We don’t have many guidelines of thumb —what with solely 4 complete thumbs between us — for selecting an NCAA Event bracket. However there’s one we imagine in wholeheartedly: Don’t overthink it.
To that finish, there’s one thing easy to bear in mind (but once more) when selecting your Last 4 and nationwide champion. After Connecticut gained all of it final 12 months, 18 of the final 21 champs ranked among the many high six at KenPom.com earlier than the NCAA Event. (Inform us once more why Ken Pomeroy isn’t simply deciding on the sphere yearly?) So, yeah, the highest six could be a helpful place to begin in case you had been, say, compiling an inventory of groups that would moderately win this 12 months’s nationwide title. In order that’s the place we began.
However what about 2003 champion Syracuse, which ranked twentieth in KenPom earlier than the match? Or 2011 and 2014 UConn, which ranked fifteenth and twenty fifth earlier than the dance? There are exceptions to each rule, in fact, so our checklist wanted to make room for potential outliers. We didn’t overthink these both. SEC and ACC regular-season champ, Huge Ten match champ and a few blue bloods stocked with NBA expertise.
That is the checklist. We’d be shocked in case your 2024 NCAA champion isn’t on it.
The KenPom high six
Connecticut (31-3)
Why they’ll win all of it: Do we have to elaborate right here? The defending champs merely steamrolled by way of the season with the No. 1 offense, No. 11 protection and hardly any hiccups alongside the way in which. You want to win six straight on this match to take the title, and UConn has gained seven in a row, 14 in a row and 7 extra in a row rolling into this occasion. Your eyeballs will inform you Dan Hurley’s workforce has a bit bit (or rather a lot) of every thing, however simply to verify: Pull up the Huskies’ KenPom profile and discover one thing they’re unhealthy at. Good luck. This group is top-10 in efficient field-goal share offense and protection, rebound margin, help share, block share, and on and on. They shoot it nice from deep — Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban and Tristen Newton have all made 60-plus 3s — and defend the perimeter and have 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan defending the rim. They’ve poised faculty vets and high-end professional prospects in Clingan and five-star freshman Stephon Fortress. When you had been cooking up a roster able to going back-to-back, this could be the recipe.
The considerations: Meals poisoning? OK, look, this workforce isn’t good, however there aren’t obtrusive points both. There’s at all times the chance of an ice-cold taking pictures evening, and the Huskies hit a mixed 7 of 37 3s in losses to Creighton and Seton Corridor. There’s at all times the chance of one other workforce taking pictures the lights out, and the 2 finest 3-point taking pictures video games towards UConn this season (Kansas and Creighton) had been each losses. However Hurley and firm mitigate these dangers in addition to anybody in America. They’ve made not less than seven 3s in 26 of 34 video games. They’ve solely allowed double-digit made 3s 4 occasions all 12 months. That leaves potential harm — the Huskies weathered stretches with out Clingan and Fortress — and a surprisingly troublesome East Area for the No. 1 general seed as the most important potential potholes. Two of final 12 months’s Last 4 groups, FAU and San Diego State, might be second-round and Candy 16 matchups. Then the SEC, Huge Ten and Huge 12 match champions, Auburn, Illinois and Iowa State, lurk within the backside half of that area. That gauntlet, greater than any apparent wart, is the actual risk to a repeat. — Kyle Tucker
GO DEEPER
Each day NCAA bracket picks: Our knowledgeable predictions for each recreation on Thursday in match
Houston (30-4)
Why they’ll win all of it: Probably the most full protection in faculty basketball. (“bUt tHeY jUsT gOt bLoWn oUt!” Sure, and? Each No. 1 seed this 12 months has a double-digit loss.) We all know Houston’s 28-point loss to Iowa State within the Huge 12 championship wasn’t an awesome look, however it doesn’t erase the truth that the Cougars had the No. 1 protection nearly the whole season till Iowa State handed them over the weekend. The visible’s gonna be simpler — and compact — than something we are able to write, particularly with KenPom’s handy-dandy color-coded rankings:
Kelvin Sampson’s final 4 groups, courting again to his 2021 Last 4 squad, have all completed high 10 in adjusted defensive effectivity — however this group is the stingiest of the bunch, not less than statistically talking. The Cougars enable the fewest factors and made baskets within the nation. However on high of that suffocating protection, Houston checks the remainder of the packing containers, too. Elite coach? Sampson simply gained the USBWA’s Henry Iba Award (for coach of the 12 months). Elite lead guard? Jamal Shead — who’s averaging 14 factors, 7.3 assists, 4.2 rebounds, and a pair of.6 steals the final 10 video games — was named a first-team All-American on Tuesday, and doubtless shall be defensive participant of the 12 months, too. Age and match expertise? The Cougars begin three seniors and a junior, and main scorer LJ Cryer was a freshman on Baylor’s 2021 title workforce. And, lastly, a manageable draw? Completely; who is aware of how wholesome Tyler Kolek shall be for No. 2 seed Marquette, No. 3 seed Kentucky is allergic to protection, and No. 4 seed Duke has misplaced two straight whereas getting bullied every recreation. The trail is there.
