March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.08 (-0.53%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -2.00 (-0.47%).
Sugar costs settled decrease on Friday amid stress from a stronger greenback. The greenback index (DXY00) climbed to a 4-week excessive on Friday, weighing on most commodities, together with sugar.
Losses in sugar costs are restricted amid expectations of index-related shopping for of sugar futures for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes. Citigroup tasks that the BCOM and S&P GSCI indexes, the 2 largest commodity indexes, will see inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts over the subsequent week to rebalance the indexes.
Final Monday, NY sugar matched a 2.5-month excessive on expectations of smaller future sugar provides from Brazil. Consulting agency Safras & Mercado stated on December 23 that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
Final Friday, sugar costs fell to 3-week lows on indicators of stronger sugar output in India. The India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) final Thursday reported that Indian sugar manufacturing for 2025-26, from October 1 to December 31, jumped 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT from 9.54 MMT the identical time final 12 months. Additionally, the ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally minimize its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can enable India to spice up its sugar exports. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar costs have been underneath stress amid prospects of upper sugar exports from India, after India’s meals secretary stated the federal government could allow further sugar exports to scale back a home provide glut. In November, India’s meals ministry stated it will enable mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain lowered manufacturing and restricted home provides.
The outlook for document sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by means of November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.