What separates the Bills from the Chiefs (it’s not just Patrick Mahomes): Sando’s Pick Six

The ultimate 4 groups within the NFL playoffs are set, and the Buffalo Payments should not amongst them — one other “large proper” inflicting heartache upon a franchise that has gotten a lot proper however retains including emotional scar tissue within the largest moments.

Nobody outdoors Payments Mafia ought to complain concerning the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs dealing with the Baltimore Ravens within the AFC Championship. It’s a fantastic matchup with career-altering legacies at stake. The Detroit Lions advancing to face the San Francisco 49ers on the NFC facet delivers the feel-good story Buffalo hoped to turn out to be after battling again from a 6-6 begin to the season.

The Decide Six column explores what separates Kansas Metropolis from Buffalo (it’s not simply Patrick Mahomes) and explains how the Payments should evolve to keep away from falling additional behind. We’ll put the Ravens’ historic dominance in perspective and reveal what different playoff coaches, notably the Lions’ Dan Campbell, can be taught from Baltimore’s John Harbaugh. We’ll contemplate whether or not Inexperienced Bay’s Matt LaFleur (and Joe Barry by extension) skilled a management breakthrough with implications for the long run, and rather more. The complete menu:

• What Payments should be taught from Chiefs
• Harbaugh’s dominant Ravens present the way in which
• Packers perspective, turning level
• Lions arrive, however are they Tremendous?
• No, your group couldn’t have had Lamar
• Two-minute drill: Stroud’s S2 take a look at

WIDE RIGHT FOR THE BILLS pic.twitter.com/8NBLeGrFGJ

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 22, 2024

1. The Chiefs beat the Payments within the playoffs for the third time prior to now 4 seasons. Two fast takeaways, one for every group.

• What the Payments should do: Defensive accidents give Buffalo a possible out for its incapability to cease the Chiefs when it mattered, nevertheless it’s an out the group can’t afford to take. The problems on that facet of the ball run deeper and would require some type of roster overhaul for the long run.

Thirty-five defensive gamers logged at the least 10 snaps for the Payments and Chiefs on Sunday. Seven of the eight oldest performed for Buffalo: Linval Joseph (35), Von Miller (34), Micah Hyde (33), Jordan Poyer (32), A.J. Klein (32), DaQuan Jones (32) and Leonard Floyd (31).

The Payments maintain getting older on protection whereas the Chiefs have gotten a lot youthful.

The chart under exhibits the common ages on protection for the Chiefs and Payments since 2019, utilizing knowledge from TruMedia. The averages are weighted for enjoying time to supply larger decision.

The Chiefs ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play through the common season with eight defensive starters drafted since 2020. The Payments ranked seventh however are older, smaller and extra injured, giving them much less endurance, which confirmed up Sunday. (Kansas Metropolis has persistently averaged about 5 kilos heavier per defender on a snap-weighted foundation, utilizing unofficial participant weights.)

“Buffalo is an effort-pursue protection that’s going to take pace over measurement each time,” an opposing coach stated of the Payments, “so their greatest participant is (linebacker) Matt Milano, and he’s small (221 kilos) and he acquired damage. On the finish of this recreation, when all people desires them to get a cease and get the ball again for Josh Allen, Kansas Metropolis will get the primary down simply.”

Buffalo and Kansas Metropolis, in contrast to their counterparts within the NFC bracket, are paying high greenback for his or her quarterbacks. That forces them to finances accordingly for the lengthy vary. However with age comes larger salaries. Buffalo has 10 defensive gamers incomes at the least $3.5 million per yr this season. Kansas Metropolis has three.

The Chiefs made a calculated guess within the 2022 offseason, buying and selling Tyreek Hill for picks and investing closely in protection within the draft, and so they made these investments rely. They leapfrogged the Payments within the first spherical for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who was a first-team All-Professional this season. George Karlaftis, taken 9 picks later, has added to a powerful homegrown cross rush.

The Payments have taken some swings on protection within the draft, however with out the identical outcomes. After Kansas Metropolis took McDuffie, Buffalo made a small trade-up for cornerback Kaiir Elam, who has simply eight begins by means of two seasons. The Payments spent a primary and two second-round picks on cross rushers (A.J. Epenesa, Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham) from 2020 to 2021, however none has been as productive as Karlaftis, main them to splurge on a 33-year-old Miller in 2022.