The considerations: We gonna speak about that 28-point loss to Iowa State, or nah? That wasn’t only a beatdown; it was the worst lack of Sampson’s Houston tenure. It was additionally, sadly, proof of why the Cougs is perhaps essentially the most weak No. 1 seed. Houston’s depth has been totally depleted — three gamers, most just lately freshman huge JoJo Tugler, have suffered season-ending accidents — and now beginning ahead J’Wan Roberts is banged up, too. Roberts suffered a shin harm within the Huge 12 semifinals, and he solely managed 13 minutes vs. the Cyclones earlier than exiting. There’s no understating how large an harm that’s for an already injury-riddled workforce. Houston thrives on offensive rebounding (thirteenth nationally) and second-chance factors, and Roberts is essential in each respects. If the 6-foot-7 senior — who leads the workforce in rebounding, is second in blocks, and third in steals — can’t go, or even when he’s simply not his regular self, it’s arduous to check Houston having sufficient measurement or our bodies to outlive the area. — Brendan Marks
Purdue (29-4)
Why they’ll win all of it: Along with a top-five offense and top-25 protection, which generally places you in a really small group of contenders, it helps to have one thing no person else in faculty basketball does — a 7-foot-4, 285-pound unstoppable power. Zach Edey ran away with nationwide participant of the 12 months for a second straight season, averaging 24 and 12, and was even higher this time. However the greatest purpose to imagine these Boilermakers will succeed the place so many others have failed is the supporting forged. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones have given Edey the sort of backcourt firepower it takes to win in March. Smith is second nationally in assists (Purdue is high 5 in help share) and he shot 45 p.c from 3 this season. He’s not alone in his marksmanship. The Boilermakers rank No. 2 nationally in 3-point share (40.8) and have 4 guys who’ve made greater than 45 3s. Guards win in March, and this group has successful guards. But additionally that big human for whom no person has any reply. Latest match historical past apart, that may be a championship mixture. However about that different factor …
The considerations: PTSD. We may speak about whether or not the Boilermakers’ dramatically improved guard mess around Edey will maintain up beneath stress — or the truth that the second-most necessary participant, Smith, retains taking place and looking out severely injured and scaring the dwelling daylights out of everybody in West Lafayette — however the greatest hurdle for Purdue is the psychological one. Matt Painter’s workforce has been upset by double-digit seeds in every of the final three tournaments: as a No. 4 seed by 13-seed North Texas within the 2021 first spherical, as a No. 3 seed by 15-seed Saint Peter’s within the 2022 Candy 16 and as a No. 1 seed by 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in final 12 months’s first spherical. To not point out the devastation of an extra time loss to eventual champion Virginia within the 2019 Elite Eight. That sort of repeated heartache sticks with you. Think about if standard Cinderella picks McNeese State or Samford are there ready within the Candy 16 this time. It’s arduous to imagine a bit concern and doubt wouldn’t start to creep in, and that would be the greatest problem over the primary two weekends, as Purdue chases its first Last 4 since 1980. — Tucker
Auburn (27-7)
