The tennis world awoke to a shock on Monday, with Aryna Sabalenka changing Iga Swiatek as No. 1 within the WTA rankings.
Sabalenka, who has gained two Grand Slam titles in a sterling season, has been engaged in a battle for supremacy with Swiatek — who has a Grand Slam title of her personal, and 5 titles in 2024 to Sabalenka’s 4 — all yr. It was anticipated to run till the season-ending WTA Tour Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, subsequent month, the place Swiatek is defending champion.
As an alternative, Swiatek misplaced 120 rating factors within the newest replace, and Sabalenka misplaced 10, resulting in her leapfrogging her rival to start out her ninth profession week because the top-ranked ladies’s tennis participant on this planet.
However neither participant took half in a match final week, so what occurred?
Why did Swiatek and Sabalenka lose their rating factors?
Underneath WTA guidelines, gamers should enter and play six WTA 500-level tournaments per season. If a participant is concerned in fewer than that, they lose the rating factors they earned from their worst outcomes of the season throughout all match classes as punishment — not simply from the 500-level occasions they did play in.
The Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo is the one WTA 500 occasion left this season and that begins at the moment (Monday, October 21), with Swiatek having performed two 500-level occasions and Sabalenka 4:
| Participant | WTA 500 | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
|
Iga Swiatek |
United Cup |
F |
|
Stuttgart |
SF |
|
|
Aryna Sabalenka |
Brisbane |
F |
|
Stuttgart |
QF |
|
|
Berlin |
QF |
|
|
Washington DC |
SF |
Neither participant can now meet the necessary determine of six, so that they have begun to lose factors. Swiatek’s worst results of the season thus far is her fourth-round defeat to Russian world No. 28 Ekaterina Alexandrova on the Miami Open in March, which is a WTA 1000. She earned 120 factors for reaching that stage of the match.
Sabalenka’s worst results of 2024 is her second-round defeat to Croatian world No. 19 Donna Vekic at February’s Dubai Tennis Championships, additionally a WTA 1000, for which she gained 10 factors. Eradicating these factors erases Swiatek’s lead over Sabalenka, and takes the latter to the summit:
| Week | Iga Swiatek | Aryna Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
|
October 14 |
9785 |
9716 |
|
October 21 |
9665 |
9706 |
Will Swiatek and Sabalenka lose additional factors?
Sure. Their next-worst outcomes shall be scrapped from their factors totals within the subsequent rankings replace on Monday October 28, after the Pan Pacific Open concludes subsequent Sunday October 27. Swiatek’s subsequent worst result’s her 130 factors for reaching the third spherical of the Australian Open and Wimbledon, however her subsequent factors to drop are the 195 she earned for attending to the semifinals of the WTA 500 in Stuttgart. Sabalenka will lose 65 factors, for dropping within the third spherical of the Miami Open.
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Who shall be world No. 1 on the finish of the yr?
This can nonetheless be determined on the WTA Finals. The percentages are presently in Sabalenka’s favor due to how extensively Swiatek outperformed her final yr — an initially unusual thought that’s on the coronary heart of the tennis rating system.
Swiatek gained the WTA Finals in 2023, profitable all of her matches in straight units and thrashing Jessica Pegula 6-1, 6-0 within the ultimate in Cancun, Mexico, to earn 1500 factors. Sabalenka misplaced considered one of her matches within the round-robin stage (to Pegula) after which misplaced to Swiatek within the semifinals, incomes 625 factors. These factors will drop off their rankings on Monday October 28.
Making use of the pending level penalty, and the lack of final yr’s factors from the WTA Finals, Swiatek should surmount a deficit of 1,046 factors in Riyadh to reclaim the No. 1 rating:
| Participant | Factors | Rating |
|---|---|---|
|
Aryna Sabalenka |
9016 |
#1 |
|
Iga Swiatek |
7970 |
#2 |
Has Swiatek overhauled a rankings deficit earlier than?
Sure, and he or she did it towards Sabalenka, this time final yr. Going into the WTA Finals, Sabalenka was world No. 1, with a lead of 630 factors over Swiatek. However Swiatek then destroyed the sector, dropping simply 20 video games in 10 units. Pegula, who confronted her within the ultimate, was clear as to why: “She clearly actually wished that rating,” the American instructed a information convention after their ultimate. “You would inform by the way in which she was competing right here… She was, like at the moment, crushing folks.”
After Swiatek withdrew from the WTA 1000 China Open in September (the place she would have been defending champion, and so dropped 1,100 factors), Sabalenka stated that she hoped they’d face one another once more in the course of the season of their battle to complete prime of the rankings.
Aryna Sabalenka is world No. 1 for the second time in her profession. (Wang He / Getty Photos)
“I hope she’ll work out the coach scenario and he or she’ll be again within the finals in her greatest form,” Sabalenka stated in a information convention on the Wuhan Open, additionally in China. “Hopefully we will play towards one another there.”
The “coach scenario”, wherein Swiatek parted firm with Tomas Wiktorowski with whom she gained 4 Grand Slam titles, has certainly been found out. Swiatek has since employed Wim Fissette, who coached Naomi Osaka, Kim Clijsters and Angelique Kerber to Grand Slam titles. All three are former world No. 1s.
(High images: Getty Photos)