The Payments have many issues to determine this offseason, together with what path the offense is headed following an in-season coordinator change on that facet of the ball. Defensively, they should comply with the Chiefs’ lead in reversing the growing old course of.

Payments followers are heartbroken pic.twitter.com/ZCOSAnbXLN

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 22, 2024

• Mahomes with protection and run recreation: The nice championship quarterbacks of a long time previous often had sturdy defenses on their facet. Terry Bradshaw and Roger Staubach within the Seventies. Joe Montana within the Nineteen Eighties. Troy Aikman and Brett Favre within the Nineties. Tom Brady over the previous twenty years.

Mahomes has been the exception, which separated him from these different greats, however now he has a top-five protection and the potential for a bodily floor recreation with Isiah Pacheco. It’s a fantastic mixture so long as Travis Kelce is wholesome (he’s), Rashee Rice is growing (verify) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling makes the occasional explosive reception (a piece in progress, however he did catch passes for positive factors of 30 and 32 yards towards the Payments).

Will or not it’s sufficient towards Baltimore? Suppose Mahomes is aware of his Chiefs are underdogs for the second consecutive week? Suppose he is aware of Lamar Jackson is the presumptive MVP? His legacy wants no enhancing at this level, however simply assume what’s at stake for his Ravens counterpart: Jackson is 2 victories away from being a two-time MVP (presumptively) and a Tremendous Bowl champ.

2. The Ravens’ historic dominance invitations a more in-depth look. Right here’s the place they stand, and what a number of the different playoff coaches, notably Campbell, can be taught from John Harbaugh.

• Historic level margin: ESPN’s Adam Schefter famous that the Ravens are 6-0 towards opponents who had been at the least three video games above .500 at kickoff, together with playoffs. The Ravens didn’t merely win these video games. They dominated them.

Per TruMedia, this Ravens group owns three of the 17 most lopsided victories in these video games since 2000.

Baltimore’s plus-157 level margin in these six video games equates to 26.2 per recreation, by far the biggest since 2000 for groups dealing with at the least two such opponents in a season.

The desk above exhibits the biggest common level differentials since 2000 towards opponents who entered the sport at the least three-plus video games above .500 (minimal 5 such video games, together with playoffs). The Harbaugh-era Ravens personal two of the highest 4 spots.

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• Harbaugh’s edge: Seven of the 14 playoff head coaches this season known as offensive performs. Three known as defensive performs. The remaining 4 coaches — Baltimore’s Harbaugh, Detroit’s Campbell, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni — match into the CEO coach class. Free of play-calling duties, these “walk-around” coaches roam the sideline, affecting the group how they see match.

Hiring sturdy coordinators is much more essential for coaches who don’t name performs. That is the place Harbaugh stands out, and the place Campbell specifically must be watching carefully.

Baltimore’s present coordinators, Todd Monken on offense and Mike Macdonald on protection, have each fielded top-10 items by EPA per play this season (No. 9 for Monken, No. 3 for Macdonald). Earlier coordinators Greg Roman and Wink Martindale coordinated top-five items.

Earlier than that, Harbaugh employed Marty Mornhinweg, Marc Trestman, Gary Kubiak, Jim Caldwell and Cam Cameron on the offensive facet. On protection, Harbaugh’s pre-Martindale hires included Dean Pees and Chuck Pagano.

May any coach hope to rent higher coordinators over a 15-year interval?

That is the place the opposite playoff CEO coaches should shut floor.

The Eagles’ Sirianni — who did name performs initially earlier than handing duties to Shane Steichen midway by means of his first season — needed to substitute each coordinators after reaching the Tremendous Bowl final season. It’s trying like he’ll be doing the identical this offseason, with intense stress to get these hires proper.

The Steelers’ Tomlin has struggled to search out the appropriate offensive coordinator. It’s a number one cause Pittsburgh hasn’t received a playoff recreation prior to now seven seasons (2,563 days and counting for pissed off Steelers followers). Tomlin has pledged to look outdoors the constructing after selling from inside beforehand.

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The Lions’ Campbell hit a house run changing his first offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, with Ben Johnson. With Johnson more likely to land a head-coaching job, the stress might be on Campbell to discover a appropriate substitute. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn additionally could possibly be leaving, as he’s thought-about a number one candidate in Tennessee.

Campbell has raised the bar in Detroit, however he hasn’t carried out it alone. Future coordinator hires might be particularly important for him as a coach who hasn’t known as performs since 2021 and appears unlikely to make that his focus sooner or later.

