Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Quantity Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA, OTRI.USA
The nationwide Outbound Tender Quantity Index (OTVI) — which measures truckload demand — hit an all-time low for the month of October final week, registering a price of 9,311. This locations the index roughly 19% decrease than final 12 months and 15% under 2023 for a similar interval. Usually, a collapse of this magnitude would set off a corresponding drop in tender rejections and spot charges. Nevertheless, almost the other has occurred: rejection charges (OTRI) are larger than each 2023 and 2024 ranges, whereas spot charges have moved erratically over the previous two weeks however trended largely upward. This means that capability is leaving the market sooner than demand is declining — however let’s dive deeper.
A standard query folks ask is, “What number of vehicles are on the street?” Whereas intuitive, that’s an incomplete query. There could possibly be 1,000,000 vehicles obtainable for 500 hundreds, and we may nonetheless face a capability downside if these vehicles aren’t in the fitting locations. One of these imbalance occurs ceaselessly, even in well-supplied markets, although the results are normally short-lived.
The rise of freight brokers and cargo boards has improved service visibility and connectivity with obtainable freight. These instruments speed up market response instances, which may make charges risky within the quick time period however assist stop extended capability shortages.
Practically each service community operates out of steadiness. Carriers are consistently repositioning gear from markets with extra inbound freight to these with higher outbound demand. Southern California is the quintessential instance of this imbalance.
In Los Angeles, the Outbound Tender Quantity Index (OTVI) persistently exceeds the Inbound Tender Quantity Index (ITVI). With out carriers deliberately driving in empty — or “deadheading” — this market would shortly run out of accessible vehicles.
Carriers compensate by charging larger charges for hundreds leaving undersupplied markets like Los Angeles (generally known as headhauls) and decrease charges for freight leaving oversupplied markets (generally known as backhauls).
Probably the most well-known backhaul markets is Lakeland, Florida, the place tender knowledge signifies almost twice as a lot outbound freight as inbound freight. This imbalance is why charges from central Florida are usually among the many lowest within the nation.
Over the previous 18 months, long-haul demand — outlined as hundreds transferring greater than 800 miles—has fallen about 30% year-over-year. A lot of this decline is because of freight shifting towards rail and intermodal service. With many shippers pulling stock ahead and lengthening home supply timelines, the urgency to maneuver freight by truck has diminished.
Intermodal at present presents near-record financial savings in comparison with trucking, making it a straightforward selection for shippers who can use it. However this shift has disrupted connectivity between areas, making trucking extra regionalized and more durable to keep up as a nationwide community. In consequence, the market has develop into extra weak to demand spikes in long-haul lanes.
This development is exhibiting up within the knowledge: long-haul tender rejection charges (LOTRI) climbed to 12.5% this month, the best since Could 2024. At the moment, a wave of sudden West Coast imports — pushed by issues over maritime service stability — induced a short lived surge in rejections. The newest surge had no accompanying quantity.
Latest crackdowns on immigrant and non-domiciled drivers may be contributing to tightening circumstances. California, a frequent goal of Trump administration enforcement efforts, has seen extra scrutiny than different states, suggesting regional political bias in regulatory actions.
Whereas there’s a case to be made that latest redoubling of efforts by ICE on the trucking sector could also be an element just lately, it’s laborious to say that it has been the case all 12 months lengthy. Rejection charges elevated with out a related improve from demand in July and August earlier than falling again in September. That is extra supportive of service community challenges than regulatory exercise.
Spot charges from Los Angeles to Chicago — a lane that competes closely with intermodal—have been more and more erratic all through 2025 and trending larger since Could. Anybody working on this lane on the transactional facet has doubtless skilled rising inconsistency in obtainable capability.
FMCSA knowledge analyzed by Provider Particulars reveals capability continues to exit the market at a speedy tempo. This knowledge is extra reflective of the multi-year freight downturn than ICE raids and regulatory stress. The added pressure from the federal government helps to exacerbate the results of the lengthy operating freight recession and making it much less weak to the worsening demand facet economics.
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