They entered the NFL with nice fanfare and lofty expectations of sooner or later rating among the many finest collections of expertise the NFL had seen at their place. However simply three years later, the 2021 quarterback draft class as an alternative largely seems like one nice large bust.
Whereas NFL groups proceed their assessments of one other extremely touted group of quarterbacks main as much as April’s draft, two of the 5 QBs drafted within the 2021 first spherical (Justin Fields and Mac Jones) had been simply traded for meager compensation. A 3rd (Trey Lance) prepares to enter Yr 2 as a backup for his second crew. And a fourth (Zach Wilson) is going through an unsure future within the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence — the No. 1 decide — is the one 2021 first-round quarterback nonetheless seen as the reply for his drafting crew, the Jacksonville Jaguars. However even Lawrence has but to blossom right into a transformative star. In the meantime, Wilson clearly is in his final days with the New York Jets, who will commerce or reduce him. Lance is a backup for the Cowboys, traded to Dallas after Brock Purdy took over because the chief of San Francisco’s offense. Fields simply received shipped from Chicago to Pittsburgh. And the Patriots basically gave Jones to the Jaguars, who will use him as Lawrence’s backup.
As a substitute of rivaling the 1983 draft class of Corridor of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, the 2021 QB class will as an alternative function a cautionary instance about how generally groups miss with regards to expertise evaluations, projections and developmental plans.
However what went improper? Why are these once-heralded quarterbacks nonetheless caught in developmental phases and/or bordering on bust territory?
An examination of every scenario reveals some frequent themes and solutions.
Trevor Lawrence continues to be with the Jaguars however has had an up-and-down three seasons. (Steve Roberts / USA Right this moment)
Lawrence and the Jaguars
Lawrence has not but approached elite standing, however he’s the closest factor to a franchise quarterback this bunch has yielded. He’s 20-30 as a starter with 58 landing passes, 39 interceptions and a completion proportion of 63.8. His lone successful season (9-8 in 2022) yielded a playoff look (Jacksonville went 1-1 within the postseason) and a Professional Bowl choice after he handed for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and simply eight interceptions. Lawrence and the Jaguars took a slight step backward in 2023, nevertheless, and missed the playoffs after an up-and-down yr that concluded with a 1-5 skid.
Though Lawrence has struggled with consistency, most NFL expertise evaluators nonetheless assume he has promise. They consider his growth was handicapped by a rookie season marked by dysfunction and toxicity below City Meyer, who was fired after a 2-11 begin. The Jaguars changed him with Doug Pederson, who has been good for Lawrence, although a few of the accuracy points the QB exhibited in school in opposition to top-level DBs (see the LSU and Alabama matchups particularly) have adopted him to the NFL. Lawrence additionally performed by way of some accidents in 2023. Well being and one other season in Pederson’s system ought to assist advance his growth, however the Jaguars additionally should discover a high quality No. 1 receiver to exchange Calvin Ridley to additional assist the 24-year-old Lawrence.
Zach Wilson is more likely to be reduce if the Jets can’t work out a commerce for him. (Jasen Vinlove / USA Right this moment)
Wilson and the Jets
Wilson pre-draft exercises and school recreation movie showcased his escapability and an improvisational wizardry that reminded expertise evaluators of Aaron Rodgers. However BYU didn’t face elite expertise in 2020, competing in opposition to colleges from Convention USA, American Athletic, Solar Belt and Mountain West conferences, and the bounce to the NFL proved far steeper for the No. 2 decide than the Jets ever imagined.
Wilson’s three Jets seasons have been a catastrophe. He’s 12-21 as a starter with 23 landing passes, 25 interceptions and a completion proportion of 57.0, plus a number of benchings. Looking back, Wilson by no means ought to have gone as early within the draft as he did, and likewise wanted to sit down behind a veteran starter to be taught and develop regularly each mentally and bodily.
Wilson now faces an unsure future. The Jets are attempting to commerce him after he struggled once more as a starter following Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles harm in Week 1. And whereas the primary week of free company featured a good quantity of quarterback motion, Wilson’s title hasn’t even been linked to groups in rumors of potential offers. If Wilson is reduce, some rival expertise evaluators consider somebody will take a flier on him as a backup/reclamation venture.
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Lance and the 49ers
San Francisco knew Lance could be a venture: The quarterback got here out of North Dakota State with just one full season of expertise (2019) after COVID-19 robbed him of a full junior marketing campaign. But the 49ers deemed Lance worthy of buying and selling up from No. 12 to take him third total.
After a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo, Lance entered 2022 as San Francisco’s starter, thanks largely to the actual fact Garoppolo was nonetheless recovering from offseason shoulder surgical procedure. However in two video games, Lance accomplished simply 15 of 31 passes (48.4 p.c) for 194 yards, no touchdowns and an interception earlier than struggling a fractured ankle and lacking the remainder of the season. The emergence of Purdy later that very same season, coupled with Lance’s continued developmental struggles within the 2023 offseason and coaching camp, induced the 49ers to lose endurance. They traded Lance to Dallas for a fourth-round decide, and Lance spent the whole season because the Cowboys’ third quarterback, by no means taking a snap.
