Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart is that this NFL Draft cycle’s most divisive quarterback. Some evaluators suppose he’s a mid-round choose, whereas ESPN’s Mel Kiper mocked Dart going No. 9. Kiper might have been making an attempt to be controversial for engagement, however Dart does have an intriguing skillset and one can see how an evaluator may very well be drawn to him.
He’s not tall (6-foot-2), however he’s constructed effectively (225 kilos). He has good arm expertise and is a reputable big-play risk as a runner. Nonetheless, he performed in a simplistic unfold offense and can want time to regulate to an NFL offense. In a weaker quarterback class, can Dart’s theoretical ceiling, alongside along with his regular manufacturing, be sufficient to push him into the primary two rounds of the draft?
The skillset
With regards to pure throwing potential, Dart has each kind of throw in his bag. He doesn’t have a rocket arm, however he has a reside one, and he can full outbreakers and transfer the ball downfield with ease.
He throws outbreaking routes with timing, accuracy and zip. These are outlined throws on which he has a excessive diploma of confidence earlier than the snap that the receiver shall be open. He doesn’t hesitate to make these throws if he sees off protection and house outdoors.
Dart doesn’t simply have a fastball. Considered one of his greatest traits is his potential to throw off-speed and layer passes over defenders. The Mississippi offense is free flowing and routes aren’t exact. Receivers are on the lookout for house and adjusting their angles. Dart does a great job of seeing what his receivers see and main them into open areas. Although he’ll put contact on passes in the course of the sector, he not often leads his receivers into huge hits.
Dart’s deep accuracy is excellent. Not elite, however his deep passes are pristine when he’s on. He can hit his receivers completely in stride down the sector on deep posts and go-balls however can have stretches the place he sprays the ball.
Dart has a pure potential as a creator. Typically, you need to see him look downfield extra when he breaks the pocket (9.5 % scramble price) or will get pressured, however he was an efficient scrambler (6.87 yards per scramble) so it’s comprehensible. The clip above was considered one of his greatest throws of the season. In opposition to Duke, he was flushed out of the pocket, stored his eyes downfield, and threw an ideal deep bomb, hitting his receiver in stride.
On third-and-14, in opposition to Oklahoma, Dart broke the pocket to his proper. Initially, Dart’s receiver was working a shallow throughout the sector. As Dart broke the pocket, he threw the ball upfield as a substitute of horizontally to steer his receiver to open house. He and his receiver have been on the identical web page and so they transformed. This go exhibits creativity and instincts when enjoying outdoors of construction. He received’t be capable of scramble as a lot within the NFL, so he’ll need to look downfield extra.
Dart has good measurement and vertical pace. Groups should gameplan for his potential to scramble, and he’ll be capable of execute designed quarterback runs within the league. He’s twitchy within the pocket and has the energy to tear away from go rushers. He routinely makes the primary defender miss within the pocket. He’s a linear runner within the open discipline however has the pace to drag away from defenders.
Pocket toughness is a trait that you just both have otherwise you don’t. Hardly ever do quarterbacks develop into extra keen to face within the pocket and take hits. Dart may be very keen to maintain his eyes downfield and rotate into throws regardless of figuring out he’ll take successful. He can also generate energy and keep accuracy in muddy pockets and not using a huge runway in entrance of him.
The offense
Total, Dart’s skillset gives quite a bit you can’t train. His ceiling relative to different quarterbacks on this class may be very excessive. Nonetheless, his offense at Ole Miss doesn’t translate to the NFL. It is going to take time for him to be taught a professional system, footwork and even take a snap from below middle. As we’ve seen, the NFL not often exhibits the required endurance for lengthy durations of improvement.
There was a free-flow really feel to the Ole Miss offense. Receivers weren’t working exact timing routes, so Dart doesn’t have a lot expertise with timing throws and syncing his toes along with his progressions. Head coach Lane Kiffin is a wonderful play caller and infrequently received Dart’s first learn open. There weren’t many examples of Dart getting by a number of reads on a play however that doesn’t imply he can’t ultimately discover ways to do it.
This third-and-14 play in opposition to Arkansas was one of many uncommon examples of him getting by a number of reads. Dart initially appeared to his left. His slot receiver was indecisive and ran a sloppy route, displaying his receivers have been both undisciplined or given a number of freedom to search out open house. Dart ultimately progressed to his proper outdoors receiver and led his goal to open house. You’ll be able to see within the clip that Dart hops from learn to learn fairly than hitch from learn to learn. Cleansing up his footwork goes to take a while.
One of many few full-field development ideas that Ole Miss has of their offense is an air raid staple: Y-Cross. On Y-cross, Dart must be studying the fade and shoot route (backside of the display screen) concurrently. The nook to that facet was enjoying flat-footed and had his eyes on the shoot route. Ideally, Dart would have seen the nook’s physique language and thrown the fade route. Nobody was deep with the nook enjoying the shoot route. As a substitute, Dart progressed to his third learn however made a pleasant throw in the course of the sector.
Typically it appears like Dart determines his throws pre-snap as a result of he typically goes to the identical receiver on sure ideas. For instance, in opposition to Florida, early within the recreation, he hit his receiver on a deep submit on a Mills idea (deep submit with a dig route). Kiffin referred to as the identical play later within the recreation. This time, Florida’s defensive backs dropped deep and simply picked off the go.
Dart needs to be higher in opposition to the blitz. He was sacked 9.6 % of the time when blitzed (10 sacks total). His numbers in opposition to the blitz are inflated by run/go choices (RPOs) counting as blitzes as a result of defenders are transferring towards the road of scrimmage to play the run. On third-and-long (7+ yards), that are true dropback conditions, his EPA per dropback in opposition to the blitz is 0.05.
Right here, the Duke protection confirmed a canopy 0 blitz look with a number of defenders on the line of scrimmage. With extra potential go rushers than blockers, ideally, Dart ought to abort the play faux and shortly discover a “sizzling” receiver. However he nonetheless carried out the play faux which made it straightforward for an unblocked defender to get to him. His slot receiver to his proper discovered house and shortly received his eyes again to Dart however the quarterback didn’t see him.
On this clip, the protection once more confirmed a heavy-pressure look. Ideally, Dart ought to search for a fast outlet and hope his receiver can break a deal with in house on third-and-long. He had a three-on-three scenario to his left (backside of the display screen) however after the snap, he appeared to the only receiver facet however that receiver was double lined. Dart broke the pocket and located a receiver on the scramble drill, however this isn’t a dependable reply in opposition to heavy-pressure appears.
Although Dart has an intriguing ability set with a excessive ceiling, a large hole should be bridged between the offense he operated at Ole Miss and what he’ll be requested to do within the league. Ideally, Dart will get drafted to a workforce the place he can sit, be taught a playbook and clear up his footwork with out reside motion. Nonetheless, quarterbacks drafted within the first spherical are not often afforded redshirt years. With Dart’s developmental hole, getting drafted within the second or third spherical to a workforce with a longtime starter can be one of the best scenario. After Cam Ward, Dart may have the very best ceiling of any quarterback within the draft, and he’s solely 21 years outdated.
(Picture: Todd Kirkland / Getty Photographs)