Why they’ll win all of it: Ridiculous depth. No one in faculty basketball has extra of it than the Tigers, who by no means get drained as a result of Bruce Pearl simply retains rotating in recent legs to fly up the ground on offense and clamp down on protection. Johni Broome has performed like an All-American, however this workforce’s sum is bigger than its elements. Auburn goes 10-deep with guys averaging between 14 and 25 minutes. Pearl has a Noah’s Ark roster: two of every thing. It wears opponents down, which has rather a lot to do with all of the blowout victories. The Tigers swept two conferences with South Carolina, which completed in a four-way tie for second place within the SEC, by a mixed margin of 71 factors. They’ve gotten scorching on the precisely the proper time, rather a lot just like the 2019 workforce Pearl led to this system’s first Last 4, successful six straight coming into this match. They’re additionally the one workforce in America with a top-10 offense and protection. They’re No. 4 in KenPom, No. 5 within the NET, and in the event that they weren’t in such a stacked area, they’d most likely be a way more standard decide to make it to Phoenix.
The considerations: Auburn’s draw, for starters. And that draw is tied to the opposite concern: how the Tigers have fared towards high competitors this season. They misplaced their solely assembly with every of the highest two groups within the SEC, Tennessee and Kentucky, and have only one win towards a NET top-25 workforce. That was towards 11-loss Alabama. There’s additionally a nonconference loss to (albeit superb) Appalachian State. Auburn gained a ton of video games, 26 of them by double digits, which helps juice the metrics, however there’s simply not likely any proof it will probably beat the most effective groups within the nation. That’s the way you run up such a gaudy file and roll to an SEC match title — beating the league’s No. 5, 9 and 6 seeds — however solely earn a No. 4 seed within the NCAA Event. Auburn’s higher half of the East Area contains three 2023 Last 4 groups; San Diego State might be ready within the second spherical, UConn or FAU within the Candy 16. The underside half of that area contains Huge Ten match champion Illinois and Huge 12 match champion Iowa State, each of which have professional Last 4 aspirations. Efficiently run that gauntlet and the critics shall be quieted. — Tucker
Iowa State (27-7)
Why they’ll win all of it: As a result of the Cyclones already gained the most effective convention in America? Oh, and since doing so additionally meant stealing the “No. 1 protection” title from Houston. Might we current the next:
Iowa State held Houston to 41 factors, the fewest a workforce has allowed in a win over AP No 1 since…
Iowa State beat Wilt Chamberlain and Kansas, 39-37, on Jan. 14, 1957 in Ames.
— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) March 17, 2024
T.J. Otzelberger’s workforce has gotten loads of love the final week or two, however we’ve been on the Cyclones — regardless of doubts from Energy Rankings commenters — since early January. They possibly aren’t as wholly suffocating as Houston has been, however by way of turnovers, and particularly steals? Nobody does it higher. Iowa State averaged 10.4 steals per recreation this season, changing them (per CBB Analytics) into 21 factors off turnovers per recreation, essentially the most within the nation. Six completely different gamers common not less than one steal per recreation, however none greater than Tamin Lipsey’s 2.8 per contest; that’s essentially the most of any high-major participant in America. Talking of Lipsey, he and backcourt mate Keshon Gilbert are poised to turn out to be two of the celebrities of March. Collectively, they account for 26.1 factors, 9.2 assists, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.7 steals per recreation, and each are able to going off in any given recreation. Gilbert’s the higher scorer of the 2 — he was named most excellent participant of the Huge 12 championship, courtesy of his 16 factors, six rebounds, three assists, and three steals vs. Houston — however Lipsey has proven the proclivity for clutch moments. (See: his second half vs. BYU on March 6, which cemented ISU’s undefeated house season.) Might this be the college’s first modern-era Last 4 workforce?
