New Delhi: In Could this 12 months, Karnataka grew to become the fifth state in a row the place the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by firebrand Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi, didn’t open its account within the meeting election, dropping each the seats it had contested.
Because the counting of votes in Karnataka was accomplished, it grew to become evident that the rise of the Congress — which clinched a decisive victory within the polls — had queered the pitch for the Muslim-centric AIMIM, in addition to the Social Democratic Occasion of India (SDPI), the political arm of the banned Islamist organisation In style Entrance of India, with Muslim voters showing to repose religion within the Congress. The Congress’s victory in Karnataka additionally contrasted with the slide-in seat share of the Janata Dal (Secular).
For the AIMIM, its efficiency within the 2020 Bihar meeting elections — when it gained 5 of the 20 seats it had contested — had been a breakthrough second.
The celebration has lengthy been striving to develop past its citadel of Hyderabad, and following the Bihar triumph, Owaisi had declared that he had his eyes set on Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. However the AIMIM carried out miserably in each states, failing to win a single seat regardless of Owaisi’s aggressive campaigning.
Within the 2021 West Bengal meeting polls, for which the AIMIM fielded seven candidates, the celebration drew a clean, with a vote share of 0.02 % within the seats it contested. In Tamil Nadu, which additionally went to polls with West Bengal, all three candidates fielded by the celebration misplaced, as AIMIM managed a vote share of simply 0.01 % from the three seats.
A 12 months later, as Uttar Pradesh voted for the 2022 meeting polls, the AIMIM fielded 97 candidates. None of them gained, and the celebration’s vote share on the seats it contested was a measly 0.49 %.
In Uttarakhand, the place meeting polls have been held together with UP, all 4 AIMIM candidates forfeited deposits.
The Karnataka meeting polls, held on 10 Could this 12 months, noticed the AIMIM discipline two candidates in minority-dominated seats. Nevertheless, within the Hubballi-Dharwad East seat, its candidate polled round 5,600 votes, whereas in Basavana Bagewadi, its candidate acquired round 1,400 votes, because the Muslim vote financial institution rallied firmly behind the Congress, which acquired 85426 and 68126 votes in Hubbali-Dharward East and Basavana Bagevadi, respectively.
At the moment, aside from its conventional stronghold of Telangana, the place it has seven MLAs, the AIMIM has two MLAs in Maharashtra and an MP — Imtiyaz Jaleel — from the state’s Aurangabad constituency. The AIMIM had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.
Owaisi, nonetheless, has a distinct tackle the AIMIM’s efficiency.
Talking to ThePrint Friday, he admitted that profitable elections is satisfying for any politician, however identified that fielding candidates can be essential to broaden a celebration’s footprint and strengthen its organisation.
“The states the place we’ve misplaced are those the place we contested for the primary time, apart from Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, we misplaced badly in 2015 once we contested for the primary time. In 2020, we met with success,” he stated.
He added: “We additionally fielded a really restricted variety of candidates within the states the place we misplaced. Additionally, one should not overlook that we carried out properly within the Uttar Pradesh municipal polls. We have now 11 corporators in Meerut. Our mayoral candidate in Meerut completed second. We did properly within the Madhya Pradesh civil polls as properly.”
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‘But to realize political legitimacy’
The string of electoral defeats has not dented Owaisi’s growth hopes.
Final week, he engaged in a verbal duel with the Congress over the query of political illustration and rights of Muslims in Rajasthan, the place elections are due in 5 months.
Whereas Owaisi reportedly accused the Congress, which is in energy in Rajasthan, of remaining silent on “injustices” towards the Muslim group, the Ashok Gehlot authorities shot again, calling AIMIM the “B-team” of the rival BJP, which is making a concerted push to return to energy within the desert state forward of the 2024 common elections.
To many, the script which performed out in Jaipur will ring acquainted, as in state after state, Owaisi’s outfit, which practices a model of politics anchored within the Muslim identification, has invited related accusations from not simply the Congress, however many different non-BJP events which might be claimants of the secular political house.
Political analyst Afroz Alam believes the AIMIM’s string of electoral defeats is no surprise because the celebration is but to realize political legitimacy within the eyes of Indian Muslims.
“For those who have a look at the voting behaviour of Indian Muslims, they’ve hardly rallied behind so-called Muslim events, aside from exceptions just like the All India United Democratic Entrance in Assam and Indian Union Muslim League in Kerala, the place regional elements are extra outstanding than spiritual points,” Alam, head of the Division of Political Science at Hyderabad’s Maulana Azad Nationwide Urdu College, instructed ThePrint.
Nevertheless, like Owaisi himself, Alam additionally identified that the AIMIM has made its presence felt in native physique elections in lots of states.
