One night after the inaugural 12-team School Soccer Playoff concluded with 4 blowout video games staged on campus, ESPN host Scott Van Pelt and soccer analyst Tim Hasselbeck held a dialog that mirrored many prefer it happening on social media and in barrooms.
The host groups gained by a mean of 19.3 factors, and the closest final result was Notre Dame’s 10-point victory in opposition to Indiana. Two video games — Penn State over SMU (28 factors) and Ohio State over Tennessee (25) — had been non-competitive. Texas’ 14-point win in opposition to ACC champion Clemson was decisive as properly.
“Are these the video games you need?” Van Pelt requested the previous NFL quarterback. “Nobody could be sitting there and going, ‘You need these blowout video games.’”
Hasselbeck responded, “We’re going to have blowouts in these NFL video games, too.”
The loud and contentious debate about whether or not Indiana and SMU deserved CFP at-large bids overshadowed the truth of postseason soccer in each school and the NFL. There are not less than as many blowouts as there are memorable finishes. That was true within the four-team Playoff period, which started in 2014, and as Hasselbeck identified, it’s true within the NFL throughout the identical timeframe.
Because the Playoff system debuted following the 2014 season, there have been 40 CFP video games. The typical margin of victory in these video games is 17.5 factors. Throughout the identical timeframe, there have been 124 NFL playoff video games, together with 10 Tremendous Bowls. The typical margin of victory was 11.1 factors per contest.
One reality has emerged from the CFP and NFL playoff knowledge. Irrespective of the spherical, location, degree or seeding, it’s a coin flip whether or not postseason soccer produces a aggressive recreation or a blowout. The numbers bear that out.
CFP common margin of victory
| Video games | Margin | |
|---|---|---|
|
First spherical |
4 |
19.3 |
|
Quarterfinals |
4 |
14.5 |
|
Semifinals |
22 |
16.5 |
|
Championship |
10 |
20.1 |
|
Complete |
40 |
17.5 |
CFP knowledge
The non-competitive nature of the CFP’s first spherical produced knee-jerk reactions and wild takes largely due to the contributors. However the scoring margin was corresponding to what transpired within the earlier decade. Three of the 4 first-round CFP video games had been determined by not less than 11 factors, and two had victory margins exceeding 20 factors.
Pundits largely scoffed at Indiana, which scored two late touchdowns at Notre Dame earlier than falling 27-17 within the first-round curtain raiser. However of the ten CFP video games this season, it has had the third-closest consequence.
“This staff earned it, the best to be right here,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti mentioned afterward. “I’m unsure we proved that tonight to lots of people.”
Relating to CFP historical past, Indiana’s loss ranked within the higher third so far as aggressive closing scores. Because the CFP’s debut in 2014, there have been extra video games determined by 20-plus factors (17) than by one rating (12). Greater than two-thirds of the video games (27) featured a margin of not less than 11 factors.
In 10 seasons, the CFP’s least aggressive spherical was the championship. Solely three of the ten had been determined by one rating ,and all three came about from 2015-17 between Alabama and both Clemson (twice) or Georgia (as soon as). The Bulldogs’ 65-7 romp over TCU concluding the 2022 season pushed the common margin to twenty.1 factors for the title spherical. Whereas that rating was an outlier, 5 of the ten championship margins exceeded 20 factors.
“Some of these margins that we skilled within the first spherical of the School Soccer Playoff occur on a regular basis,” Fox school soccer analyst Joel Klatt mentioned on his podcast following the primary spherical this 12 months. “It’s been taking place within the School Soccer Playoff four-team mannequin eternally. We’ve had some absolute duds for semifinals and within the championship recreation.
“And hey, by the best way, there’s massive margins within the NFL as properly.”
NFL playoff margin of victory since 2014
| Video games | Margin | |
|---|---|---|
|
Wild card |
54 |
11.9 |
|
Divisional |
40 |
9.9 |
|
Championship |
20 |
12.6 |
|
Tremendous Bowl |
10 |
8.4 |
|
Complete |
124 |
11.1 |
NFL Playoff knowledge
The NFL playoff mannequin largely mirrored school soccer’s postseason outcomes. 5 of the six wild-card video games final weekend had been determined by not less than 12 factors — two eclipsed 20 factors — and the common margin of victory was 15.2 factors per recreation.
There was little variance between the AFC and NFC. Within the 54 wild-card video games, the common margin was 11.9 factors per recreation (12.7 within the AFC, 11.2 within the NFC). Of the video games at non-neutral websites, the divisional spherical featured the closest margin of victory on common with 40 contests determined by 9.9 factors per recreation (10.9 within the AFC, 8.8 within the NFC). The championship spherical victory margin was 12.6 factors per recreation (10.7 within the AFC, 14.4 within the NFC).
The Tremendous Bowl’s latest run of aggressive contests has grow to be an anomaly to the general knowledge. As soon as derided for perpetual disappointment on the large stage — from 1982 by means of 1996 each NFL title recreation besides for 2 featured not less than a 10-point margin — the NFL championship recreation generated the closest outcomes of any playoff spherical (8.4 factors per recreation). Six of the newest 10 Tremendous Bowls have been determined by one rating, and just one featured a margin past 14 factors.
However for the 114 NFL playoff video games at house websites, the share of aggressive NFL contests alongside blowouts was corresponding to the school recreation.
House subject, one-score video games
Maybe probably the most coincidental statistic considerations home-field benefit. In each the AFC and NFC, house groups had been 38-19 (76-38 mixed) in 10-plus seasons, successful precisely two-thirds of the playoff video games from the 2014 postseason onward. House groups gained by a mean of 13.1 factors per recreation, whereas street groups gained by 7.9 factors per contest.
In 10 seasons, top-seeded groups in each the AFC and NFC had been 14-4 within the postseason, combining for a 28-8 general report. Prime seeds gained by a mean of 14.1 factors per recreation, and their losses got here by a mean of 5.8 factors per recreation.
With home-field benefit, seeding impacts the NFL far more than in school soccer, which utilized it for the primary time this 12 months. All 4 groups internet hosting CFP video games gained, however the prime 4 seeds earned a bye and have but to host a recreation on campus. Combining the 4 on-campus contests with the 36 neutral-site CFP video games, the upper seed posted a 21-19 general report however was simply 3-9 in video games determined by one rating. In a single-sided contests that includes victories by multiple rating, the higher-seeded staff gained 64.3 p.c of the time. Prime-ranked groups had been 12-7 in CFP motion, successful by 21.1 factors per recreation and dropping by 13.9 factors per recreation.
Since 2014, the NFL postseason featured virtually an excellent break up between one-score video games and blowouts. Of the 114 playoff video games performed at host websites, 59 (51.8 p.c) had been decided by one rating whereas 53 (46.5 p.c) had been determined by 11 factors or extra.
School soccer has a decrease share of one-score CFP contests with 12 of the 40 (30 p.c) becoming in that class whereas 27 (67.5 p.c) had margins that exceeded 11 factors. Maybe within the clearest distinction between the NFL and school soccer, 42.5 p.c of CFP video games featured a margin of not less than 20 factors whereas solely 16.7 p.c of NFL video games landed in that class.
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Images: David Madison, Perry Knotts, Joseph Weiser / Getty Photographs)