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The 49ers grossly erred of their evaluation of Lance, who ultimately proved to be way more uncooked, much less dynamic as an athlete and never practically as pure a thrower as they believed. That’s to not say that Lance can’t sometime grow to be a top quality NFL quarterback. However the 49ers discovered themselves in a spot of urgency as they attempt to capitalize on the window of alternative they’ve with a championship-ready roster. Workforce officers finally determined they didn’t have time to attend for Lance to develop, and selected Sam Darnold as their No. 2 quarterback, deeming Lance expendable.
Purdy (the final decide of the 2022 draft) wound up so dramatically exceeding expectations, he offset the doubtless crippling Lance miscalculations by San Francisco GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan. In the meantime, the flexibility to be taught from Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott with out the load of expectations and a ticking clock might be one of the best factor for Lance’s growth in the long term.
Fields and the Bears
Fields spent one season below Matt Nagy, who was fired after that 6-11 marketing campaign, then needed to begin over once more below Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Eberflus and Getsy turned Fields (the No. 11 decide) into rather more of a operating quarterback than he ever was at Ohio State, and Fields did show dynamic as a rusher. He concluded the 2022 marketing campaign with 1,143 speeding yards, becoming a member of Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as the one quarterbacks to hurry for 1,000 yards in a season. Nevertheless, Fields was far much less dynamic as a passer, throwing for simply 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions whereas main the NFL in sacks (55) and fumbles (16). The perpetually poor state of Chicago’s offensive line additionally factored into Fields’ struggles.
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Fields made average enhancements in Yr 3, however nonetheless lacked consistency as a passer. Fields seemingly struggles to see the sector effectively, and rival scouts and coaches query whether or not he ever actually was snug in Chicago’s system. Finally, Fields was the product of a poor developmental plan and by no means had the advantage of enjoying for coaches who actually believed in him or had an incredible understanding of easy methods to tailor an offense to his strengths. Eberflus did hearth Getsy following the 2023 season, however the transfer got here too late for Fields, whom the Bears traded to the Steelers on Saturday. Chicago is predicted to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 decide.
A reset might be one of the best factor for Fields. He’ll start his Steelers chapter as backup to Russell Wilson, a former Tremendous Bowl champion who can assist Fields additional perceive NFL defensive ideas and easy methods to use his mobility as a device to increase performs whereas he works to additional refine his passing expertise.
Jones helped Alabama win a nationwide championship however was by no means seen as a dynamic NFL prospect. Enjoying for Nick Saban maybe higher ready him for the professional recreation, however Jones was regarded by many expertise evaluators as having the bottom ceiling of his fellow first-round quarterbacks due to common bodily presents.
Jones, taken fifteenth by New England, had a strong rookie season. He beat out Cam Newton for the beginning job and handed for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, serving to the Patriots go 10-7 and attain the playoffs. However he regressed in Yr 2 after Josh McDaniels left his job as New England’s offensive coordinator to teach the Raiders. Invoice Belichick then tabbed former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former particular groups coordinator Joe Choose to direct the offense relatively than giving Jones a real offensive coordinator. The legendary head coach/roster architect additionally did not sufficiently bolster the Patriots’ ability positions. Regardless of the hiring of Invoice O’Brien as offensive coordinator getting into Jones’ third season, the quarterback by no means managed to regain his effectiveness and was benched on and off whereas going 2-9 as starter.
Jones’ scenario is an ideal instance of crew mismanagement. Regardless of his limitations (common arm power and athleticism), he excelled in school whereas surrounded by superior expertise that helped ease stress on him. He succeeded as an NFL rookie as a result of the extremely inventive McDaniels understood easy methods to finest masks his deficiencies and place him for achievement. Belichick foolishly thought Patricia and Choose may do the identical. With out McDaniels’ offensive wizardry and missing a gifted supporting forged, Jones got here crashing all the way down to earth. Now, he’s in Jacksonville as Lawrence’s backup — a task that most closely fits his ability set.
In 5 weeks, the subsequent crop of star school quarterbacks will enter the NFL with nice fanfare and expectations they may change the fortunes of the groups that can make investments good-looking draft picks to amass them. The Bears and Patriots — house owners of the primary and third picks of the draft, respectively — are anticipated to as soon as once more take swings at discovering a franchise quarterback. The Commanders, Vikings, Raiders and Broncos additionally may draft quarterbacks.
Their success will hinge largely on a capability to keep away from the errors made by the Jets, 49ers, Bears, Patriots and so many different groups earlier than them: Poor expertise projection, overvalued prospects and a failure to offer the quarterbacks with enough teaching or roster assist.
(Prime images of Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones: Christian Petersen, Michael Reaves and Chris Unger / Getty Photos)