The considerations: Historical past. A whopping 25 of the final 26 nationwide champions have entered the NCAA Event with a top-20 offense and a top-45 protection. (The lone exception? That will be 2014 UConn, the outlier of all outliers.) Broad strokes, we all know, however Iowa State’s offense — at the moment fifty fifth per KenPom — is way exterior that vary. The Cyclones barely common 75 factors per recreation, exterior of the highest 100 nationally, largely as a result of they’ve solely scored that a lot in 5 video games this calendar 12 months … out of 21 alternatives. They don’t take, or make, many 3s, both. Couple that with a frightening draw — aka, being in UConn’s area — and Iowa State may need to undergo a number of high-major convention champions simply to make the Last 4. Whoever comes out of the East could have survived a assassin’s row to take action. — Marks
Arizona (25-8)
Why they’ll win all of it: Solely three groups within the nation have a top-10 offense and protection coming into the Huge Dance: UConn (duh), Auburn (metrics darling), and … Arizona. There isn’t a lot Tommy Lloyd’s workforce is unhealthy at. Want to attain a bunch in a shootout? Cool, can do; the Wildcats are the third-highest-scoring workforce within the nation at 87.9 factors per recreation. Have to shut down a high-powered offense? Additionally on the menu; Arizona held all of Alabama, Duke, and Wisconsin — whose offenses rank No. 1, 7, and 13 within the nation, respectively — beneath one level per possession this season. And stylistically, the Wildcats are as versatile as they arrive. Be it Pac-12 Participant of the Yr Caleb Love out of the backcourt, wings Keshad Johnson and Pelle Larsson on the perimeter, or bigs Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas inside, Lloyd’s workforce can beat you any variety of methods. Lastly, we might be remiss to not point out Arizona’s distinctive expertise. The Wildcats, wildly, have gamers who starred in each of the final two nationwide championship video games: Love (from UNC), and Johnson (from San Diego State). What’s the worth of that to a workforce with all of the on-paper expertise to win all of it? We’re about to search out out.
The considerations: For pretty much as good a regular-season coach as Lloyd has been — he gained extra video games his first two seasons within the desert than another Division I males’s coach in historical past — we can not ignore that his first two Arizona squads bowed out early: a Candy 16 loss to Houston (as a No. 1 seed) two years in the past, and a first-round flameout towards No. 15 Princeton final 12 months. Not perfect. Plus, the Wildcats’ backcourt stays extremely unstable. Reclassified sophomore level guard Kylan Boswell has been good at occasions … and borderline horrible at others. After which there’s Love, who has been much-improved this season — it stays hilarious that he’s the ultimate Pac-12 Participant of the Yr — however who has been recognized to shoot his workforce out of video games, too. (See: his 2-of-11, four-turnover efficiency in Arizona’s Pac-12 match loss to Oregon.) Love was a key purpose why UNC reached the nationwide title in 2022 … and an equally key purpose these Tar Heels coughed up a 15-point halftime lead vs. Kansas. We’re nonetheless manifesting an Arizona vs. North Carolina Elite Eight recreation, however who is aware of which backcourt Lloyd will get any given recreation day. — Marks
Make it seven…
Tennessee (24-8)
Why they’ll win all of it: As a result of Rick Barnes has a usually elite protection, which ranks No. 3 nationally in adjusted effectivity, No. 7 in efficient field-goal protection and No. 9 in 2-point share, but additionally now a nuclear offensive weapon. SEC Participant of the Yr Dalton Knecht is arguably essentially the most harmful scorer in faculty basketball. He’s dropped 25-plus factors 11 occasions, 35-plus 5 occasions, and averaged a ridiculous 25.8 factors over the past 18 video games. Due to their 6-foot-6 flamethrower, the Volunteers have a top-30 offense for the primary time since 2019, once they went 30-6 and misplaced in extra time within the Candy 16. Junior guard Zakai Zeigler, the SEC’s help chief and Defensive Participant of the Yr, is the Vols’ engine on each ends. He and Knecht present the most effective one-two punches within the area.
