What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff hunt’? One-bid ACC? Assume nothing

The 12-team School Soccer Playoff has made it difficult to pinpoint simply how massive the autumn’s largest video games are. For many years, the results of a regular-season recreation might really feel definitive. Even when it wasn’t fairly so, it could possibly be fairly darn shut.

That’s not the case anymore.

After the variety of unbeaten groups shrunk to 4 in Week 11, we’ve discovered that utilizing the phrase “In the event that they win out” is fraught with peril and the SEC appears to be headed for an enormous logjam.

Magnificent 7

After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a bonkers recreation that included 5 touchdowns within the fourth quarter — 4 within the closing 3:18 — Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his group nonetheless alive within the Playoff race.

Coach Drinkwitz says tonight’s win was massive as a result of it retains Mizzou within the playoff hunt pic.twitter.com/AG0nL3bW6K

— Pointless Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 10, 2024

“That’s proper. I mentioned it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz mentioned.

Actually?

Properly, put it this fashion: Mizzou is now one in every of seven SEC groups that would end the common season 10-2, together with — in alphabetical order — Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. These six all landed within the CFP choice committee’s high 16 final week.

Solely two SEC video games are remaining matching any of these seven groups. Subsequent week, Georgia tries to bounce again from its second lack of the season in opposition to Tennessee in Athens. On Thanksgiving weekend, Texas goes to Texas A&M.

Georgia had an opportunity to vote Ole Miss off the island, however Rebels coach Lane Kiffin lastly broke by means of with a top-five victory to stay very a lot alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the nationwide championship, are at risk of lacking out on a 12-team bracket.

Unthinkable.

The Crimson Tide rolled previous LSU 42-13 to unofficially, however undeniably, remove the Tigers from Playoff competition. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M management their paths to the SEC title recreation, which is best than the choice, however management seems like an phantasm this season.

As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, no one ought to apologize for going 7-2, particularly a program that doesn’t repeatedly churn out double-digit-victory seasons. The truth is Missouri, which was ranked twenty fifth by the choice committee final week, clearly sits seventh within the SEC’s Playoff pecking order.

The Athletic’s projections mannequin offers Missouri a 0.3 % probability of creating the Playoff. So, you’re saying there’s an opportunity?

Hurricane warning

No. 4 Miami had been tempting destiny and hoping for quarterback Cam Ward to drag it out of precarious conditions for many of the final month and a half. 4 occasions within the earlier 5 video games, the Hurricanes fell behind solely to have Ward and their potent offense bail them out and maintain them unbeaten.

Ward ran out of second-half magic in opposition to Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, thirteenth within the committee’s preliminary rankings, had a productive off week. The Mustangs are actually alone atop the ACC standings.

Miami’s loss was the tenth this season by an AP top-10 group in opposition to an unranked group. Meaning the rankings on the time of the video games, which implies Georgia Tech has two of these victories after beginning the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Eire. Sure, generally early-season upsets aren’t what they look like.

Nonetheless, that checklist contains Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, after all, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It nearly added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night time.

It has been a enjoyable season.

Due to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami continues to be in command of its ACC championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes conclude the season with video games in opposition to Syracuse and Boston School — each very winnable. Then once more, so was Georgia Tech.

“We’ve a bye week with the whole lot in entrance of us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal mentioned.

The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for practically 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory had been primarily the distinction in a 28-23 loss.

The larger difficulty for Miami is that the prospect of moving into the Playoff simply by reaching the ACC Championship Sport simply went down. Take a look at all these SEC groups doubtlessly sitting there with two losses. Then take a peek on the Large Ten, the place the percentages proceed to rise that its 4 CFP contenders (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) all will win at the very least 10 regular-season video games.

If the Hurricanes attain the ACC title recreation, they’re probably to take action having overwhelmed just one ranked group (Louisville).

That measurement is usually a little deceiving and random. Is there that a lot distinction between group No. 25 and group No. 30? Not likely.

Nonetheless, the ACC moved nearer to being a one-bid league Saturday.

GO DEEPER

School Soccer Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana as much as 92 % probability to make subject

2024 BYU = 2022 TCU

BYU’s unbeaten season gave the impression to be over when quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked close to his aim line on a fourth down with lower than two minutes left within the fourth quarter. The Cougars have dodged a couple of losses on the best way 9-0, however no escape was larger than Saturday night time’s in opposition to rival Utah.

A holding penalty on the Utes worn out what probably would have been a decisive sack, and the Cougars took their second probability and drove to arrange a game-winning subject aim within the waning seconds. The 11-point halftime deficit was the biggest BYU has overcome to win since 2002 in opposition to Utah State.

“We gained this recreation. Another person stole it from us,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan instructed reporters. “This was not honest to our group. I’m disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight.”

Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan Put up Sport pic.twitter.com/eKjy4PpedU

— Elijah Grayson Murray (@elijahgmurray) November 10, 2024

OK, then.

The Cougars stay alone in first within the Large 12, a mere recreation forward of Colorado, which had its personal come-from-behind victory on Saturday night time.

Indiana already has locked up this season’s finest turnaround, the perennial Large Ten doormat now in competition for a convention title after going 3-9 final season. BYU shouldn’t be fairly that, however the Cougars went 5-7 of their first season within the Large 12 final 12 months and had been picked to complete close to the underside of the convention once more.

Sound acquainted?

TCU took an analogous path to the Playoff in 2022. These Cougars are not any Hypnotoads, however they’re most positively a vibes-based operation.

Large 12 spoiler

Kansas has had probably the most disappointing years within the nation, beginning the season ranked and dropping its first 5 FBS video games, none by greater than 11 factors.

The Jayhawks now have gained two of three, with solely a two-point loss to Kansas State stopping a three-game profitable streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and firm just about eradicated Iowa State from the CFP race with a 45-36 victory Saturday.

Kansas can proceed to play spoiler for the following two weeks. The Jayhawks go to BYU subsequent week and host Colorado after that.

Protecting BYU out of the Large 12 Championship Sport at this level goes to take at the very least two losses by the Cougars. Avoiding that isn’t going to be as straightforward because it may need appeared a couple of weeks in the past.

BYU goes to Arizona State in two weeks. Nearly as good because the turnaround in Provo has been, Solar Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s has been even higher in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) can be nonetheless in competition for a spot within the Large 12 title recreation.

And BYU closes its common season at residence in opposition to Houston, which has gained three of its final 4.

Examined Hoosiers

It took 10 video games, however lastly any person made Indiana work deep into the fourth quarter.

Indiana is 10-0 for the primary time after beating defending nationwide champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the Hoosiers’ worst offensive recreation of the season.

“I’m glad we gained,” coach Curt Cignetti mentioned. “I don’t like the best way we performed.”

10 video games, 10 wins. pic.twitter.com/OU9Bi4I8Xi

— Indiana Soccer (@IndianaFootball) November 10, 2024

Contemplating Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time in opposition to Michigan, I’m fairly assured that sentence by no means had been uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.

Indiana will get per week off earlier than enjoying at Ohio State. It could appear that the Hoosiers have constructed up sufficient credit score to maintain a loss to the Buckeyes and get into the Playoff, however the energy of schedule metric continues to be hanging round Indiana like an anchor. The Wolverines are actually 5-5.

(Photograph: Ed Zurga / Getty Pictures)