For my penultimate Barchart article in 2025, I wished to revisit Indivior (INDV), a Virginia-based developer of opioid dependancy remedies that I final coated in early September.
On the time, INDV inventory had simply moved up 11 spots into the highest 50 on Barchart’s High 100 Shares to Purchase listing. On Monday, the inventory rose 12 spots to thirty eighth, eight locations increased than in early fall.
Previously 364 days, Indivior’s share worth has risen almost 200%, with 47% of the beneficial properties within the three-plus months since my September article.
There is no such thing as a query that INDV is on the transfer. The difficulty for traders is whether or not it might preserve momentum in 2026.
As the corporate turns into extra worthwhile and provides new remedies to its lineup, its price-to-earnings ratio continues to fall. That’s a win/win in case you’re a shareholder.
Whereas it’s unimaginable to know what 2026 holds, right here’s why Indivior inventory has a good chance to maintain transferring increased within the subsequent 12 months.
After I final wrote about Indivior, it had six months within the books for fiscal 2025, producing a GAAP revenue of $65 million, 281% increased than a $36 million loss within the six months a yr earlier.
A lot of the income have been from Sublocade — 68% of its $568 million in six-month web income — the corporate’s once-monthly injection to deal with opioid dependancy, releasing a bit of little bit of buprenorphine each day all through the month, just about eliminating the ups and downs from remedy.
For all of 2025, the corporate expects income and adjusted EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $1.055 billion and $287.5 million, respectively, on the midpoint of its steerage.
In late October, it launched its Q3 2025 outcomes. It studies fourth-quarter and year-end ends in mid-February.
The corporate’s 2025 steerage, issued in late October, raised each income and adjusted EBITDA projections. It now expects income of $1.2 billion, up $145 million from late July, and an adjusted EBITDA of $410 million, $122.5 million increased than its earlier estimate.
The brand new steerage implies 1% income development and 15% adjusted EBITDA development over 2024. Extra importantly, its adjusted EBITDA margin ought to enhance by 757 foundation factors to 34.17% in 2025.
Whereas revenues haven’t moved an excessive amount of, non-GAAP profitability positive has. Moreover, its GAAP loss in 2024 of $48 million must be its final annual loss within the close to future. As of Sept. 30, its nine-month web revenue was $108 million, up from a $ 14 million loss a yr earlier.
What’s to not like?
On Dec. 22, Indivior was added to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, arguably the small-cap index with increased high quality firms than the Russell 2000. However I digress.
“We’re dedicated to rising SUBLOCADE®, our primary prescribed, first-in-class long-acting injectable remedy for average to extreme opioid use dysfunction, as we leverage our new and simplified working mannequin,” said CEO Joe Ciaffoni within the press launch marking the inclusion.
As I discussed in September, Ciaffoni has mentioned that 2025 is a transition yr, positioning the corporate for development in 2026. A part of this transition included hiring Pat Barry as CCO (Chief Commercialization Officer), a 30-year veteran within the prescribed drugs business, to speed up its commercialization plan.
A key a part of this plan is to seize a bigger share of the U.S. LAI (long-acting injectables) market. As of the second quarter, solely 8% of its Sublocade income was from the LAI market.
Barry mentioned the corporate’s Sublocade plans extensively through the Q3 2025 convention name.
“We additionally noticed 11% year-over-year development within the variety of lively SUBLOCADE prescribers and 11% development in these prescribing for 5 or extra sufferers. The variety of SUBLOCADE sufferers over the trailing 12 months additionally grew 5% year-over-year. These outcomes are vital early indicators of our business execution,” Barry said.
As Ciaffoni mentioned within the convention name, the corporate’s strikes to simplify its enterprise pays dividends in 2026. A $150 million discount of its annual working bills will guarantee its working finances doesn’t exceed $450 million. Its 2025 plan was between $510 million and $520 million.
It would do extra for Sublocade whereas spending much less. That’s what you wish to see.
Analysts count on Indivior to earn $2.86 a share in 2026. Its share worth is 12.5 instances this estimate. The inventory’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is 37.1x, in response to S&P International Market Intelligence.
Whereas solely seven analysts cowl INDV inventory, all price it a Purchase, with a mean 12-month goal worth of $37.86, simply over $2 above its present share worth.
As Indivior delivers additional progress on its commercialization plans in 2026, there’s risk that present analysts protecting its inventory will elevate their targets, bringing further analyst protection to the corporate. That ought to produce increased multiples and a better share worth.
I usually don’t get enthusiastic about healthcare shares. Nonetheless, Indivior’s opioid focus and push into LAIs counsel that is one time the place perhaps I ought to.
In 3-5 years, shopping for at $36 must be a profitable hand.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially printed on Barchart.com
