The Jaguars overestimated themselves. Did they overestimate Trevor Lawrence, too?

The NFL’s largest shock groups by way of Week 4 reside at reverse ends of the standings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after dropping their extremely drafted rookie quarterback and substituting the well-traveled Sam Darnold in his place.

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 lower than 4 months after rewarding their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, with a $275 million extension.

Right here’s one other shock: Lawrence’s statistical manufacturing by way of his 54 profession begins mirrors the manufacturing for Darnold to the identical level in his profession (Darnold has made begins No. 57-60 this season).

It’s early for a Jaguars post-mortem, however up to now, Jacksonville suits the profile of a workforce that overestimated itself, symbolized most resoundingly when paying its quarterback. The workforce is going through robust questions sooner than anticipated as a result of winnable video games slipped away, leaving the Jaguars 0-4 for the second time in 4 seasons with Lawrence, and for the fourth time in 13 seasons with proprietor Shad Khan.

The schedule delivers beatable opponents over the subsequent three weeks within the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3), however sufficient has gone fallacious by way of the Jaguars’ first 4 video games to look at the proof. Together with that Darnold-Lawrence comp.

“It is not going to finish properly”

The Jaguars will not be the one workforce to speculate market-setting {dollars} in a quarterback carrying query marks lengthy earlier than there was a deadline for making a call. The Miami Dolphins acted equally with Tua Tagovailoa, as did the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray. Each Lawrence and Murray signed extensions with two years remaining on their rookie contracts.

Shortly after the Jaguars prolonged Lawrence’s deal for $55 million yearly, 50 coaches and executives voting in my 2024 Quarterback Tiers survey mixed to position Lawrence in Tier 3. Lawrence ranked sixteenth. Tagovailoa was one spot greater. Murray was one spot decrease. (These three quarterbacks’ groups are a mixed 2-10 this season.)

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The deal for Lawrence got here after the Jaguars misplaced 5 of their remaining six video games final season, with the one victory coming in opposition to Carolina, when Lawrence was unavailable due to damage.

“They’ve a quarterback they assume is a celebrity, and he’s not a celebrity,” a QB Tiers voter stated over the summer season. “Possession thinks he’s a celebrity. It is not going to finish properly.”

The implication was that Lawrence will be good, however not nice, and that he isn’t ok persistently sufficient to satisfy sky-high expectations.

“Make no mistake, that is the perfect workforce assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever,” Khan instructed followers in late August. “Finest gamers, greatest coaches. However most significantly, let’s show it by successful now.”

The Darnold comp

By way of 54 begins, Darnold and Lawrence had an identical won-lost data (20-34), the identical yards per cross try (6.7) and practically the identical common air yards per try. Their passer rankings lagged. Darnold took extra sacks. Lawrence suffered from extra dropped passes.

Lawrence had the higher anticipated factors added (EPA) per cross play, however in trying on the desk beneath, we’d by no means conclude that considered one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-setting extension, whereas the opposite was an abject failure.

Each gamers skilled horrible workforce conditions early of their careers — Darnold with the New York Jets within the NFL’s largest media market, Lawrence with Jacksonville in its smallest.

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“Good gamers will be in unhealthy conditions, unhealthy gamers will be in good conditions and it takes a short while to determine the true advantage generally,” a veteran coach stated.

Lawrence badly missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., for what would have been lengthy landing passes throughout the Jaguars’ 24-20 defeat at Houston in Week 4.

With these throws presumably in thoughts, coach Doug Pederson pushed again when requested after the sport about probably taking on play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I assumed he referred to as an awesome recreation. As coaches, we will’t go on the market and make the performs. It’s a two-way avenue.”

Lawrence missed Thomas alongside the appropriate sideline for what would have been one other massive achieve. Receivers made diving catches to safe two shorter throws. Different passes have been imprecise sufficient to restrict yards after the catch. A lot of the misses have been overthrows.

