Getty PhotosNorth Korea has accused South Korea of flying drones into its capital, ratcheting up tensions which have been simmering for months.
The drones allegedly scattered propaganda leaflets over Pyongyang in what the North described as a provocation that might result in “armed battle and even warfare”.
After levelling these allegations on the South on Friday, Pyongyang stated it had ordered border troops to be ready to fireplace. South Korea in flip stated it was prepared to reply, and warned that if the protection of its residents was threatened it might sign the “finish of the North Korean regime.”
Then, on Tuesday, the North blew up sections of two roads that related it to South Korea, making good on an earlier menace.
These flare-ups are the most recent in a string of exchanges between the 2 Koreas, which have seen tensions rise to their highest level in years for the reason that North’s chief Kim Jong Un declared in January that the South is his regime’s primary enemy.
What is going on?
On 11 October, North Korea’s overseas ministry accused the South of sending drones to Pyongyang at night time over the course of two weeks. It stated that leaflets dispersed by the drones contained “inflammatory rumours and garbage”.
Kim’s influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, warned Seoul of “horrible penalties” if the alleged drone flights occurred once more. She later stated there was “clear proof” that “navy gangsters” from the South had been behind the alleged provocations.
North Korea has launched blurry photos of what it stated had been the drones flying within the sky, in addition to footage allegedly displaying the leaflets, however there isn’t any method of independently verifying their claims.
Whereas South Korea initially denied flying drones into the North, its Joint Chiefs of Employees later stated that it may neither verify nor deny Pyongyang’s allegation.
There was native hypothesis that the drones had been flown by activists, who’ve been sending the identical supplies to the North utilizing balloons.
Park Sang-hak, the chief of the Free North Korea Motion Coalition, denied North Korea’s declare concerning the drone incursion, stating, “We didn’t ship drones to North Korea”.
On Monday, Kim met the top of the military, navy chiefs, the ministers of state safety and defence, and prime officers, the North’s official information company KCNA stated.
There, Kim set the “path of rapid navy motion” and tasked officers with the “operation of the warfare deterrent and the train of the precise to self-defence”.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Employees public relations officer, Lee Sung-joon, stated the North may mount “small-scale provocations” similar to small explosions on roads connecting the Koreas.
Then got here the explosions on the symbolic Gyeongui and Donghae roads.
Whereas each roads have lengthy been shuttered, destroying them sends a message that Kim doesn’t need to negotiate with the South, in response to analysts.
Following the explosions, the South Korean navy stated it had fired weapons on its facet of the border as a present of pressure, and had heightened surveillance of the North.
Hours later, the federal government of Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul, designated 11 inter-Korean border areas as “hazard zones” in a bid to cease folks from sending anti-North propaganda leaflets throughout the border.
“Gyeonggi Province has decided that the act of scattering leaflets towards North Korea is a particularly harmful act that might set off a navy battle,” Kim Sung-joong, vice governor of Gyeonggi Province, stated in a media briefing.
The scattering of such leaflets may threaten the “lives and security of our residents”, Kim added, as “inter-Korean relations are quickly deteriorating”.
What does this present?
Analysts say the drone incident means that North Korea is shoring up inside help by making it seem as if threats in opposition to the nation are escalating.
Utilizing phrases like “separate states” in reference to the South, and dropping phrases like “compatriots” and “unification”, is a part of this technique, stated Professor Kang Dong-wan, who teaches political science and diplomacy at Dong-a College in Busan.
“The North Korean regime depends on the politics of worry and wishes an exterior enemy,” Prof Kang stated. “Every time tensions rise, North Korea emphasises exterior threats to spice up loyalty to the regime.”
Analysts say the tit-for-tat between the 2 Koreas reveals how they’re locked in a “rooster recreation”, with each side unwilling to blink first.
“Neither facet is prepared to make concessions at this level,” stated Professor Kim Dong-yup from the College of North Korean Research in Seoul.
As there’s mutual mistrust, Seoul “must strategically think about the best way to handle the disaster”, Prof Kim added.
Are the Koreas headed for warfare?
Not for the time being, analysts say.
“I doubt that the scenario would escalate to the extent of warfare. North Korea is exploiting navy confrontation to strengthen inside cohesion,” Prof Kang stated.
“I query North Korea’s skill to provoke a full-scale warfare. The regime is effectively conscious of the extreme penalties such a battle would carry,” Prof Kim stated.
The newest spat over alleged drone flights will most certainly stay a “verbal combat”, stated Prof Nam Sung-wook, who teaches North Korean research at Korea College in Seoul.
As a result of Seoul and Pyongyang know that they cannot bear the price of a full-blown warfare, Prof Nam stated, “the probability of really utilizing nuclear weapons is low”.
What’s the huge image?
The 2 Koreas are technically nonetheless at warfare since they didn’t signal a peace treaty when the Korean Warfare resulted in 1953.
Reuniting with the South had at all times been a key, if more and more unrealistic, a part of the North’s ideology for the reason that inception of the state – till Kim deserted reunification with the South in January.
Kim has introduced North Korea nearer to Russia beneath Vladimir Putin, inserting him at odds with the US and the West, that are South Korea’s key allies.
Additionally important are North Korea’s long-standing ties with China, arguably its most essential ally. Within the wake of the drone incident, a spokesperson from China’s overseas ministry on Tuesday referred to as on all events “to keep away from additional escalation of conflicts” on the peninsula.
Tensions within the Korean peninsula are rising because the US presidential marketing campaign enters the house stretch.