• Mike Macdonald’s edge: Groups trying to find the following differentiating head coach have seen Macdonald’s scheme, which has produced elite outcomes with out elite personnel. His Ravens led the NFL in sacks this season whereas rating third in EPA per play.

The desk under suggests offensive coordinators who’ve higher familiarity with Macdonald’s methods have an edge.

The six greatest offensive EPA per play video games towards Macdonald’s protection featured offensive callers who would possibly possess inside information. Inside the AFC North, Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski seem excessive on the listing. Taylor’s mentor, Rams coach Sean McVay, tops the listing. Even Matt Canada, fired by the Steelers, ranks fifth, whereas Arizona’s Drew Petzing, who confronted Macdonald as a member of Stefanski’s Cleveland workers in 2022, is subsequent.

3. Right here’s what I take into consideration the Packers after they blew a late lead towards the 49ers. Maybe a dose of accountability might assist the protection (and past).

• QB coming into fifth yr: Groups reaching the playoffs with inexperienced quarterbacks and younger rosters usually really feel as if their futures might be full of championship alternatives. That could possibly be the case for Inexperienced Bay, however there’s one massive distinction.

Because the rookie wage scale took impact in 2011, guidelines have prevented groups from re-signing gamers with fewer than three seasons of expertise. This created benefits for groups in a position to get upper-tier quarterback manufacturing from quarterbacks with scale-controlled salaries.

Seven of 24 Tremendous Bowl groups within the rookie wage scale period acquired there with quarterbacks on rookie contracts. Two others reached convention championship video games with high-performing quarterbacks on rookie offers.

The Packers’ Jordan Love might be coming into his second season because the group’s starter, however 2024 might be his fifth season within the league. The Packers, who fielded the NFL’s youngest group this season, might be signing their quarterback to an costly extension quickly, skipping the section that helped different groups maximize sources on their strategy to Tremendous Bowls.

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A younger group with a very good quarterback on a rookie contract enjoys higher flexibility than a younger group with a very good quarterback on an costly second contract. Inexperienced Bay is a bit of farther down the highway than it appears.

• Finite possibilities: The Packers led San Francisco 21-17 coming into the fourth quarter, then misplaced 24-21. It was the fourth time in 5 seasons beneath Matt LaFleur that Inexperienced Bay led by means of three quarters of the divisional spherical, placing LaFleur in elite firm. However with two defeats in these 4 video games, there might be main regrets if these alternatives fail to materialize as a lot sooner or later.

Invoice Belichick and Andy Reid have led by means of three quarters of the divisional spherical a mixed 17 occasions since realignment in 2002, per TruMedia. They’re 17-0 in these video games. LaFleur and his Inexperienced Bay predecessor, Mike McCarthy, rank tied for third with 4 apiece. Many different coaches have coached a whole bunch of regular-season video games with out reaching that time greater than as soon as, if in any respect.

The desk above exhibits coaches with at the least two divisional-round leads coming into the fourth quarter since realignment. Logos present the coaches’ groups for his or her most up-to-date qualifying video games.

The Packers’ 5-4 file in these video games — 3-1 with McCarthy and 2-2 with LaFleur — falls far in need of the 62-7 (.899) mark for the remainder of the league. It provides the Packers 7.5 % of the victories and 36.4 % of the defeats.

• Potential turning level for LaFleur, Barry: LaFleur hinted after the sport that the Packers probably would retain Joe Barry, their defensive coordinator.

The group has performed higher protection statistically since LaFleur suspended No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander for becoming a member of the pregame coin toss at Carolina with out being licensed to take action. The infraction appeared minor, however the penalties had been vital. May they assist usher in a brand new period of accountability?

The Packers had been Aaron Rodgers’ group when LaFleur changed McCarthy in 2019. There was zero probability LaFleur, with one season of coordinating expertise on his resume, was going to take full management of that group.

“McCarthy would name some play, after which Rodgers would change it to no matter he needed,” a veteran coach watching the Packers from afar stated. “Aaron did what he needed, after which all the opposite guys who noticed him as a pacesetter felt like, ‘OK, I’m going to do my very own factor as effectively.’ Once they suspended the nook, they had been saying, ‘Pay attention, guys, you don’t simply do what you need.’ It’s clear that LaFleur has taken management of that group.”