“When somebody is so persistently spraying the ball and they’re a man who was a No. 1 general (draft selection), I nearly all the time really feel like there’s some ingredient of, I don’t wish to say the yips, however some type of mechanical, elementary factor,” NFL quarterback-turned-analyst J.T. O’Sullivan stated whereas breaking down each Jaguars offensive play from Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan famous that Lawrence on this recreation hopped backward unnecessarily whereas throwing. Unhealthy habits can set in when quarterbacks don’t belief their cross safety. Lawrence took a punishing hit early within the Houston recreation because the Texans’ bodily defensive entrance asserted itself.

The Jaguars rank sixteenth in ESPN’s pass-block win charge metric and twenty third in Professional Soccer Focus’ pass-block grading, which doesn’t appear so unhealthy. Evaluations from inside the league have been harsher.

“They play up entrance like they will’t wait till the play is over — robust to look at,” a personnel govt stated earlier than the Houston recreation. “The quarterback is lacking simple throws. There’s unhealthy physique language. Simply typically, offensively, a downtrodden group.”

Contemplating a possible Wentz parallel

The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play throughout Pederson’s Tremendous Bowl-winning tenure as their coach from 2016 to 2020. That interval encompassed the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following the same arc on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares the cumulative cross EPA for Wentz and Lawrence when each have been with Pederson, pegged to profession begin quantity. The road for Wentz begins at profession begin No. 1, whereas the road for Lawrence begins at profession begin No. 18. There’s nothing definitive right here, however this could possibly be value revisiting because the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz late of their fifth and remaining season collectively. Lawrence stays early in his fourth NFL season and third with Pederson. His five-year contract extension begins in 2026. He’s doubtless going to be in Jacksonville for years to come back, regardless of who’s teaching.

9 consecutive defeats for Lawrence

Lawrence’s present nine-game dropping streak as a starter strikes him one away from matching Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest such streaks since 2000 for quarterbacks drafted No. 1.

Ten would additionally match the Jaguars’ franchise report, held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been there earlier than, as soon as dropping 9 straight with the Jets. However his current workforce and particular person manufacturing far outpaces that of Lawrence, because the desk beneath exhibits.

The choice to increase Lawrence’s contract at such an costly value doesn’t stand alone amongst selections inviting scrutiny for Jacksonville. They used the primary choose within the 2022 draft for Travon Walker as an alternative of Aidan Hutchinson. Larger-picture defensive modifications additionally stand out.

Final season, the Jaguars ranked twenty third on offense and eleventh on protection as measured by EPA per play. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and 7 defensive assistants.

The offense ranks about the identical this season (twenty fourth), however the protection ranks a lot worse (thirtieth) whereas transitioning to a brand new model. Below coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is taking part in man protection on the second-highest charge (42 p.c) after having the third-lowest charge (15 p.c) final season.

Darnold, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked protection by EPA per play, has tried solely two passes whereas trailing this season. The Jaguars’ report and Lawrence’s position in it might doubtless be footnotes if Jacksonville have been getting that sort of manufacturing from its protection this season.

The defensive modifications may nonetheless repay. Lawrence and the offense may nonetheless hit stride.

The Jaguars have been near breaking open their season-opening recreation at Miami, however operating again Travis Etienne fumbled as he neared the aim line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard landing two performs later. Jacksonville led Houston 20-17 late within the third quarter when Tank Bigsby’s 58-yard run gave the Jaguars first-and-goal from the 4. Jacksonville turned over the ball on downs.

The 24-20 defeat to Houston dropped the Jaguars to 1-4 because the begin of final season in video games determined by 4 or fewer factors. Such issues are inclined to even out. The night out can not occur quick sufficient for a workforce set to induct its solely successful coach, Tom Coughlin, into its Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Picture of Trevor Lawrence, proper, and Doug Pederson: Bryan Bennett / Getty Photographs)

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