A month with out basketball is over. Properly, WNBA basketball that’s.
After an exciting finish to the Paris Olympic basketball match, the gold-medal successful Individuals have once more dispersed throughout the nation to their respective WNBA groups. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s greatest report (21-4) and wish to declare the franchise’s first title. After a little bit of a sluggish begin, the Las Vegas Aces are looming in fifth at 16-8 however may very nicely full the WNBA’s first three-peat for the reason that Houston Comets from 1997-2000. Various different title contenders (the Connecticut Solar, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) are between the 2 2023 finals contributors with important aspirations, and people on the underside half of the standings are looking for to throw their hats within the combine.
Forward of video games resuming on Thursday, listed here are 5 predictions for the remainder of the season.
Which crew will make a second-half surge?
Sabreena Service provider: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier again, and so they’ve been plus-11.4 per 100 possessions along with her on the ground. Cheryl Reeve now not has the load of the world on her shoulders after Workforce USA gained gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s greatest protection all season, regardless of slumping in July in Collier’s absence. Now absolutely wholesome, the Lynx can reap the benefits of the league’s best remaining schedule — a .441 opposing win proportion awaits, per Tankathon.
TWO-TIME. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/Iqs4yFB8Tm
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) August 11, 2024
Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream end within the prime six of the standings? Most likely not. However should you’re circling a franchise within the 7-12 vary as a crew which may look drastically totally different within the second half of the season, then hold an in depth eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The massive cause to anticipate some optimistic change is that the time without work gave the Dream’s greatest gamers time to heal. Star wing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle harm, and through Howard’s absence Atlanta gained only a single recreation. She returned for the ultimate recreation earlier than the Olympic break, earlier than serving to the U.S. 3×3 crew win bronze. Maybe simply as essential, important offseason acquisition Jordin Canada performed solely 4 video games within the first half of the season resulting from two accidents. Her return might be an essential jolt to Atlanta’s offense, which was eleventh in offensive score by the date of Howard’s harm on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Grey all taking part in collectively, Atlanta turns into a harmful group to sluggish.
What’s your largest query?
Pickman: Will any Olympic stars who will not be at the moment signed carry a franchise throughout the stretch run?
Maybe this can be a little bit of recency bias, however I’m watching to see if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) signal with a WNBA franchise to assist throughout the second half. Regardless of the prioritization rule coming into impact this Could, all three are nonetheless eligible to hitch the W in the event that they so select due to a little bit of a CBA loophole. In fact, not the entire WNBA’s contenders have the roster house to signal a kind of gamers, however all three might be difference-makers. Johannes has confirmed to make an impression in bursts when she got here off the New York Liberty bench. Williams confirmed fearlessness and high-level playmaking throughout the Olympics, and she or he has produced within the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t performed within the WNBA since 2022, however she has gained the EuroLeague MVP in every of the previous two seasons and was one of the best participant not named A’ja Wilson throughout the Paris Olympics.
Service provider: Do the Aces have sufficient within the tank to three-peat?
A’ja Wilson, Jackie Younger and Kelsey Plum every rank within the prime 15 in minutes per recreation, plus they performed 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, throughout the Olympics (not counting the All-Star Sport or different exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for probably the most video games remaining within the league at 16 and has the third-most tough schedule. The Aces at the moment sit in fifth, in order that they need to leapfrog at the very least one crew to get home-court benefit within the first spherical, and probably two extra for home-court within the WNBA semifinals. They already get each opponent’s greatest shot because the defending champions, and now they need to make up floor with a bunch that has been closely labored throughout the first a part of the season. It appears silly to wager in opposition to Wilson and Co. after the successes of the previous two years, however 2024 has been an additional problem from the bounce. On a impartial web site with relaxation, I’d choose Las Vegas in opposition to another crew, however the circumstances gained’t be that favorable for the Aces going ahead. With the ability to come from behind after setting the tempo final yr can be a brand new job for this squad.
Who will win Rookie of the Yr?
Service provider: Caitlin Clark.
Maybe no rookie has ever come into the league with such excessive expectations. Not solely was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever right into a contender, however she carried the load of the whole league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so some ways, serving to the WNBA’s recognition rocket whereas steadily bettering on the courtroom. She leads the league in assists whereas pacing rookies in factors per recreation. Clark additionally leads first-years in utilization (24.8 p.c) whereas posting the best efficient field-goal proportion (50.9 p.c) amongst rookies who common at the very least 25 minutes in at the very least 18 appearances this season.
Clark’s particular person numbers are onerous to argue, however this isn’t a cut-and-dry case as a result of Angel Reese has been extra impactful for crew success. Reese has a plus-3.4 web score whereas Clark lags behind at minus-6.8. Moreover, the Sky are 24.9 factors per 100 possessions higher when Reese performs, and the Fever are primarily impartial whether or not Clark is on or off the courtroom. Nevertheless, the crew context isn’t sufficient to beat what Clark has completed on the hardest place and whereas on the prime of the scouting report.
Pickman: Caitlin Clark.
It looks like eternally in the past that Clark final performed in a WNBA recreation. However lest anybody overlook that in her last recreation earlier than the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a brand new single-game WNBA report with 19 assists. Having to play 11 video games in 20 days, Clark and the Fever obtained off to a slower begin than many on the surface anticipated getting into this season. However since Indiana’s early-season dash, which ended June 2, Indiana is sixth in web score and Clark’s web score is almost 16 factors higher per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers and seventh in complete factors, all whereas taking part in the second-most minutes of anybody throughout the WNBA. Greater than any single counting stat, if she is ready to proceed to enhance on her first half the way in which she did by the months of June and July, then Indiana may additionally develop into the sort of opponent no different franchise desires to face within the playoffs.
GO DEEPER
Why Caitlin Clark’s Olympics omission is perhaps blessing in disguise for her rookie season
Who will win MVP?
Pickman: A’ja Wilson.
She ought to win MVP and she is going to win MVP. The most important query by the primary half of the season was whether or not will probably be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have come very shut in recent times, however with a second half to the season as robust as Wilson’s first, that might be one other facet she provides to her legacy this summer season.
Service provider: A’ja Wilson.
Precisely what Ben stated. The WNBA can begin creating this trophy for Wilson proper now as she joins the three-timers membership of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.
Who will win the WNBA championship?
Service provider: I used to be burned by selecting New York in the beginning of the 2023 common season and in the beginning of the 2023 finals, but right here I’m, tempted by the Liberty once more. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to remain recent over the ultimate month heading into the playoffs. Las Vegas retains the pinnacle teaching benefit, and the Aces have one of the best participant on this planet, however New York would possibly simply have the higher crew this time round.
Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s greatest crew up to now, with Sabrina Ionescu’s continued ascension, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable reserve choices all serving to New York bounce to a quick begin. However the Aces haven’t achieved sufficient to sway me from my preseason title choose. Positive, the eight losses are probably the most they’ve had since 2022, however with Chelsea Grey within the beginning lineup, Las Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 web score, a mark barely forward of the Liberty. Wilson is healthier and so is Jackie Younger. The Aces may not have home-court all through this postseason, however I’m not satisfied that can matter both.
(Photograph of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Pictures)