Why Ethiopia is so alarmed by an Egypt-Somalia alliance

A navy alliance between Somalia and Egypt is ruffling feathers within the fragile Horn of Africa, upsetting Ethiopia particularly – and there are worries the fallout may develop into greater than a disagreement.

The tensions ratcheted up this week with the arrival of two Egyptian C-130 navy aeroplanes in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, signalling the start of the deal signed earlier in August throughout a state go to by the Somali president to Cairo.

The plan is for as much as 5,000 Egyptian troopers to hitch a new-look African Union power on the finish of the yr, with one other 5,000 reportedly to be deployed individually.

Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its battle towards al-Qaeda-linked militants and is at loggerheads with Egypt over a mega dam it constructed on the River Nile, stated it couldn’t “stand idle whereas different actors take measures to destabilise the area”.

Somalia’s defence minister hit again, saying Ethiopia ought to cease “wailing” as everybody “will reap what they sowed” – a reference to their diplomatic relations which have been on a downward spiral for months.

All of it comes all the way down to the ambitions of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who needs his landlocked nation to have a port. Ethiopia misplaced its entry to the ocean when Eritrea seceded within the early Nineties.

On New Yr’s Day, Mr Abiy signed a controversial cope with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a 20km (12-mile) part of its shoreline for 50 years to arrange a naval base.

It may additionally doubtlessly result in Ethiopia formally recognising the breakaway republic – one thing Somaliland is pushing onerous for.

Somaliland broke away from Somalia greater than 30 years in the past, however Mogadishu regards it very a lot as a part of its territory – and described the deal as an act of “aggression”.

Somalia fears such a transfer would possibly set a precedent and encourage different nations to recognise Somaliland’s independence, geopolitical analyst Jonathan Fenton-Harvey advised the BBC.

He added that neighbouring Djibouti was additionally nervous it may hurt its personal port-dependent economic system, as Ethiopia has historically relied on Djibouti for imports.

In reality in an try and deescalate tensions, Djibouti’s international minister has advised the BBC his nation is able to supply Ethiopia “100%” entry to certainly one of its ports.

“It is going to be within the port of Tadjoura – 100km [62 miles] from the Ethiopia border,” Mahmoud Ali Youssouf advised BBC Deal with Africa TV.

That is undoubtedly a change of tune for as just lately as final yr, a senior presidential adviser stated Djibouti was reluctant to supply its neighbour unfettered entry to the Purple Sea.

Makes an attempt thus far to calm tensions – by Turkey – have failed, with Somalia insisting it is not going to budge till Ethiopia recognises its sovereignty over Somaliland.

Somalia has not solely introduced its Nile enemy Egypt into the combination, but in addition introduced that Ethiopian troops wouldn’t be a part of the AU power from subsequent January.

That is when the AU’s third peace assist operation begins – the primary one was deployed in 2007 months after Ethiopian troops crossed over the border to assist battle al-Shabab Islamist militants, who then managed the Somali capital.

There are not less than 3,000 Ethiopian troops beneath the present AU mission, in line with the Reuters information company.

Final week, the Somali prime minister additionally stated Ethiopia must withdraw its different 5-7,000 troopers stationed in a number of areas beneath separate bilateral agreements – until it withdrew from the port cope with Somaliland.

Ethiopia sees this as a slap within the face for, as its international minister put it, “the sacrifices Ethiopian troopers have paid” for Somalia.

The withdrawal of troops would additionally depart Ethiopia susceptible to jihadist assaults, Christopher Hockney, a senior researcher on the Royal United Providers Institute, advised the BBC.

The deliberate deployment of Egyptian troops alongside its japanese border would additionally make Ethiopia significantly apprehensive, he added.

Egypt sees Ethiopia’s Nile dam – within the west of the nation – as an existential risk – and has warned previously that it’ll take “measures” ought to its safety be threatened.

Egypt accuses Ethiopia of threatening its provide of water with the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd).

This started in 2011 on the Blue Nile tributary in Ethiopia’s northern-western highlands, from the place 85% of the Nile’s water circulate.

Egypt stated Ethiopia pushed ahead with the mission in full “disregard” of the pursuits and rights of downstream nations and their water safety.

It additionally argued {that a} 2% discount in water from the Nile may end result within the lack of round 200,000 acres (81,000 hectares) of irrigated land.

For Ethiopia the dam is seen as a means of revolutionising the nation by producing electrical energy for 60% of the inhabitants and offering a relentless circulate of electrical energy for companies.

The newest diplomatic efforts to work out how the dam ought to function – and decide how a lot water will circulate downstream to Sudan and Egypt – fell aside final December.

Egypt sees its navy cope with Somalia as “historic” – within the phrases of Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi – and a attainable likelihood to settle scores over the mega dam.

Certainly the Nile dispute could effectively play out in Somalia, warns Dr Hassan Khannenje, the director of the Horn Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research.

It may doubtlessly result in a “low-scale inter-state battle” between Ethiopia and Egypt if their troops meet on the Somalia border.

Somaliland has additionally warned that the institution of Egyptian navy bases inside Somalia may destabilise the area.

Each Ethiopia and Somalia are already dealing with their very own inner strife – Ethiopia with low-level rebellions in a number of areas and Somalia, recovering from a damaging 30-year civil conflict, nonetheless has al-Shabab to take care of.

Consultants say neither can afford additional warfare – and extra unrest would inevitably result in additional migration.

Dr Khannenje advised the BBC that if a battle broke out, it may additional complicate the geopolitics of the Purple Sea by drawing in different gamers and additional have an effect on world commerce.

A minimum of 17,000 ships undergo the Suez Canal every year, that means that 12% of annual world commerce passes by means of the Purple Sea, amounting to $1tn (£842bn) value of products, in line with delivery monitor Lloyd’s Record.

For that reason, nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey have been eager to forge partnerships with African nations like Somalia that border the Purple Sea.

In response to Mr Harvey, Turkey and the UAE stand a greater likelihood at mediating and discovering a center floor.

The UAE has closely invested in Somaliland’s Berbera port and holds important affect over Ethiopia due to its investments there.

All eyes can be on the subsequent diplomatic push by Turkey, which has ties with each Ethiopia and Somalia. Talks are resulting from begin in mid-September.

Extra reporting by the BBC’s Ashley Lime, Waihiga Mwaura, Kalkidan Yibeltal & Juneydi Farah.