With the calendar about to flip over to April, we’re down to a few weeks left within the common season. And which means we don’t have many of those columns left. The end line is in sight.
It’s protected to imagine the previous few weeks will probably be devoted to breaking down the assorted playoff races, until each bubble workforce within the East simply voluntarily folds their franchise to keep away from touchdown a spot it’s clear no person needs. However on this semi-calm earlier than the storm, a couple of of you may have identified we’ve but to go to an annual custom round right here: recognizing the groups that made it by way of all the season with out ever touchdown in both the highest or backside 5.
That is the true center of the pack, though as you’ll see, they arrive in some very completely different flavors. And this yr, the numbers reinforce that in a pleasingly symmetrical manner: 11 completely different groups confirmed up within the high 5, and 11 extra had at the least one look within the backside 5. That leaves us with a fair 10 groups that didn’t seem on both listing all season lengthy. Let’s divide them into classes.
Bonus 5: The groups that haven’t made the highest or backside 5 all yr
5. The great groups that would nonetheless theoretically discover the highest 5: It’s powerful to crack both listing for the primary time this late within the season, however two groups have been ok to be in high 5 consideration at a couple of factors throughout the yr and will theoretically nonetheless make it.
That will be the Lightning and the Maple Leafs, two groups battling with the Panthers for first within the Atlantic. The Panthers have been within the high 5 for a lot of the season regardless of having an analogous document, which I feel is honest given all their current playoff success. However first place and a matchup with a wild-card is looming massive, so if both the Leafs or Lightning bought red-hot and ran away with the division down the stretch, they’d have a top-five case. For now, although, they’ve been simply brief.
4. The groups that weren’t near the highest 5 however are nonetheless proud of their season: I’ll put 4 groups on this class. The primary is the Kings, a traditional case of a workforce that’s been constantly good with occasional gusts as much as nice, however by no means all that near top-five standing. I’ll additionally embrace the Senators and Blues, two groups which have had their ups and downs however appear to be playoff groups down the stretch. After which there’s the Flames, a pleasant story that appears to be fading down the stretch. I’m unsure that ending tenth within the West would really feel like a serious success, however this can be a workforce plenty of us wrote off earlier than the season even began, and so they spent a lot of the yr proving us mistaken.
3. The true mushy center groups: This may be the Islanders and Utah, two groups that spent the yr plugging away, hanging proper across the playoff combine with out ever wanting particularly threatening. I’m unsure there was a single week all yr wherein both workforce even occurred to me as a professional contender for both listing. They’re advantageous.
That leaves us with two groups, every of whom deserves its personal class.
2. The catastrophe: That will be the Bruins. They began gradual, fired the coach, by no means bought greater than a few video games over pretend .500, light within the second half, bought on the deadline and are actually cratering their method to a depressing end. They’re really nearer to the underside of the standings than I’d realized, so there’s a small however non-zero likelihood they may really discover the underside 5 by the top of issues. What a large number.
1. The thriller: That leaves us with the one workforce I nonetheless can’t determine. Sure, it’s the Canucks, a workforce whose season has fallen nicely in need of expectations however remains to be within the playoff hunt, if solely barely, regardless of a firehose of drama, buying and selling away one in all their greatest gamers, key accidents and a coach who seems like he needs to strangle somebody always. Each sport these guys play is a curler coaster. I do know they’re not among the many 5 greatest or worst groups within the league, however that’s nearly all I’ve been capable of nail down.
On that word … Wow, this sport:
The 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks: Quite a lot of issues, however undoubtedly not boring.
A bonus word: We managed to keep away from the dreaded “workforce that confirmed up on each lists” this yr. Effectively finished, everybody, we cleared the bottom potential bar there may be. On to this week’s rankings …
Street to the Cup
The 5 groups with the perfect possibilities of successful the Stanley Cup.
Nope, nonetheless doesn’t look proper in that uniform.
No Panthers within the high 5 this time, as I keep away from the Atlantic for the second straight week. We’ll determine this out finally, however once you’ve bought time, use it.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (45-24-4, +44 true objectives differential*) — They give the impression of being good, the Devils don’t, and Thursday’s assembly with the Capitals feels lots like a second-round preview.
