The well-known wrestler Sting, in describing his character change in 1996 from a transparent babyface to a darker, enigmatic character, provided the proper axiom about predicting the longer term. Famous the Stinger: “The one factor that’s for positive about Sting is nothing’s for positive.”
This might be the identical for sports activities media. There are some developments that look apparent (elevated funding in ladies’s sports activities media; legacy media consolidation and layoffs; Netflix changing into a much bigger sports activities participant; extra media leaning into sports activities betting income), however who is aware of? Nonetheless, we convey you some guesses for 2025.
1. Tom Brady will stroll away from broadcasting earlier than the beginning of the 2025 NFL season
I’ve beforehand mentioned I’d put down huge cash that Brady is not going to end his 10-year, $375 million contract with Fox, given all his numerous enterprise pursuits away from broadcasting, together with possession. That is still true. The safer prediction could be that Brady walks away from his Fox deal after three or 4 years. However I’m going daring and saying Brady will get deeper concerned with the Las Vegas Raiders within the offseason and decides to go all in with NFL possession and his manufacturing firm by the beginning of the subsequent NFL season.
2. WNBA viewership will go up in 2025
This isn’t a second for girls’s sports activities; it’s been a motion for a while. Recreation 5 of the WNBA Finals — a 67-62 extra time thriller received by the New York Liberty — averaged 2.15 million viewers, the most-viewed WNBA Finals recreation in 25 years. The finals averaged 1.6 million viewers, up 115 p.c over final season. It capped a incredible yr of viewership for the league — and that is the place we completely point out that the catalyst for the viewership explosion was curiosity in Caitlin Clark. General, there have been 32 WNBA tv home windows amongst its media companions that topped 1 million viewers through the 2024 season, together with the WNBA Draft. That crushed the earlier file of 15.
Starting with the 2026 season, you’ll see new companions NBC and Amazon Prime Video as a part of a long-term TV rights deal, and it is best to count on them to take a position severe advertising {dollars}. Underneath the brand new agreements, Disney, NBC and Amazon will distribute greater than 125 regular-season and playoff video games nationally every season, together with a minimal of 25 regular-season video games on Disney platforms, 50 regular-season video games on NBCUniversal platforms and 30 regular-season video games on Amazon Prime Video. The league can even get a bump from a brand new franchise (Golden State Valkyries) and extra offseason publicity for star gamers because of the brand new 3-on-3 ladies’s basketball league, Unmatched, launching in January 2025.
Clark’s star will proceed to rise, and should you suppose bad-faith actors knocking her for culture-war factors are going to have an effect on viewership, I’d refer you to those that predicted NFL viewership was endlessly completed. It’s arrow up for the WNBA.
3. ESPN Flagship might be a right away hit
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service, code-named “Flagship,” will enable customers to entry your complete suite of ESPN networks and not using a conventional pay-TV subscription. That features the total programming lineup of ESPN+ and what at present airs on linear ESPN. There can even be integration with ESPN Fantasy and ESPN Guess. Studies point out a beginning worth of between $25 and $30 per 30 days, and the value level is what I believe will appeal to customers initially. I believe early subscriber numbers will exceed expectations, particularly given current huge will increase at YouTube TV.
The analysis agency MoffettNathanson, which supplies developments in media, communications and expertise to institutional traders, put out a notice this month projecting that “after an preliminary funding of $75 million in FY (fiscal yr) 2025 to get the service up and operating (anticipating a launch on the tail finish of FY 2025 in time for the beginning of the NFL season), we undertaking an preliminary a million paid subscribers in FY 2026, driving subscription revenues of simply over $200 million and advert revenues of $20 million.” I predict that quantity is larger by FY 2026.
4. Kevin Harlan will name NBA video games for Amazon Prime Video
Ian Eagle has an settlement in place as one in all Amazon’s lead broadcasters, and I predict Harlan joins him. A 1-2 game-calling mixture that includes Eagle and Harlan will give the streamer huge instantaneous credibility within the live-game house.
5. ESPN will decide out of its present MLB contract after the 2025 season
That is in all probability as near a layup prediction because it will get. MoffettNathanson mentioned opting out may save Disney/ESPN as a lot as $600 million in bills, though most count on a restructured contract. Will ESPN get native video games for Flagship?
6. UFC might be cut up between ESPN and Netflix
No inside intel from me — only a guess that UFC finally ends up echoing WWE and lands with each Disney and Netflix for its product. And thus begins Netflix stepping into huge on sports activities rights.
The UFC’s Dana White might be searching for — and getting, in line with Richard Deitsch’s prediction — enormous media offers in 2025. (Steve Marcus / Getty Pictures)
7. ESPN lastly commits to a devoted ladies’s basketball every day studio present through the WNBA season
You’ve a transcendent viewers attract Clark, a litany of fascinating All-Stars from A’ja Wilson to Kelsey Plum and an urge for food for storylines each on and off the court docket. If ESPN needs the credit score for constructing ladies’s basketball in America, because it all the time does, this isn’t even up for dialogue given the a number of shops it has. If this isn’t one thing that exists subsequent yr, the community needs to be crushed for it.
8. The Pac-12 will land no less than one name-brand media firm for its media rights
In November, the Pac-12 introduced that Octagon will function the company of file to information the convention by means of the media-rights panorama. That indicators to me that somebody with some weight goes to chunk, and I’ll take a flier that it will likely be WBD Sports activities, whose 2024 was outlined by shedding rights to the NBA on TNT. The 2026-27 season has Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State becoming a member of Oregon State and Washington State. The league wants another football-playing college to succeed in the edge to stay acknowledged as a convention inside the FBS division.
9. ESPN rents an energetic participant or coach for the NBA Finals
It’s been clear for a while that ESPN administration doesn’t desire a two-person sales space for its NBA Finals protection. It’s additionally clear that the community needs a notable identify (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers) to promote on the marquee.
Who may that be? My colleague Andrew Marchand posited on this piece in June that ESPN ought to already be courting the likes of LeBron James or Steph Curry within the occasion they’d ever contemplate broadcasting. That’s an fascinating long-term play. What I believe may be very probably for 2025 is somebody akin to Chris Paul changing into a visitor recreation analyst for the Finals. Longtime NBA coach Monty Williams would even be an fascinating one-off.
(High photograph: Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)