufficient for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to depend $72.9 million in opposition to the cap in every of the subsequent two seasons. These figures might be manipulated in varied methods, however Watson is getting his cash regardless, until he violates the contract ultimately.
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(High picture of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Pictures)
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