Unmanned vans transport containers at Dapukou Container Terminal in Zhoushan Port, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China, on December 9, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Pictures
BEIJING — Provide chain diversification away from China is about to maneuver from simply discuss to motion.
That is what Jens Eskelund, president, European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, instructed reporters on Tuesday forward of the launch of a report on provide chain dangers, and as companies sit up for the brand new yr after a tumultuous 2025.
“Dependencies are being mentioned in way more element than they have been earlier than … Are we even certain Europe can manufacture toothpaste with out substances sourced in China?” Eskelund mentioned.
Reflecting continued international demand, China’s commerce surplus for the yr by November reached a report $1 trillion, based on official figures launched Monday. Which means the nation exported way over it imported, regardless of U.S. tariffs.
“The upper that manufacturing goes up, the upper the chance that international locations will start to react,” Eskelund mentioned. He identified China confronted a report excessive of 198 World Commerce Group commerce investigations final yr, properly over half of which have been from growing international locations.
Different figures cited by the EU Chamber in its report Wednesday confirmed that China’s share in containers shipped globally was creeping up — at 37% for the primary three quarters of this yr, up from 36% on the finish of 2024 and 31.7% earlier than the pandemic in 2019.
A weak Chinese language foreign money and home overproduction contributed to that development, the chamber mentioned. It beneficial members “remove single-source dependencies” on the U.S. and China, and referred to as on EU policymakers to “speed up plans to determine and remove vital dependencies.”
Buyers have heard this dialog earlier than.
Throughout Covid-19, companies began to appreciate how reliant they have been on merchandise and components from China, when stringent lockdowns to regulate the virus disrupted manufacturing. The stakes for companies and their dwelling base governments are far increased now in comparison with the pandemic, Eskelund mentioned.
“That is really a giant shift, from you are involved primarily about whether or not you will have a provide chain that may bodily ship the product, after which whether or not your provide chain depends on a sure authorities place,” he mentioned.
As tensions between the U.S. and Beijing rose over tariffs and commerce obstacles this yr, Beijing ramped up export controls, together with on vital uncommon earths, bringing into mild the worldwide dependency on Chinese language manufacturing.
A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai earlier this yr discovered {that a} report share of respondents — 47% — had diverted investments deliberate for China.
At the beginning of the yr, the EU Chamber’s member survey discovered that enterprise sentiment was at a report low, with a report 73% of respondents saying doing enterprise within the Asian nation had change into tougher.
Nonetheless, greater than 1 / 4 of the respondents mentioned they have been rising onshoring in China, largely to satisfy Beijing’s localization necessities, with simply 10% taking a look at provide chains outdoors China — that’s altering now.
In November, the chamber carried out a short survey of 131 members in regards to the influence of China’s export controls and located that a couple of third of the respondents deliberate to look outdoors China for provides or growing capability outdoors the nation.
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It is much less clear whether or not diversification means reshoring.
“The fact is no person is reshoring it is all friendshoring,” mentioned Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior associate at consulting agency Tidalwave Options. “They’ll Mexico, they’ll Southeast Asia.”
“You need to anticipate Chinese language provide chains to change into extra dominant,” he mentioned, including that corporations will attempt to higher map out their complete provide chain, slightly than simply specializing in particular components. Chinese language companies may be those partnering with these abroad factories, or setting them up.
The EU commerce physique mentioned that about half of its members reported their China-based suppliers have been now shifting manufacturing to different markets.
Eskelund identified that automotive corporations from totally different international locations, more and more together with China, have taken this method. “Right here Chinese language corporations may be just a little forward of their very own authorities,” he mentioned.