Apple might have been criticised for its lack of innovation and for falling behind within the AI race, whereas additionally persevering with to lose expertise to different Silicon Valley giants. Nevertheless, one factor that is still sturdy, regardless of intense competitors, is the iPhone. The newly launched iPhone 17 sequence, specifically, seems to be producing vital client curiosity, serving to maintain Cupertino afloat and sustaining the corporate’s place on the high of the worldwide smartphone market.
In actual fact, Apple is about to ship extra smartphones than Samsung in 2025, based on analysts at Counterpoint Analysis. The analysis agency predicts that Apple will surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments for the primary time in 14 years. Cupertino might ship 243 million telephones this yr, whereas Samsung will ship 235 million smartophones. Samsung final occupied the highest place because the world’s primary cellphone producer.
“Past the extremely constructive market reception for the iPhone 17 sequence, the important thing driver behind the upgraded cargo outlook lies within the substitute cycle reaching its inflection level. Customers who bought smartphones through the COVID-19 growth are actually coming into their improve section,” Counterpoint Analysis Senior Analyst Yang Wang mentioned within the word.
The analysis agency forecasts that Apple will maintain the highest spot within the world smartphone market by way of 2029. Apple’s iPhone 17 sequence, which consists of three fashions together with the top-end iPhone 17 Professional Max, is getting sturdy curiosity throughout key areas, Counterpoint mentioned. iPhone shipments are projected to rise 10 % in 2025 in contrast with final yr, far outpacing the three.3 % progress anticipated for the general smartphone market.
In accordance with Counterpoint, iPhone 17 gross sales within the US through the first 4 weeks of its launch had been up 12 per cent in contrast with the iPhone 16 sequence (which doesn’t embody the lower-cost iPhone 16e mannequin). Throughout the identical interval, iPhone 17 gross sales in China had been up 18 per cent versus the earlier mannequin sequence, with Counterpoint noting that the iPhone Air was not included within the preliminary launch in China.
Samsung, in the meantime, might face challenges within the low-to mid-range phase from Chinese language manufacturers, which might derail the South Korean firm’s probabilities of remaining on the high of the worldwide smartphone market.
Counterpoint additionally famous that Apple has “benefited from lower-than-expected” impacts from US tariffs and a softening of geopolitical tensions.
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“These customers are additionally more likely to improve to a brand new iPhone within the coming years. These elements will kind a large demand base, which is anticipated to maintain iPhone cargo progress over the approaching quarters,” Counterpoint Analysis mentioned.
The iPhone stays Apple’s greatest money cow. (Picture credit score: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Specific)
One other main catalyst past the iPhone 17 sequence, one that’s each notable and impactful, is the marketplace for used iPhones, which stays an enormous phase for any model. A large 358 million second-hand iPhones had been bought between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.
Counterpoint additionally notes that the influence of “Apple Intelligence” and the way in which it has been rolled out has not affected the iPhone sequence. This means that customers nonetheless don’t prioritise AI options as a lot as normal enhancements similar to higher battery life, digital camera efficiency, and design.
With Apple anticipated to launch the funds iPhone 17e and its first foldable iPhone in 2026, Counterpoint says Apple’s fundamentals and its future iPhone lineup look sturdy, which can solely profit the corporate and its market share. Nevertheless, rising RAM and smartphone element costs might put some strain on the smartphone market in 2026.
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Surprisingly, Counterpoint’s forecast lack outlook for Apple in India, although the nation is more and more changing into one among its sturdy markets. In Q3, Apple’s market share within the Indian smartphone phase reached 10.4 per cent, a year-on-year progress of 25.6 per cent, based on information from the Worldwide Information Company (IDC). And whereas that’s spectacular progress – backed by each on-line and offline presence and the truth that Indians nonetheless view the iPhone as an “aspirational” product, Apple’s home gross sales of $9 billion in 2024–25 (FY25) accounted for simply over 2 per cent of Apple’s world revenues of $416.1 billion, based on filings within the US and India.
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