GO DEEPER
Rexrode: Vols’ collapse in Nashville should gas NCAA Event journey or it’s going to be quick
The considerations: First, the historical past. Rick Barnes is a terrific coach who’s making his twenty eighth NCAA Event look — unfold throughout 4 colleges — however we should acknowledge what number of actually good groups he’s had that did not make a deep run. (Together with a second-round exit with Kevin Durant at Texas!) Simply three Elite Eights and one Last 4 (21 years in the past now) from all these bids. The final 5 tournaments at Tennessee, he’s earned a No. 3, 2, 5, 3 and 4 seed and never made it previous the Candy 16. The Vols getting blown out final week of their SEC match opener because the No. 1 seed gained’t calm any fears that one other nosedive is coming. Fifth-year senior Santiago Vescovi’s unusual disappearing act this season is arguably the most important particular purpose to doubt this specific Tennessee workforce. Over the past seven video games, Vescovi averaged simply 3.3 factors, shot 23 p.c from the sphere and made 4 of twenty-two 3s. Within the earlier two seasons, he averaged 12.9 factors and shot 39 p.c from deep. If Vescovi can’t snap out of his current funk, it’s arduous to think about these Vols lastly breaking by way of in March. — Tucker
OK, another from the highest 10
North Carolina (27-7)
Why they’ll win all of it: As a result of having the most effective guard within the nation tends to be helpful come March. R.J. Davis — the ACC Participant of the Yr who was additionally named a first-team All-American this week — has been stupendous, particularly on the heels (pun supposed) of final season’s catastrophe in Chapel Hill. Davis has been an enormous piece of that turnaround, a constant 20-plus point-per-game scorer with a aptitude for the clutch. His two late 3-pointers buried Pittsburgh — and certain the Panthers’ NCAA Event possibilities — within the ACC semifinals, and that’s simply his newest sufferer. Past Davis, although, North Carolina is exceptionally balanced: a top-25 offense, a top-5 protection, and expertise throughout the board. If being “previous” is an effective factor, then certainly the sixth-oldest workforce in America is well-prepared for any adversity that comes its manner. Talking of age: Armando Bacot is in his ultimate season of eligibility — sure, actually, we promise — and made the All-ACC defensive workforce for the primary time in his profession. When North Carolina defends prefer it’s able to, with Bacot because the quarterback on that finish, the Tar Heels are borderline unimaginable to beat. Hubert Davis is just in his third season, however he’s already coached in an NCAA championship recreation earlier than, so he is aware of the way to string collectively wins and hit all the proper notes this time of 12 months. Behind Bacot, Davis the coach, and Davis the participant, UNC has a trio that’s been near the highest of the mountain — and has all of the items to climb the final rung.
GO DEEPER
R.J. Davis is it. Simply ask Pitt
The considerations: Defensive slippage, and an offense that also goes chilly for stretches. North Carolina missed 12 straight photographs late within the second half of the ACC championship vs. NC State, which sank its probabilities of sweeping the convention regular-season and match titles. These intervals the place the rim shrinks all the way down to the dimensions of a donut nonetheless occur far too steadily; in most of UNC’s losses this season, a kind of late stretches has been guilty. And as for the protection: Per BartTorvik’s sorting software, since February started, UNC is all the way down to No. 17 in adjusted defensive effectivity. Nonetheless good, tremendous … however not elite. If NC State, enjoying its fifth recreation in 5 days, may exploit it, then so will different groups with extra firepower. And, in fact, we have now to say the looming Elite Eight matchup that extends past any basketball evaluation. There’s a world wherein Love and Arizona, if seeding holds, are the one factor stopping UNC from its second Last 4 berth in three seasons. The content material could be electrical. However UNC followers know the way harmful Love might be within the postseason — and the way motivated he’d be to be his finest self towards his former workforce. — Marks
Honorable mentions