Additionally: We’ve got a commerce to announce?
4. Vegas Golden Knights (45-20-8, +57) — Six straight wins, all in regulation and by a mixed rating of 28-11, suggests a workforce hitting its stride at precisely the fitting time. Dwelling video games towards the Oilers tomorrow and Jets on Thursday will probably be nice assessments.
3. Washington Capitals (47-17-9, +72) — Three straight losses, together with one to the first-in-conference Jets and one other to the last-in-conference Sabres, isn’t sufficient to have us panicking. These are the long-term rankings, and Caps followers needed to anticipate us to get on board, so we’re not going to bail now after a nasty week. However let’s get it again on observe tomorrow in Boston, OK?
2. Dallas Stars (48-21-4, +63) — I’m nervous in regards to the first-round matchup, I’m nervous in regards to the Miro Heiskanen damage and I’m nervous about having two groups in the identical division within the high spots. However they simply preserve successful, so …
1. Winnipeg Jets (51-19-4, +83) — This positively has to occur, and when it does it’s Murat’s fault:
Connor Hellebuyck’s shutout music is Gangnam Model. @WPGMurat requested Hellebuyck after the sport about that alternative…
“I do know the dance, so possibly at some point I will do the dance on the market.” 😅
🎥: #NHLJets pic.twitter.com/90bR9LldT0
— Connor Hrabchak (@ConnorHrabchak1) March 29, 2025
*Targets differential with out counting shootout selections just like the NHL does for some cause.
Not ranked: Minnesota Wild — Wait, is that this now the playoff spot that’s up for grabs within the West?
It positive seems prefer it. The Wild start the week within the seventh spot, tied with the Blues at 87 factors however with an edge in factors proportion because of a sport in hand. However the swap virtually seems like a formality, with the Blues remaining red-hot whereas the Wild spin their wheels. Saturday’s loss to the Devils was their third of their final 4, basically undoing the good points from a three-game mini-streak the week earlier than. In the meantime, the Blues have received 9 straight, wiping out Minnesota’s eight-point lead in simply two weeks.
Getting handed for seventh place isn’t very best, nevertheless it’s removed from an emergency. It in all probability means enjoying the Jets as a substitute of the Golden Knights in Spherical 1, and that’s not essentially an enormous bounce in diploma of issue. The larger query is whether or not dropping to eighth might be the precursor to dropping even additional. And that’s the place issues get scary for the Wild.
Scary, thoughts you, however not terrifying. They have been nonetheless sitting at 90 p.c odds in yesterday’s projections, and that may go up with the Canucks dropping. They’re six factors up on Vancouver with the identical variety of video games performed, and 7 up on the Flames, who’ve two in hand. They’ll doubtless maintain the regulation wins tiebreaker over the Blues, and would undoubtedly maintain it over the Canucks or Flames. They’re in fine condition.
However fine condition nonetheless feels scary once you have been a lock not that way back. It’s actually solely been in the previous few days that the alarm bells have began ringing, however the stoop has been longer than that. After ending the primary half at a formidable 26-11-4, the Wild have gone simply 15-17-1 since then, a 77-point tempo. Perhaps the larger query than whether or not they could make the playoffs is whether or not they need to hassle, since they don’t appear to be a lot of a risk proper now.
They’ve bought a three-game street journey towards the Devils, Rangers and Islanders this week earlier than returning dwelling to face the Stars and Sharks. Then comes the final street journey of the common season, a two-game swing towards the Flames and Canucks that might be essential. Or it might be meaningless, if the Wild can financial institution sufficient factors this week to place this factor away earlier than scary turns into terrifying.
The underside 5
The 5 groups headed towards useless final and the perfect lottery odds for a high choose that might be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer, or another person.
Pierre had an replace on teaching scorching seats, which will probably be of curiosity to some of the groups that often grace this part.