Whether or not that makes Barry a greater coordinator for the long run can’t be identified, but when the transfer to bench Alexander signaled a shift towards higher team-wide accountability, that’s good for the Packers.

4. The Lions are headed to the NFC Championship Sport. What say you, Cowboys and Commanders?

It’s time to replace the NFC Championship Sport appearances scorecard after the Lions beat Tampa Bay to achieve the convention title recreation for the primary time for the reason that 1991 season.

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This improvement led instantly to long-suffering Lions followers stating that their group has now reached the NFC title recreation extra not too long ago than America’s self-appointed group, the Cowboys. It’s true. Dallas final superior that far following the 1995 season, successful the Tremendous Bowl.

With Detroit advancing, the Cowboys and Washington Commanders are the one NFC groups with out an look in a convention championship since 1996, a span of 27 seasons.

The Lions stand one victory away from reaching the Tremendous Bowl for the primary time. The Cowboys, for all their latest playoff futility, nonetheless personal eight Tremendous Bowl appearances, most amongst NFC groups. (Word: The NFC didn’t exist till the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Nevertheless, the numbers right here have been up to date to incorporate the Packers’ appearances after the 1966 and ‘67 seasons and the Vikings’ look after the 1969 season.)

If the Lions attain the Tremendous Bowl this season, they’ll achieve this with the NFL’s lowest-ranked protection by EPA per play (twenty fourth) amongst Tremendous Bowl groups over the previous 5 seasons.

The chart under compares the ultimate 4 groups this season — Kansas Metropolis, Baltimore, Detroit and San Francisco — to the previous 10 Tremendous Bowl groups by way of EPA per play rankings on offense and protection.

Tremendous Bowl winners seem on the high. The ultimate 4 groups this season seem on the backside.

5. Can we please kill one of many extra disingenuous narratives on the market? Your group was not going to get Lamar Jackson, OK?

One yr in the past, the Ravens had been in a tough spot with their quarterback. Jackson was injured and appeared emotionally estranged from the group as a contract stalemate drew on.

Now that the connection is complete and Baltimore is making a playoff push, a typical chorus holds that groups with lesser quarterbacks dedicated malpractice by failing to pursue Jackson through the months final offseason when the franchise tag offered a window.

The concept that groups most well-liked Desmond Ridder or Sam Howell to Jackson is laughable. The query is whether or not groups with these kinds of quarterbacks ought to have tried to barter with Jackson.

Hey, why not, proper? Nicely …

Touchdown a franchise-tagged quarterback from one other group would require coming into into a extremely, actually unhealthy deal that no sensible group would ever enter into, after which surrendering two first-round picks on high of the actually, actually unhealthy contract. No one within the league thought that might have been a good suggestion on the time. To show round now and counsel Jackson was there for the taking feels disingenuous.

“Individuals continuously saying these different groups had little interest in Lamar Jackson will not be true,” a longtime NFL exec stated. “Jackson made it clear he needed the Deshaun Watson contract. Groups don’t simply get to say, ‘We would like the participant.’ He comes with a package deal.”

On this case, the package deal would have included signing Jackson to a deal so excessive that Baltimore wouldn’t have matched, after which sending two first-round picks to the Ravens as compensation. Jackson’s manufacturing had been in decline, he had struggled to complete seasons wholesome and he didn’t even have an agent for groups to contact. Even when these complicating components had not existed, there was no sensible deal to get carried out.

“Everyone was within the participant,” the exec stated. “They weren’t within the package deal. As a result of he was so vociferous about getting that assured deal, these franchises made it clear, there’s nothing to speak about. It wasn’t till Baltimore satisfied him to take the non-guaranteed contract that the Ravens acquired a deal carried out.”

6. Two-minute drill: Revisionist historical past of C.J. Stroud and the S2 Cognition take a look at?

Stroud handed nearly each take a look at throughout an excellent rookie season with the Texans. He bombed the S2 Cognition take a look at earlier than the 2023 NFL Scouting Mix, calling into query whether or not the take a look at, which seeks to measure how effectively gamers course of what is occurring round them, ought to carry credibility sooner or later.

Extra not too long ago, S2 take a look at directors instructed the Wall Avenue Journal that the outcomes for Stroud weren’t legitimate. Based mostly on what I do know, I consider the take a look at is usually a useful device for groups, and that there’s cause to consider the outcomes for Stroud weren’t legitimate.

Dangle on, am I getting this proper?