Creighton: Might I curiosity you in a workforce with a top-25 offense and protection, which additionally returns a core from final season’s Elite Eight? Which got here inside one free throw and a questionable foul name of constructing the Last 4? Introducing Creighton! To not piggyback on Rick Pitino or something, however the Huge East was a gauntlet this season, and Creighton’s second-place end affirms that Greg McDermott’s workforce has the great things. Plus, it has one thing particular not many groups can tout: an honest-to-goodness win over UConn, courtesy of 14 made 3-pointers. (If there’s a formulation for taking down the Huskies, credit score to the Bluejays for uncovering it.) Baylor Scheierman was simply named an All-American, Ryan Kalkbrenner is likely one of the finest (and most slept-on) bigs in America — each by way of rim safety and inside scoring — and Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth have each placed on the Superman cape at occasions this season. With age, size, match expertise, and expertise, there’s rather a lot to love in regards to the Bluejays. — Marks
Illinois (26-8): The Preventing Illini are attempting to turn out to be this 12 months’s model of 2023 Miami, which entered the NCAA Event with the Eleventh-rated offense and 137th-ranked protection … then caught fireplace and made the Last 4 regardless of its incapacity to protect.It is a new period of faculty basketball, so the tried and true profile of a nationwide title contender (top-25 O and D) may not at all times apply anymore. Brad Underwood’s workforce definitely hopes so. His workforce ranks third in offensive effectivity and 97th on protection, per Bart Torvik’s web site. Terrence Shannon Jr., like Knecht, has 11 video games of 25-plus factors this season, together with a 40-burger within the Huge Ten semifinals. Teammate Marcus Domask has scored 20-plus 10 occasions. Illinois can gentle you up — it has scored 80-plus 22 occasions this season — so persistently that it may not have to lock you up. — Tucker
Increase-or-bust blue bloods
Kentucky (23-9): You already know who else is hoping to be this 12 months’s Miami? John Calipari’s workforce, which ranks fifth in offensive effectivity and 123rd in defensive effectivity. The Wildcats have manner an excessive amount of offensive firepower to be a nine-loss workforce that didn’t even win a recreation within the convention match. From All-SEC senior Antonio Reeves to nationwide freshman of the 12 months Reed Sheppard to the most effective microwave scorer within the nation, Rob Dillingham, UK’s backcourt expertise is off the charts. Kentucky leads the nation in 3-point share (41.2) and is on tempo to be the most effective taking pictures workforce in program historical past. It will be a crying disgrace to waste that, however these Cats are liable to doing precisely that due to a hopeless protection. They’ve allowed a median of 89.2 factors of their losses. The electrical offense is at all times going to present Kentucky an opportunity, however we simply can’t belief them to make their first deep run since 2019 till we see it occur. — Tucker
Duke: Like with Kentucky, expertise isn’t the Blue Devils’ concern. Jon Scheyer has landed the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 recruiting courses his first two seasons succeeding Mike Krzyzewski, yielding a core pretty much as good as any in America: All-America huge Kyle Filipowski, fellow sophomores Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor, and freshman sharpshooter Jared McCain. These 4, plus senior Jeremy Roach — who has carried out his finest 2015 Quinn Prepare dinner impression this season — mix to type the nation’s No. 7 offense, per KenPom, which might gentle opponents up from deep with ease. The 2 points with Duke, although — and the explanations none of our consultants picked them to make the Last 4 — are protection and “aggressive fireplace,” to steal Scheyer’s phrases from the ACC match. Duke is 0-5 this season when it permits 80 factors, and the dearth of a professional rim protector has been a season-long battle. As for that “fireplace” (or lack thereof)? The Blue Devils obtained pushed round at house by rival UNC of their regular-season finale … and adopted that up by getting pushed round to fellow Tobacco Highway squad NC State within the ACC quarterfinals. No workforce has ever misplaced its first convention match recreation and gone on to win the Huge Dance. Duke has the expertise, however the mentality? We’re skeptical. — Marks
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(Illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photographs of Donovan Clingan, Johni Broome and RJ Davis: Mitchell Layton, Greg Fiume and Andy Lyons / Getty Photos)