One other long-time observer of the AIMIM, who teaches at a reputed public college, shared an identical view. Talking to ThePrint on situation of anonymity, the AIMIM observer added that the celebration’s outsized illustration within the discursive sphere can’t be underplayed both.
“There may be additionally a utilitarian worth of the celebration. It may give political house to the rising aspirations of Muslim youth who is probably not accommodated by the standard events that declare to signify secular, social justice politics. In Bihar, for instance, the 5 candidates that gained on AIMIM tickets didn’t have any lengthy affiliation with the celebration. That’s the reason, the second they felt that they didn’t stand to realize something in the long term by their affiliation with the AIMIM, they switched loyalties,” Alam stated.
In June 2022, 4 MLAs who had gained beneath the banner of AIMIM joined the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar. Solely the AIMIM state president and Amour MLA Akhtarul Iman stays with the celebration.
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A query for Muslims
In accordance with some political students, the spatial distribution of Muslims — who account for 14 % of India’s whole inhabitants in accordance with the 2011 Census — additionally makes the presence of a pan-India Muslim celebration unviable, no less than on the stage of the Lok Sabha.
Adnan Farooqui, an affiliate professor of political science at Jamia Millia Islamia, said in his paper, Political illustration of a minority: Muslim illustration in up to date India, printed in India Assessment in 2020, the “geographical unfold of the group has been a principal issue detrimental to the formation of viable Muslim-led events and its steady choice of mainstream events each on the nationwide and regional stage”.
Muslims voters are in majority in solely 15 of India’s 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, together with 5 in Jammu & Kashmir and one in Lakshadweep, in accordance with the paper, which added that at the moment Muslim MPs accounted for under 5 % of the whole Lok Sabha MPs, in accordance with the paper.
“The First Previous The Put up system makes it troublesome for a dispersed group to type a political platform completely representing their pursuits, because the unique pursuit of group curiosity may alienate others, and forestall their most popular celebration from reaching a plurality on the constituency stage,” the paper added.
Nevertheless, the AIMIM’s failure to go away a mark even in states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh which, with Bihar, have a big focus of Muslims (UP 19.28 %, Bengal 27.01 % and Bihar 16.87 %, in accordance with 2011 Census comparative evaluation) have sparked questions on the way forward for the celebration, which was established in 1927 as Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) within the erstwhile princely state of Hyderabad.
Owaisi instructed ThePrint: “This query is for the Muslim group, not Owaisi. There should be shortcomings inside us which we have to tackle. However extra importantly, the Muslim group wants to return out of the entice that ‘all we should always care about is our survival, that our existence is at stake’.”
He alleged: “Sure, Muslims and Dalits are on the receiving finish of extra atrocities in comparison with others, however problems with growth, colleges, hospitals, roads, must also matter to us and determine in our politics,” including that the Muslim youth provides him hope as they’ve realised that “one-way visitors can’t proceed anymore”.
‘Hindu proper and Muslim proper want one another’
The type of politics which the AIMIM at present practices, which is rooted in Constitutionalism, traces its genesis to Owaisi’s grandfather Abdul Wahed Owaisi, who later handed on the baton to his son Salahuddin Owaisi.
Asaduddin Owaisi took over the celebration reins in 2008, the identical 12 months he entered the Lok Sabha, profitable the Hyderabad constituency, which the AIMIM has held since 1984.
Whereas Owaisi is making an attempt to carve out an unbiased political house now, until 2012, the AIMIM was a part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
For now, regardless of a spate of electoral reverses, there are not any indicators of any rethink in political technique on Owaisi’s half.
His tackle the continuing efforts to present form to a joint opposition entrance to problem the BJP within the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is a living proof.
“Take a look at the Patna assembly [of parties in opposition to the BJP at the Centre]. Who turned up there? (Individuals’s Democratic Occasion chief) Mehbooba Mufti, who’s personally liable for permitting the BJP to realize a foothold in Jammu & Kashmir and its eventual bifurcation and abrogation of Article 370. Nitish Kumar give up as Bihar CM after which grew to become the CM once more with BJP’s assist. (West Bengal CM and Trinamool Congress chief) Mamata Banerjee publicly flaunts her gotra. So, what’s their ideological struggle with the BJP?” Owaisi requested.
Alam underlined that the AIMIM might not have winnability, however it can proceed to have an overbearing presence within the political discourse as increasingly events hesitate to talk vocally on points regarding the rights of Muslims
“The position of AIMIM shouldn’t be concerning the share of votes. It’s extra about shaping the political angle of individuals. Whereas few might vote for it, many will consolidate in favour of different events that can whip up sentiments or polarise utilizing the previous’s title. In any case, the Hindu proper wing and Muslim proper wing are in existential want of one another. One can’t exist with out the opposite,” he stated.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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