CJ Stroud “performs poorly” on S2 Check earlier than the draft and creators of the take a look at say “we’ve by no means had somebody grade low and play effectively.”

Now, CJ dominates and unexpectedly the identical individuals say his outcomes may need been incorrect?

C’mon man…

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) January 20, 2024

I’m not a draft analyst. I don’t press sources across the league for predraft data on prospects. However I did hear from a high-ranking NFL group govt on the 2023 mix that one of many quarterbacks had bombed this explicit take a look at. The chief stated on the time he felt “it was an invalid take a look at” as a result of the quarterback appeared “disinterested” when taking it, for no matter cause.

On the time, I wrote in my notes that the ends in query didn’t pertain to a number of quarterbacks, together with Stroud. However after I circled again with the chief through the 2023 season, he stated the take a look at ends in query had certainly belonged to Stroud.

How the S2 Cognition workers administered the take a look at, dealt with its outcomes or dealt with the following fallout is a separate problem. The truth that an NFL group exec used the phrase “invalid” to explain the take a look at outcomes for a high quarterback, later revealed to be Stroud, practically one yr in the past suggests one thing wasn’t proper concerning the outcomes.

Stroud later stated he wasn’t a lot of a take a look at taker.

Good groups ought to know tips on how to synthesize such data. They need to by no means rely disproportionately on S2 Cognition outcomes any greater than they need to rely disproportionately on another measure.

It’s unlucky when leaked outcomes create false impressions about gamers. On this case, groups ought to have identified the take a look at outcomes for Stroud didn’t match what they noticed from him on the sector. That could possibly be why Stroud didn’t final past the second decide.

• One-game legacies: My colleague, Ted Nguyen, caught my consideration Sunday night time when he dismissed former participant Emmanuel Acho’s take concerning Josh Allen extra carefully resembling Philip Rivers than Peyton Manning (keep in mind when Manning struggled to win playoff video games and other people questioned whether or not he had what it took?).

We don’t want to alter the narrative on QBs with each win and loss. Allen performed nice. https://t.co/Ifj7tg6Ke5

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 22, 2024

Playoff outcomes do carry outsized worth and are a part of the analysis, however these divisional-round video games additionally lend themselves to cherry-picking.

The 49ers’ Brock Purdy struggled within the rain with out injured receiver Deebo Samuel and seemed like a backup for stretches towards Inexperienced Bay. He then linked on a few excellent throws through the game-winning drive. Is he horrible? Is he Joe Montana? How about neither?

The Ravens’ Jackson has lengthy confronted criticism about his consistency as a pure passer. If we needed to amplify these questions, we might dwell on moments late within the first half towards Houston when Jackson missed a third-down throw to kill one drive and took a sack on first down in a two-minute state of affairs. However Jackson additionally rushed for 100 yards, including 7.8 EPA on the bottom, which was the third-highest single-game complete for his profession. He carried Baltimore’s offense when his group wanted him probably the most.

Sure, Allen fumbled late within the Payments’ defeat (Buffalo recovered) and threw incomplete deep when his receiver was flashing open for a achieve that might have moved the group into higher place for the tying subject aim strive. That goes on his playoff ledger. However he additionally bailed out Buffalo with a laser beam of a landing cross on third-and-goal from the 13 simply when it appeared the Payments had been melting down.

In 5 playoff begins over the previous 4 seasons, Allen has 21 landing passes with 4 interceptions and a 104.2 ranking (0.13 EPA per cross play).

Allen might be extra like an early profession Manning than individuals with out lengthy recollections notice, as each carried their groups but in addition suffered too many turnovers. Manning didn’t even win a playoff recreation till his sixth season (Allen is in his sixth season now and owns 5 postseason wins).

Manning’s Indianapolis Colts misplaced twice within the playoffs to Tom Brady’s Patriots earlier than lastly beating them within the 2006 postseason on their strategy to the Tremendous Bowl. Mahomes is enjoying the position of Brady in these playoff video games towards Allen.

• Picks replace: I went 2-2 in picks made on the Soccer GM podcast this week, taking the underdog and the factors in each recreation. I lean towards taking the Chiefs and the three factors at Baltimore, just because Mahomes and factors seem to be a fantastic mixture (it labored for me Sunday). I additionally lean in direction of San Francisco protecting the seven-point unfold towards Detroit, however we received’t make picks till recording our subsequent present Friday.

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(Photograph of Josh Allen: Al Bello / Getty Pictures)