5. Buffalo Sabres (31-36-6, -24) — Sabres followers, how are we feeling about this current heat streak with nothing left to play for? Good signal for the longer term, or infuriating draft choose sabotage? (For the document, there’s a proper reply right here.)
If you happen to missed it, you should definitely try Matthew’s deep dive into simply how a lot distress a fan base may be anticipated to deal with.
4. Philadelphia Flyers (30-36-9, -49) — They made the large headline this week, firing John Tortorella after a bizarre stretch that included two blowout losses, some unusual postgame feedback and an obvious altercation with Cam York. Kevin has been throughout it, reporting on what precisely occurred behind the scenes, simply what the deal is with York and the contenders for the full-time job (together with three massive names at the moment employed elsewhere).
3. Nashville Predators (27-38-8, -51) — If you happen to missed it, you should definitely learn Pierre’s chat with Barry Trotz on how they begin to dig out of this mess.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (21-44-9, -69) — There’s nothing left to play for, however Hawks followers will get a have a look at 2023 first-rounder Oliver Moore in addition to 2022 first Sam Rinzel down the stretch. Each have signed out of faculty and made their NHL debuts in yesterday’s loss to Utah.
1. San Jose Sharks (20-44-9, -90) — There hasn’t been a lot in the best way of excellent information for the Sharks this yr, however followers who may use some optimism and/or a reminder in regards to the massive image will take pleasure in this podcast.
(Additionally, whereas decoding The Code is at all times dicey, I’m fairly positive any person must combat the Rangers’ workforce bus.)
Not ranked: Montreal Canadiens — The dropping streak is over. Everyone breathe.
Lower than two weeks in the past, the Habs have been the most well liked workforce within the league, successful eight of 11 instantly after the 4 Nations break. That stretch allowed them to push previous the stagnant Jap bubble subject, wanting lots like the one workforce that really needed to be the convention’s eight-seed. After beating the Senators on March 18, the Habs have been alone within the remaining wild-card spot and even appeared to have a possible path to catch Ottawa. However they adopted that sport by dropping 5 straight whereas giving up 25 objectives, together with a high-profile matchup with the Blues earlier within the week that noticed them get stomped. They have been blowing it.
That’s the dangerous information, and nicely, it’s fairly dangerous. However step again, and the image will get brighter. They could be blowing it, sure, however let’s do not forget that the “it” here’s a playoff spot no person actually thought they’d a shot at this yr. The reasonable purpose heading into the season was to play significant video games (with apologies to Tortorella) and keep shut sufficient to the race that they may shock the world. Now it seems like a failure that they haven’t been capable of lock up a spot with 10 video games nonetheless left to play. It’s straightforward to overlook how a lot the expectations have shifted in a comparatively brief period of time.
Nonetheless, beating Panthers workforce on the street was precisely the kind of win this workforce wanted, particularly with a rematch coming tomorrow in Montreal. And it was one other reminder that scripting this workforce off has been a nasty transfer just about all yr lengthy.
Will any of that matter if this workforce finally ends up coughing up a playoff spot that was there for the taking? I feel it ought to. That doesn’t imply it received’t sting, due to course it might. But when the season was about progress, it’s already been an inarguable success, one which’s seen the Habs drive previous groups just like the Sabres and Purple Wings who have been purported to be years forward of them. What extra may an affordable fan need?
A playoff spot, positive. You’ll be able to’t get this shut with out locking in on the prize. And that’s the place the opposite half of the excellent news kicks in: They’re nonetheless on this factor. They get the Panthers once more tomorrow, which is hard, however the remainder of the season-ending schedule in all fairness pleasant. The Bruins, Flyers and Predators are up subsequent, three groups which might be all however flatlining down the stretch. From there it’s Detroit, Ottawa and a Saturday evening showdown with the Leafs, adopted by the lowly Hawks after which a playoff-bound Hurricanes workforce with nothing to play for.
The trail is there. None of these video games are assured, however they’re winnable. And on the very least, they’re rattling positive significant.
(Photograph of Marcus Foligno and Arber Xhekaj: Matt Blewett / Imagn Photographs)